Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake
frequency for an intraplate fault
Randolph T. Williamsa,1, Laurel B. Goodwina, Warren D. Sharpb, and Peter S. Mozleyc
a
Department of Geoscience, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI 53706; bBerkeley Geochronology Center, Berkeley, CA 94709; and cEarth and
Environmental Science, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM 87801
Edited by Barbara A. Romanowicz, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and approved March 21, 2017 (received for review October 31, 2016)
Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at
timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based
mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary
faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now,
because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally
long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional
paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term varia-
tions in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults
therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for
intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earth-
quake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earth-
quake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and
clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins
in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mex-
ico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals
over much of the past 550 kathe longest direct record of seis-
mic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct
seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that
for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earth-
quakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake
recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted
by a cluster of earthquakes at 430 ka. The carbon isotope com-
position of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid
degassing of CO2, suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid
source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence
intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-
valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seis-
mic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other
intraplate faults.
earthquake | fault | geochronology | seismic | hazard
R ecent increases in the rate of seismicity associated with
subsurface wastewater injection have generated substantial
interest in the seismic cycles of intraplate faults (14). Un-
fortunately, increasing seismicity in the continental interior has
outpaced our understanding of the processes that govern natural
earthquake recurrence on these faults. The seismic cycles of
plate boundary faults are much better known, although the exact
nature of their earthquake recurrence distributions remains
much debated (5, 6). At the heart of this debate lies a funda-
mental question: Are seismogenic faults ever controlled by a
stress-renewal process that can be approximated by elastic re-
bound theory? The latter states that stress buildup will be ac-
commodated elastically until shear stress on the fault reaches a
threshold value that will allow failure.
If seismogenic faults are governed by a renewal process, then
elastic rebound theory predicts that earthquakes will be pro-
duced quasiperiodically (7) (i.e., occur at regular intervals and
therefore be time-dependent) with steady tectonic loading.
However, an alternative view posits that spatial and temporal
variations in fault strength and/or mechanical interactions be-
tween adjacent faults can lead to either a random or a clustered
distribution of seismic events for a given fault (813). This view has
led to greater use of time-independent and clustered earth-
quake recurrence models. Although an increasingly large body of
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1617945114
research has shown that many seismogenic plate-boundary faults
around the world exhibit quasiperiodic failure (1417), compara-
tively slow recurrence rates in conjunction with short paleoseismic
records have until now prevented robust assessment of earthquake
recurrence intervals for intraplate faults. We address this fun-
damental knowledge gap by using a significantly different ap-
proach; direct dating of coseismic veins preserved as part of the
long-term rock record.
We studied an exhumed section of the Loma Blanca normal
fault, which juxtaposes <2.6 Ma sediments and sandstones
against 5.3- to 1.8-Ma fluvial sands in the Socorro Basin of the Rio
AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
Grande rift of New Mexico (18) (Fig. 1). Maximum displacement
EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC,
across the Loma Blanca fault is 500 m (21). Fault-scarp mor-
phology and offset Pleistocene terrace deposits preserved in other
locations along the fault record a history of recurrent, surface-
rupturing earthquakes (18). Assuming rupture of the entire
23-km-long fault trace, earthquake magnitudes estimated for the
Loma Blanca fault are 6.26.9 (22). This magnitude is a min-
imum estimate, because it neglects possible multifault events,
which may produce larger earthquakes (23).
Within the exhumed section of the fault, sand injectites and
calcite veins are largely restricted to the hanging wall damage
zone near and within a relay zone between two fault segments
(Fig. 1, South Fracture Zone) (20). Sand injectites in this area
record early, coseismic fluid overpressure and/or liquefaction,
which occurred during ground shaking before lithification. Cal-
cite veins postdate cementation of the sand injectites. They occur
in dominant fault-strike-subparallel and subordinate fault-strike-
subperpendicular sets. The veins are hosted by extension frac-
tures, exhibit crack-seal microstructures, and commonly contain
Significance
U-Th dating of coseismic calcite veins in the Loma Blanca fault,
New Mexico, quantifies an earthquake history spanning more
than 400,000 years, the longest paleoseismic record ever
documented for any fault. Data show that earthquakes on the
Loma Blanca fault generally occurred at regular intervals,
rather than aperiodically as previously hypothesized for faults
in similar tectonic environments. However, periodic earth-
quake slip was interrupted by a relatively brief interval of in-
creased earthquake frequency. Stable isotope data indicative
of rapid CO2 degassing suggest this interval was associated
with elevated pore-fluid pressure. The Loma Blanca fault thus
provides a record of naturally induced seismicity during
which fault-valve behavior is inferred to have reduced earth-
quake recurrence intervals.
Author contributions: R.T.W. designed research; R.T.W., L.B.G., and P.S.M. performed research;
R.T.W. and W.D.S. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; R.T.W., L.B.G., W.D.S., and
P.S.M. analyzed data; and R.T.W., L.B.G., W.D.S., and P.S.M. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
1
To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: rtwilliams@wisc.edu.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.
1073/pnas.1617945114/-/DCSupplemental.
PNAS Early Edition | 1 of 6

