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ANALYSIS
JUNE 2 2017 - 10:50AM
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Paris climate deal: Trump's 'withdrawal' could take until next US election
Paul McGeough
713 reading now Show comments
Washington: Donald Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Paris Accord guara
ntees that climate change likely will be a central issue when he faces re-electi
on in 2020.
That is because it will take that long to execute the American withdrawal from t
he landmark global pact by which all but a few nations are tackling the global w
arming crisis.
Play Video
Trump's climate call
US President Donald Trump has withdrawn America from the Paris climate change ag
reement, but Australia will not follow according to the energy minister.
Hailed by senior Republicans and booed by big names in corporate America and in
the environmental movement, Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announceme
nt even summoning a brass band to the Rose Garden at the White House.
The decision amounts to a diplomatic thunderclap, raising questions about global
leadership on a crisis that science and much of corporate America says is real;
and prompting speculation about the willingness of other countries to keep thei
r carbon emission pledges when Washington is walking away from its volunteered c
ommitments.
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But Trump did have a bob each way in walking away from the deal struck by his pr
edecessor, he greatly pleased his base supporters. But if that was the headline
news, he threw in a rider.
"We're getting out, but we will start to negotiate and we will see if we can mak
e a deal that's fair. If we can, that's great. If we can't, that's fine we'll begi
n negotiations to re-enter either the Paris accord or an entirely new transactio
n, on terms that are fair to the US, its businesses, its workers, its people, it
s taxpayers".
In keeping with his recurring theme that other countries have been taking advant
age of the US, Trump said: "The rest of the world applauded when we signed the P
aris agreement. They went wild. They were so happy. For the simple reason that i
t put our country, the United States of America, which we all love, at a very, v
ery big economic disadvantage".
Claiming his decision would save the US from a "draconian financial" impact and
punishing "onerous energy restrictions", Trump argued that 2.7 million jobs woul
d have been lost to the accord by 2025, citing a study that is challenged by env
ironmental groups and some economists. The deal, he insisted, put the United Sta
tes at a "permanent disadvantage" with China, India among others.
Turned his back on the accord: US President Donald Trump exits after announcing
the US would withdraw from the Paris ...
Turned his back on the accord: US President Donald Trump exits after announcing
the US would withdraw from the Paris climate accord. Photo: Bloomberg
More than 190 nations signed the accord in December 2015 and since then, 147 gov
ernments, who account for more than 80 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas em
issions, have formally ratified it. Global corporations, like energy giants Roya
l Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and BP, also have thrown their support behind the acco
rd.
But as a president who likes to act on the stroke of a pen, Trump will have to b
e patient. The accord bars any country from backing out in the first three years
, after which they are required to give one year's notice a process that would s
ee Trump formalising the US exit from the accord on the eve of the next presiden
tial election.
President Donald Trump speaks about the US role in the Paris climate change acco
rd.
President Donald Trump speaks about the US role in the Paris climate change acco
rd. Photo: AP
Alternately, Trump could compress that time line to 12 months, by withdrawing th
e US from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which provides the
diplomatic architecture for the Paris Accord. But that might prove politically
awkward it was a treaty signed not by Obama, but by Republican President George
HW Bush and which was ratified with a big, bipartisan vote in the Senate.
David Doniger, director of the climate program at the Natural Resources Defence
Council, told The Washington Post: "Trump is underestimating the political and d
iplomatic blowback the business community is against withdrawal. A majority of A
mericans are against withdrawal. If Trump sticks his finger in every other forei
gn leaders' eye on Paris, who will lift a finger for him when he wants something
from them? On top of the recent trip, Trump will have squandered more US influe
nce and power in two weeks than any other president."
Tumbs up: Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist.
Tumbs up: Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist. Photo: Bloomberg
The decision was billed as a victory for Trump's strategist Stephen Bannon and h
is factional warriors in the administration. And a stinging loss for the moderat
es including National Economic Council director Gary Cohn; first daughter Ivanka
Trump, who argued that Trump could have undone Obama's environment regulations
without quitting the accord. It is a move Doniger predicts would significantly d
amage US relations with the rest of the world.
