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Rubric Statistics Design Project

Stats the Final Frontier


(and Last Unit)

1. Probability
Definition: the likelihood that a specific event will occur

Types of probability:

a) Theoretical Probability

Mathematical expression that gives the probability of an


event occurring mathematically

Favored outcome
Possible outcomes

e.g. In a bag, I have mixed together 13 blue marbles and


10 red marbles. What is the probability that you will
select a blue marble?

Favorable outcome = blue marbles


= 13
Possible outcomes = blue + red marbles
= 23

b) Experimental Probability

Probability based on an experiment or measurement.

Favored outcome obtained


Total number of trials

e.g. In a bag, I have mixed together 13 blue marbles and


10 red marbles. Out of 13 tries, you selected a blue
marble twice. The experimental probability is 2/13.
Rubric Statistics Design Project

c) Subjective Judgement

Based on opinions, feelings and emotions, often does


not require math.

e.g. In a bag, I have mixed together 13 blue marbles


and 10 red marbles. You have a feeling that the next
marble chosen will be red.

e.g. In spite of the sunny forecast, you bring an


umbrella because you are sure it will rain.

To Carefully Consider
A decision can be based on theoretical probability,
experimental probability, subjective judgement or a
combination of these.

Identify the type of probability used in each fo the following decisions

E.g. Bailey decides not to bring her umbrella today. For despite the
forecast she feels it will not rain today.

E.g. Chris does not buy a draw ticket because too many people have
already joined and Chris feels unlucky.

E.g. Bob leaves for work 15 minutes in advance as that is the time,
on average that it usually takes for him to walk to work.
Rubric Statistics Design Project

2. Statistics
Definition: Deals with the collection, organization, analysis, and
presentation of data

a) Population vs. Sample


A set/group of individuals that share an underlying
characteristic

e.g. the population of Yellowknife refers to all


individuals residing in Yellowknife

e.g. the population of High School student = all


students enrolled in High school across the world.

To Carefully Consider
It is important to carefully consider and describe the population to
ensure

That the research we conduct is valid and reliable


The manner in which to proceed
That we limit or identify bias

b) Census vs. Sample

If your population size is small enough you can collect data


from each member of the group. This is known as a census.
If the population is too large and you cannot collect data from
everyone (due to cost, lack of time) you need to select a sub-
section of the population. This smaller representation of the
population is known as a sample.

To Carefully Consider
A sample needs to be
Large enough to properly represent the entire population
Non-bias
Randomly selected from the population
Rubric Statistics Design Project

c) Sampling Methods

M Simple Random All members of the population I wish to conduct a survey with a sample
HIG
OR Sampling have an equal chance of being of 80 SJF students. Odds of being
HE
E part of the sample selected to participate are
R
RA 80 in 550
PO
ND
SSI Stratified Random Small categories are established I wish to ensure equal representation
O
BLE Sampling to properly represent the entire across each grade level at SJF, and will
M
BIA population. Participants are randomly select 20 students from each
S randomly selected within level
those categories
Odds of being select in

Grade 9 20/96
Grade 10 20/150
Etc

Systematic Sampling Every nth person on the list will I place all grade 9 students in
participate in the survey alphabetical order, then proceed to
select every 15th student to participate in
the survey

Cluster Sampling The population is already pre- I select Mr. Knoxs grade 12 Chemistry
divided into smaller groups. class to conduct the survey on
The survey is given to all the preference of musical genres.
members of that smaller group.

Convenience Sampling The survey is administered to The survey questions are asked to the
whatever members of the next 20 people you see in the hallway.
population are at hand
Self-selected Sampling Members of the population Survey is placed online and people must
volunteer to participate in the choose to complete the survey.
survey.
Rubric Statistics Design Project

d) Factors that can affe


Rubric Statistics Design Project

e) Bias and factors that affect the validity of a survey


Bias occurs when the question is written in a way that will
influence the data gathered.

Timing The time in which data e.g. Asking whether you


is collected could affect liked your math class
the results after the final exam
could change your
answer depending on
the difficulty of the final
exam.

Privacy People may not want to e.g. Asking for


share personal someones income
information lever, weight, age,
grades.

Cultural Survey must be created e.g. Asking participants


in a way to not offend to identify themselves
Sensitivity
any population sub- according to binary
group gender (no provisions
for the LGTBQ
community).

Asking how people like


their bacon (no
provisions for cultures
that do not eat ham).

Cost The cost of collecting Sending each survey by


the data should be registered mail is too
considered prior to expensive to conduct a
beginning to ensure that fair sample of all
it is properly completed Canadians.

Time The amount of time A 2-hour survey might


required to complete be answered quickly by
the survey must be individuals to get it
considered finished. If too long
participants might not
complete the survey or
might randomly answer
the questions.
Rubric Statistics Design Project

Use of The language itself can e.g. asking students if


create bias they prefer delicious
language
chocolate chip cookies
or bland oatmeal and
raisin cookies.

f) Using Stats

To Carefully Consider
Statistics can be used in arguments on both sides. This does
not mean that the data is wrong or inconclusive, it is how the
math is interpreted which differs.

e.g. Beth wished to drive to Edmonton, yet there is a 35%


chance that forest fires might block the highway.

She could argue that 35% is a high percentage and seeing as


it is currently windy and very dry, she will wait until the fire is
under control. On the other, 65% of chances the road to
Edmonton will not be blocked.
Rubric Statistics Design Project

Students clearly Students identify Students do not


Introductio identify and and describe clearly identify and
describe research research topic, describe research
n to
topic, population population and topic, population or
Design and sampling sampling method sampling method
Project method 1
5 3
Students collect Students collect Students collect
data from a reliable data from a data from a reliable
sample (over 30% somewhat reliable sample (over 30%
Data
of target sample (15- 30% of of target
Collected population) target population) population)

5 3 1
Students clearly Students present Students do not
present the the collected data. present all of the
collected data. Data is clean, and collected data.
Data Data is clean, incudes title, labels
Presented incudes title, labels or legends
and legends.
10. 5
15
Rubric Statistics Design Project

Students prepare a Students prepare a Students prepare a


survey of 3-5 survey of 2 survey of 3-5
questions which are questions which are questions relevant
consistently consistently to the research
detailed, well- detailed, well- topic.
Questions written, non-bias written, non-bias
and relevant to the and relevant to the
research topic. research topic.
5
15 10
Questions and Questions and Questions and
research topic have research topic have research topic have
been verified for been verified for not been verified for
Verificatio factors that might factor that might factor that might
n of affect reliability of affect reliability of affect reliability of
research. research. research.
factors Verification is Verification is
detailed. 2 detailed.
3 1
Student carefully Student analyzes Student does not
analyzes collected collected data. analyze all collected
Analysis data. data.
2
3 1
Students clearly Students Students
acknowledge acknowledge acknowledge
Errors and existing bias and existing bias and existing bias
suggest suggest one
Improvem improvements to improvements to
ent further the research further the research
5 1
3
Students research Students research
topic is current, topic is not current,
Creativity relevant and novel relevant or novel
2 1
Students present Students do not
the research and present the
their findings in a research and their
Presentati
clear and findings in a clear
on appropriate manner and appropriate
2 manner
1
Self-Evaluation
Rubric Statistics Design Project

Provide a grade from 1 -5 on your work in the project. Justify


why you are allocating yourself that grade. For example,
were you always motivated and on task? What tasks did you
do in the project (if you are in a team)?

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