Rio Salado
New
Mexico
Tsp
Loma B
lanc
Qss
a Fault
QTsa
Loma Pelada F
Qsa
South
Fracture Zone
au
Arro
lt
10656
yo
Tpl Ch Qac
ant
e 0.5 km
3416
Fig. 1. Simplified geologic map of an exhumed section of the Loma Blanca
fault overlain on satellite imagery (map data: Google, Landsat/Copernicus).
Fault is dashed where inferred. (Inset) Location of detailed map in New
Mexico. Geologic units: Qac (yellow), Quaternary alluvium; QSa (brown),
Quaternary unit A; Qss (uncolored), stabilized Holocene deposits; QTsa
(blue), axial stream deposits; Tpl (gray), Popotosa Formation; Tsp (green),
piedmont slope and alluvial fan deposits. The box outlines the South Frac-
ture Zone of ref. 20, within which dated veins were collected. Geologic data
are from ref. 19.
multiple generations of calcite cement (Fig. 2). Both vein density
and cumulative aperture increase with proximity to the relay.
The dominant vein set is perpendicular to the minimum stress
shown by numerical modeling to develop in relay zones during
failure (24). Collectively, the distribution, orientation, and mi-
crostructure of the veins suggest they record failure in response
to coseismic fluid overpressure during dynamic rupture across
the relay (Fig. 2A) (20). Vein sealing thus records precipitation
of calcite during postseismic fluid migration.
Postseismic fluid flow along faults is a well-documented phe-
nomenon (25). This effect appears to be most pronounced in
seismogenic normal faults like the Loma Blanca, in which docu-
mented postseismic fluid discharge volumes are up to 10 times
those resulting from similarly sized earthquakes on strike-slip or
reverse faults (25). Several conceptual models have been proposed
to explain postseismic fluid migration from depth along normal
faults. For example, where faults transect overpressured reser-
voirs, coseismic increases in fault permeability may provide a
mechanism for pressure release via the upward migration of fluids
(26, 27). Alternatively, postseismic increases in the least com-
pressive horizontal stress around normal faults may promote pore
2 of 6 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1617945114
collapse at depth, also driving the upward migration of fluids (25,
28). Although the exact mechanism responsible for fluid migration
and vein formation in the Loma Blanca fault zone remains un-
known, previous research has shown that fluids precipitating cal-
cite cements in this and other basin-margin faults of the Rio
Grande rift likely originated from several kilometers beneath the
current exposures (29). Because postseismic fluid flow has been
shown to begin as little as a few days after normal fault rupture
(25), the timing of calcite precipitation is a reasonable proxy for
the timing of individual earthquakes.
The timing of vein precipitation can be accurately determined
using U-Th geochronology if the calcite (i) has favorable U and
common Th (232Th) concentrations and (ii) formed in the past
600,000 years. We used this approach to determine the ages of
the first calcite deposited at the base of each distinct generation
of calcite in veins to constrain the timing of coseismic fracture
openinga proxy for the timing of seismic failure (Fig. 2). By
constraining the timing of individual earthquakes, we can cal-
culate recurrence intervals between successive earthquakes. Vein
samples obtained from the South Fracture Zone of the Loma
Blanca fault (Fig. 1) had undergone previous microstructural and
stable isotope analyses (20). We resampled these veins for U-Th
geochronology using the scheme shown in Fig. 2B. In rare cases
where samples of different veins showed temporal overlap within
analytical uncertainty, stable isotope values were compared.
Ages were considered distinct if carbon or oxygen isotope (13C
and 18O) values differed by >1.5 or if the samples were
collected from two distinct generations of crack-seal calcite from
the same vein. Otherwise, veins of overlapping age were inferred
to have formed at the same time and an error-weighted mean
age was calculated.
Results
U-Th dates for 20 samples of calcite (including replicates of
selected samples) from veins in the Loma Blanca fault zone
document 13 distinct earthquakes since 550 ka (Fig. 3A). Four
of these events define a pronounced cluster recording increased
earthquake frequency at 430 ka. Two of the veins formed
during the earthquake cluster exhibit markedly higher 13C values
relative to older and younger veins (Fig. 3C). These high 13C
values are consistent with rapid, postseismic fluid flow and
degassing of CO2-rich fluids (22). We calculate a long-term re-
currence interval for background earthquake activity of 40 7 ka
over the 390- to 150-ka period and a shorter recurrence interval
of 511 ka for the earthquake cluster near 430 ka. Because ages
of events associated with the cluster cannot be distinguished
within analytical uncertainty, the range given represents the ap-
parent recurrence interval and also a maximum possible re-
currence interval that incorporates the uncertainties of the oldest
and youngest events in the cluster. To further evaluate the validity
of the long-term recurrence interval calculated for the period
from 390150 ka, we calculated a recurrence interval for the
entire record using the average age of events in the earthquake
cluster (Fig. 3B). The latter recurrence interval is 46 6 ka,
within error of the recurrence interval calculated for the period
from 390150 ka.
To provide a quantitative measure of periodicity, we calculated
the coefficient of variation (COV) for the long-term recurrence
interval from 390150 ka as well as for the entire dataset using
the average age of the clustered events. Perfectly periodic
earthquakes would yield a COV of 0, whereas random or clus-
tered earthquakes would yield values of 1 and >1, respectively
(9). The COVs calculated for the period of 390150 ka and for
the entire record (using the average age of cluster events) are
0.43 and 0.40, respectively, indicating quasiperiodic earthquake
activity. The measured recurrence intervals therefore support a
time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence for the Loma
Blanca fault.
Williams et al.
 A C Coseismic Opening