Obama emerged from his post-presidential purdah with a scathing condemnation. In
a statement, he said: "The nations that remain in the Paris Agreement will be t
he nations that reap the benefits in jobs and industries created.
Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announcement in the Rose Garden of the
White House.
Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announcement in the Rose Garden of the
White House. Photo: AP
"I believe the United States of America should be at the front of the pack. But
even in the absence of American leadership; even as this administration joins a
small handful of nations that reject the future; I'm confident that our states,
cities, and businesses will step up and do even more to lead the way, and help p
rotect for future generations the one planet we've got."
Despite the angst in the White House, the decision was hardly a surprise. Trump'
s declaration that climate change was a hoax invented by the Chinese and his cla
im that the deal was bad for the US economically were rallying calls throughout
his election campaign.
Members of Trump's cabinet applaud as Trump as he announces his decision on the
climate accord.
Members of Trump's cabinet applaud as Trump as he announces his decision on the
climate accord. Photo: Bloomberg
But in holding to his campaign promise, Trump has added the US to a small, exclu
sive global alliance - Syria and Nicaragua are the only other nations that rejec
ted the climate pact.
At the same time, actually keeping a campaign promise is a stark departure from
Trump's practice of reneging on them, especially those that deal with foreign po
licy.
Protesters gather outside the White House in Washington, on Thursday.
Protesters gather outside the White House in Washington, on Thursday. Photo: AP
Trump's big climate decision overshadowed further stalling on his promise to shi
ft the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem he announced a six-month
deferral.
The climate decision is in keeping with Trump's strongman boasts about upending
the world order.
But just as he seems to have cold feet on the embassy decision, he has also done
a turnaround on promises to declare China a currency manipulator and lift sanct
ions on Russia; and on his claims that NATO was "obsolete".
Seemingly Trump has decided he can live with the Iran nuclear deal; and he enthu
siastically launched a missile strike on Syria after long saying that he would n
ot be that kind of president.
Introducing Trump to a cheering, stage-managed crowd of administration figures a
nd their staff, Vice President Mike Pence said: "Our President is choosing to pu
t American jobs and American consumers first. Our President is choosing to put A
merican energy and American industry first. And by his action today, President T
rump is choosing to put the forgotten men and women first".
In a memo to supporters in the hours before Thursday's announcement, the White H
ouse declared: "The Paris Accord is a BAD deal for Americans, and the President'
s action today is keeping his campaign promise to put American workers first the
accord was negotiated poorly by the Obama Administration and signed out of desp
eration".
Activist billionaire Tom Steyer? had a very different take. "If Donald Trump pul
ls the US out of the Paris Agreement he will be committing a traitorous act of w
ar against the American people. Trump has abdicated American leadership and sent
a clear message to both our allies and enemies alike. In the search for courage
ous and moral solutions to the challenges of the 21st century, don't count on Am
erica to lead."
Greenpeace USA executive director Annie Leonard piled on: "This is disgraceful.
By withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, the Trump administration has t
urned America from a global climate leader into a global climate deadbeat".
Centre for Biological Diversity executive director Kieran Suckling also weighed
in. "Trump just confirmed his total contempt for our planet's future," he said c
ondemning "this reckless rejection of international climate cooperation" that wa
s "turning our country into a rogue nation".
Gina McCarthy, who was Obama's EPA administrator when the Paris agreement was ne
gotiated, was bamboozled by Trump's decision.
"This decision makes zero sense from a public health or an economic perspective.
It's contrary to science and his obligation to protect America's kids and futur
e generations. It's contrary to investors and CEOs saying we need to lean in on
climate action, not bury our heads in the sand. And it's contrary to... the vast
majority of Americans calling for our country to do more."
General Electric boss Jeff Immelt? tweeted that he was "disappointed with today'
s decision on the Paris Agreement. Climate change is real. Industry must now lea
d and not depend on government".
But Trump would have none of that.
"It is time to put Youngstown, Ohio; Detroit, Michigan; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylv
ania., along with many, many other locations within our great country before Par
is, France," he said. "It is time to make America great again."
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