Fluid
Infiltration
Post-Seismic Sealing
2

F1 F1
Crystal Growth From Fracture Walls
B Coseismic Reopening
Generation Two
Generation One F2
Fluid
Fracture Infiltration
Opening / Sealing
on
Increments Post-Seismic Resealing
Directi

AND PLANETARY SCIENCES

EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC,
Growth

F1 F1 F2 F2 F1
5 mm
Fig. 2. (A) Outcrop photo of cross-cutting relationship between two largely sealed calcite veins in the hanging wall damage zone. Numbers denote order of
formation of cross-cutting veins. Open and closed arrows show open and sealed sections of the vein, respectively. Arrow head on card is 5 cm long. Photo
from ref. 20. (B) Plane light photomicrograph showing composite calcite vein with two generations of cement. Dashed line highlights boundary between
cement generations and arrows show the inferred calcite growth direction. Each generation of calcite cement corresponds to a distinct earthquake event as
shown in C. Subsamples were collected from the base of each generation of calcite (F1 and F2) for U-Th analyses. A and B are modified from ref. 20. (C)
Schematic illustration of spatial and temporal relationships between fault slip, fracture opening, and sealing recorded in calcite veins. F1 and F2 denote the
earliest cements precipitated following successive fault slip events, and therefore record the approximate timing of coseismic fracture opening.

We note that the age of event 13 represents the error-weighted
mean of two distinct veins, whose carbon isotope values differed by
values near our threshold of >1.5. If treated as distinct events,
the recurrence intervals for the period from 390150 ka and for
the entire record (using the average age of cluster events) become
34 8 ka and 41 7 ka, respectively, within error of our original
estimates. The COVs then become 0.59 and 0.52, respectively.
Discussion
Sources of Uncertainty. Our analysis assumes that the dated calcite
veins were formed in response to seismic fault slip. It is, however,
conceivable that damage zone fracturing was slip related but
subsequent calcite precipitation was controlled by other factors,
such as climatic variations associated with glacial cycling. We
have tested this hypothesis by comparing our U-Th dates with
the Devils Hole climate record, which provides a continuous
record of glacial cycling over the last 500 ka (30). This com-
parison shows no correlation between the timing of vein for-
mation and glacial/interglacial cycles. This result is consistent
with previous work showing that calcite in the Loma Blanca fault
zone was controlled by upward migrating, endogenic fluids rather
than shallow, meteorically derived fluids (20, 29).
Uncertainty in our quantification of the Loma Blanca record
arises from the fact that we could not sample all of the numerous
veins in the damage zone. As we have no means of estimating
exactly how many events are recorded in the fault zone, it is
possible that some were not sampled. It is also possible that only
seismic events above a particular magnitude resulted in damage
zone fracturing and vein formation, such that not all events were
recorded. Finally, missing events may result from erroneously
combining distinct events where U-Th ages and stable isotope
compositions are similar. Any of these scenarios would lead to
errors in earthquake recurrence intervals and COV calculated
from our U-Th data.
To evaluate our interpretation that earthquake recurrence was
largely time-dependent in light of the fact that we might have
missed events, we constructed simple Monte Carlo simulations
to test the hypothesis that our calculated COV reflects incom-
plete, random sampling of a record of time-independent (COV =
1) or clustered (COV > 1) earthquake recurrence (Methods).
These simulations allow us to conclude at the 95% confidence
level that the time-dependent COVs calculated from the Loma
Blanca earthquake record cannot result from random sampling of
a time-independent or clustered record (Fig. 4). This result holds
even if the two ages comprised by our event 13 are treated as
distinct events, albeit at the 90% confidence level for the interval
from 390150 ka. In summary, although we cannot be certain
how missing events may alter the absolute value of the COV
calculated for the Loma Blanca fault, we can conclude based on
the apparent COV that the underlying recurrence on the fault was
time-dependent. Even if only the largest earthquakes on the Loma
Blanca fault were recorded by veins, then those largest earth-
quakes must have occurred quasiperiodically through time.
Implications for the Seismic Cycle of Intraplate Faults. The pro-
nounced cluster of earthquakes at 430 ka shows that long-term
periodic (time-dependent) fault failure may be interrupted by
transient increases in earthquake frequency of nearly 1 order of
magnitude (Fig. 3B). Moreover, the average age of the clustered
events fits in the long-term earthquake history of the Loma
Blanca fault, indicating that such substantial increases in the rate of

Williams et al. PNAS Early Edition | 3 of 6

A earthquake recurrence intervals on some plate-boundary faults
14 Recurrence Interval ~40 7 ka (1417). However, other plate-boundary faults exhibit random
12 COV = 0.43 or clustered earthquakes over time scales of thousands of years
(813). Previous work has hypothesized that a continuum of
Event Number

10 earthquake recurrence behavior may exist, with quasiperiodic

behavior exhibited by high slip rate, isolated structures with
8
simple geometries and aperiodic behavior characteristic of low
6 Recurrence Interval slip rate, networked fault systems with complex geometries (15).
~5-11 ka An appealing aspect of this interpretation is that it would allow
4 appropriate statistical models of earthquake recurrence to be
2 Paleoseismic Record applied to individual faults based on their geometry and geologic
Seismic Record setting in the absence of robust paleoseismic records. However,
0 our results do not support this conceptual model. As a low slip-
100 200 300 400 500 600 rate fault that is just one of many locally linked and commonly
B 12
segmented structures (19), the Loma Blanca should, per this
model, exhibit aperiodic failure. However, it records periodic
Recurrence Interval ~46 6 ka
10 seismicity over most of the 400 ka we can constrain.
COV = 0.40
Event Number

In the absence of changes in regional strain rates, variations in

8 Loma Blanca earthquake frequency must fundamentally reflect
changes in processes driving fault slip. It is likely that the ca.
6 40 ka periodicity of the long-term Loma Blanca record repre-
Cluster sents a background rate of failure during intraplate extension, as
4 similar rates have been documented for other normal faults in
the Rio Grande rift (31, 32). The dominantly time-dependent
2 nature of our earthquake chronology suggests that this back-
ground fault rupture was driven principally by a stress-renewal
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 process. The interruption of this time-dependent series by clus-
tered seismicity near 430 ka therefore must record a change in
C 5 the process driving failure. Stable isotope evidence of rapid CO2
4 degassing during postseismic fluid flow and vein precipitation
suggests that the clustered earthquakes occurred during an in-
3
13C (VPDB)

terval of anomalous fluid source. We infer that the pronounced

2 increase in earthquake frequency recorded by these veins reflects
1 a source that increased both CO2 concentration and pore-fluid
0
-1
1
-2
-3
0.9
-4 Fail to reject hypothesis
100 200 300 400 500 600
that underlying recurrence is
Age (ka) 0.8
time-independent
Critical COV Threshold

Fig. 3. Results of U-Th and 13C analyses of calcite veins. (A) Earthquake age
0.7
versus relative position within the total earthquake sequence record. Lines in
the lower left of the graph show the length of the seismic instrument record Reject hypothesis that
and the length of previous paleoseismic studies. Error bars represent 95% 0.6 underlying recurrence is
(2) confidence intervals. Error bars are not shown where uncertainties are
time-independent
less than symbol size. Trend lines show linear regression analyses of the
plotted age ranges where slope is proportional to earthquake frequency. 0.5
The COV provides an estimate of earthquake periodicity (0, perfectly peri-
odic; 1, random). The gray box shows the time interval associated with time span from
0.4 ~390 - 150 ka complete record using
clustered seismicity on the Loma Blanca fault. (B) Similar to A but showing a
average cluster age
mean age calculated from the clustered events. (C) Vein 13C [Vienna Peedee
belemnite standard (VPDB)] is shown as a function of calcite age. Uncer-
0.3
tainties in 13C analysis are less than 0.1. Two dated veins were destroyed 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
during sample collection before 13C analyses could be conducted. Carbon Number of Samples
isotope data were sourced in part from ref. 22.
Fig. 4. Results of Monte Carlo simulation testing the hypothesis that the
COVs calculated from our U-Th data are the result of incomplete, random
seismicity can occur within the expected interseismic period of an sampling of a time-independent (i.e., random) earthquake record. For any
otherwise time-dependent cycle (Fig. 3B). We note that clusters COV (vertical axis) calculated from a particular sample size (horizontal axis),
previously documented on plate-bounding faults are generally points falling outside the shaded area allow rejection of the null hypothesis
that a calculated COV could be the result of random sampling of a time-
separated by pronounced periods of quiescence (812). In contrast,
independent record at the 95% confidence level. Because the COVs calcu-
our results show that an earthquake cluster may be an anomaly in lated from our U-Th data plot outside of the shaded region, we reject the
an otherwise quasiperiodic record, at least on intraplate faults. hypothesis that the underlying earthquake recurrence behavior of the Loma
The time-dependent nature of the Loma Blanca earthquakes Blanca fault was time-independent. See SI Appendix for model source code
is consistent with recent work that documents quasiperiodic and results of the clustered recurrence test.

4 of 6 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1617945114 Williams et al.

volume, and thereby pressure, at depth. This inferred increase in
pore-fluid pressure is interpreted to have decreased effective
fault strength, leading to more frequent seismic rupture, con-
sistent with fault-valve behavior (26).
The geometry of normal faults and the associated stress field
makes it difficult to sustain large fluid overpressures over long
time scales (27). However, previous work has shown that fault-
valve behavior can occur in extensional settings where basin
stratigraphy includes low-permeability horizons at depth, as is
the case in the Socorro Basin beneath the Loma Blanca fault
(33). We hypothesize that the inferred increase in CO2 content
of pore fluids may record input of volatiles exsolved from rift-
related magma. Such volatiles could be trapped where the fault
transects low-permeability sediment. We note that there is con-
siderable evidence suggesting that overpressured CO2-rich fluids
may have been responsible for modern normal-fault ruptures in
the Apennines (27). In the case of the Loma Blanca fault, we
speculate that such volatiles may have been released during
crystallization of an early (and previously unrecognized) phase of
the currently active Socorro magma body, which lies beneath the
study area (34).
Our longer earthquake chronology indicates that the inferred
period of fault-valve behavior was a transient episode in the
Loma Blanca fault history. Although our record contains only
two events older than the earthquake cluster, the interval be-
tween them is consistent with those observed in the younger
record of periodic recurrence. For this reason, and because the
long-term periodicity of earthquakes on the Loma Blanca fault is
similar to that of other normal faults in the Rio Grande rift, we
conclude that failure on the Loma Blanca fault was driven by a
stress-renewal process for most of the recorded history. We in-
terpret the seismic cluster as a record of enhanced seismicity
caused by naturally elevated pore-fluid pressure, which drove
fault failure for a relatively short period.
Methods
Geochemical Methodology.
Powder sampling. Powders were collected from vein samples that were pol-
ished flat in a plane perpendicular to the fracture wall. A variable speed drill
with a carbide bit (head diameter: 100 m) was used to collect 30 mg of
sample powder in a fracture-wall-parallel trench at the base of each gen-
eration of cement. Sample trenches were kept 0.51 mm from the fracture
wall to avoid contamination from sandstone calcite cements. Following each
drill pass, sample powders were collected with a hypodermic needle and
placed into static-free sample vials. All sample collection tools were thor-
oughly rinsed with ethanol and dried between samples.
U-Th analytical methods. Analyses were carried out at the Berkeley Geo-
chronology Center. Samples were totally dissolved in 7 M HNO3 and equili-
brated with a mixed spike containing 229Th, 233U, and 236U. The spike was
calibrated using New Brunswick National Lab CRM145 uranium solution and
solutions prepared from a 69-Ma U ore from Schwartzwalder Mine, Colo-
rado, United States, that has been demonstrated to yield concordant U-Pb
ages (35) and sample-to-sample agreement of 234U/238U and 230Th/238U ra-
tios. U and Th were separated from sample matrix using two stages of
HNO3HCl cation exchange chemistry followed by reaction with HNO3 and
HClO4 to remove any residual organic material. Procedural backgrounds for
U and Th were measured with each batch of samples and corrections for
background 230Th were applied. Procedural backgrounds for 238U, 234U, and
232
Th were negligible relative to sample amounts.
Analyses were performed using a Thermo-Fisher NEPTUNE Plus multi-
collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. Purified U and Th
fractions were analyzed simultaneously. Analyses were carried out in auto-
mated sequences, with each analysis consisting of a preanalysis washout, an
instrumental background measurement, a sample measurement, and a
measurement of peak-tails. All measurements are normalized to simulta-
neous measurements of 238U to cancel intensity fluctuations. Instrumental
backgrounds at each U and Th mass, along with Faraday collector baselines
and ion counter dark noise, were measured while aspirating the same dilute
HNO3HF solution used to introduce samples. Sample measurements were
carried out in peak-jumping mode with all masses measured on Faraday
collectors except 230Th and 234U, which were measured with an ion counter.
Williams et al.
Sample measurements incorporated within-run mass bias corrections using
the known 233U/236U ratio of the spike. Faraday amplifier gains were cali-
brated weekly using the Neptunes constant current source and switching
system. Ion counter yields (relative to Faraday collectors) were determined
during each sample measurement by cycling 229Th and 233U signals between
the ion counter and the L1 Faraday collector. Peak tails were monitored at
seven half-mass positions from m/e = 229.5241.5 while aspirating sample
solutions, the sum of tails from all peaks was modeled at each U and Th mass
position, and the result subtracted from the measured intensities. Measured
peak heights were corrected for Faraday baselines/ion counter dark noise,
instrumental backgrounds, Faraday gains, ion counter yields, mass frac-
tionation, peak-tails, procedural blanks, and interfering spike isotopes.
Activity ratios and ages were calculated using the half-lives of ref. 36 for 238U,
ref. 37 for 232Th, and ref. 38 for 230Th and 234U. Correction for U and Th from
detritus was made assuming detritus with activity ratios of (232Th/238U) = 1.2
0.5, (230Th/238U) = 1.0 0.1, and (234U/238U) = 1.0 0.1. Errors for corrected ages
are 2 and include contributions from measurement errors and the assigned
uncertainties in detritus composition but not decay constant error.
Monte Carlo Simulation. We used a Monte Carlo simulation (MATLAB source
code included in SI Appendix) to test the hypothesis that the periodic distri-
bution of earthquakes we have documented does not reflect time-dependent
seismicity, but instead was produced by random sampling of either a random
(i.e., time-independent) or clustered earthquake distribution. Our model takes
as input an assumed mean earthquake recurrence interval and a COV, from
AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC,
which it randomly generates 10,000 synthetic earthquake records fitting these
parameters. We tested the above hypothesis by randomly sampling each
synthetic earthquake record to assess the variability of the calculated COVs for
a range of sample sizes. For example, incomplete, random sampling of a time-
independent earthquake record with a COV = 1 would frequently produce
apparent COVs that are either greater or less than one. In essence, our model
determines the lowest (more time-dependent in appearance) COV that is likely
to be produced through random sampling of a time-independent or clustered
earthquake distribution.
We used this approach to assess the variability of COVs calculated from
random samples of synthetic time-independent and clustered recurrence
records. The model assumes a mean recurrence interval of 40 ka, COVs of
1 and 1.5 for time-independent and clustered tests, respectively, and a record
of 15 earthquakes. To evaluate each sample size (we tested 615), 10,000
synthetic earthquake records were randomly sampled and the COV of the
apparent interseismic periods in each subsample was calculated and stored.
Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that model results are not affected by vari-
ations in either the assumed mean recurrence interval or the total number of
synthetic earthquakes in each record (SI Appendix, Fig. S1).
We define a critical COV threshold as the fifth percentile of the 10,000
calculated COVs from each model run of a given sample size. Thus, if the
critical COV threshold for a given sample size is greater than that calculated
using our U-Th dates for the same sample size, we can reject (at the 95%
confidence level) the null hypothesis that the latter COV could result from
random sampling of a time-independent or clustered record. In the main
text, we consider the COV of both the time period from 390150 ka and
the entire Loma Blanca record using the average age of the clustered events.
For the time-independent test, these COVs (0.43 and 0.40, respectively) are
both less than the critical COV thresholds (0.54 and 0.68, respectively) for the
same sample sizes, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis that COVs cal-
culated using our U-Th dates could be the result of random sampling of a
time-independent record (Fig. 4). Similarly, the clustered recurrence test
yields critical COV thresholds of 0.69 and 0.88 for sample sizes of 7 and 10,
respectively, which also allows us to reject the hypothesis that our calculated
COVs could result from random sampling of a clustered record (SI Appendix,
Fig. S2).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Christine Gopon for assistance with field
work and Brian Goodman for statistical advice. We are grateful to the
Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge for access to study sites. We also thank
two anonymous reviewers for providing constructive reviews of the
manuscript, which greatly improved its quality. This work was supported
by grants from the Geological Society of America, the American Association
of Petroleum Geologists, and the GDL Foundation (to R.T.W.) and a grant
from the Wisconsin Alumni Research Fund (to L.B.G.). Acknowledgment is
made to the donors of the American Chemical Society Petroleum Research
Fund for partial support of this research. Partial support of this work was
provided by National Science Foundation Grants EAR-1358514, EAR-
1358554, EAR-1358401, EAR-1358443, and EAR-1101100 (EarthScope Na-
tional Office). We thank the EarthScope Awards for Geochronology Student
Research Program for its support.
PNAS Early Edition | 5 of 6
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