An Argument for Divine Providence, Taken from the Constant Regularity Observ'd in the Births of Both Sexes. By Dr. John Arbuthnott, Physitian in Ordinary to Her Majesty, and Fellow of the College of Physitians and the Royal Society John Arbuthnot Philosophical Transactions (1683-1775), Vol. 27 (1710 - 1712), 186-190. Stable URL: hhupflinks,jstor-org/siisici=0260-7085%2817 10%2F1712%2927%3C 186%3AA AFDPT%3E2.0,CO%3B2-K Philosophical Transactions (1683-1775) is currently published by The Royal Society. Your use of the ISTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at hutp:/wwww,jstor orglabout/terms.html. ISTOR’s Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at hup:/seww,jstor.org/journals/rs.html Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the sereen or printed page of such transmission, ISTOR is an independent not-for-profit organization dedicated to creating and preserving a digital archive of scholarly journals. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact support @ jstor.org. hupslwww jstor.org/ Thu May 5 12:22:47 2005(186) IL, An Argument for Divine Providence, taken from the conftant Regularity obferv'd in the Births of both Sexes. By Dr. John Arbuthnott, Phyfitian in Ordinary to Her Majefly, and Fellow of the College of Phyjitians and the Royal Society. Mong innumerable Footfteps of Divine Providence to be found in the Works of Nature, there is a Very remarkable one to be obf:rved in the exaét Ballance that is maintained, between the Numbers of Men and Women ; for by this means it is provided, that the Species may never fail, nor perith, fince every Male may have its Female, and of a proportionable Age. This Equality of Males and Females is not the Effett of Chance but Divine Providence, working for a good End, which I thus demonftrate : Let there be a Die of Two fides, M and F, (which denote Crofs and Pile), now to find all the Chances of any determinate Number of fach Dice, let the Binome M-+F be raifed to the Power, whofe Exponent is the Number of Dice given’ the Coefficients of the Terms will fhewall the Chances fought. For Example, in Two Dice of Two fides M+F the Chances are M*-+2 MF-+F*, that is, One Chance for M double, One for F double, and Two for M fingle and F fingle; in Four fuch Dice there are Chances M‘-+4 M3 F-+6 M* F+4+.4 MF34F4, that is, One Chance for M quadruple, One for F quadru- ple, Four for triple M and fingle F, Four for fingle M and triple F, and Six for M double and F double; and univerfally, if the Number of Dice be », all their Chances will be expreffed in this Series Mo-+(187 ) M4 PME 8 MOREE MME, oes Ic appears plainly, that when the Number of Dice is even there ate as many M’sas F's in the middle Term of this Series, and in all the other Terms there are moft M’sor moft F's. If therefore 2 Man undertake with an even Number of Dice to throw as many M’s as F’s, he has all the Terms but the middle Term againft him ; and his Lot is to the Sum of all the Chances, as the coefficient of the middle Term is to the power of 2 raifed to an ex- ponent equal to the Number of Dice: fo in Two Dice his Lot is Z.0r4, in Three Dice v5 or 3, in Six Dice 33 or xf, in Eight «#2 or si, ce. To find this middle Termin any given Power or Num- ber of Dice, continue the Series ®.=#«24, de. till the num- ber of termsarcequalto:n. ForExample,the co:flicient of the middle Termof thetenth Power is $2+2*}*2xf=252, the tenth Power uf 2 is 1024, if therefore A under- takes to throw with Ten Dice in one throw an equal Number of M’s and F's, he has 252 Chances out of 1024 for him, that is his Lot is +t or sf, which isle than. It will be eafy by the help of Logarithms, to extend this Calculation toa very great Number, but thatis not my prefent Defign. It is vifible from what Has been faid, that with a very great Number of Dice, A’s Lot would become very fmail; and confequently (fuppofing Mo denote Mal: and F Female). that in the vatt Num- ber of Mortals, there would be but a {mall pare of all the poflible Chances, for its happening at any affignable time, that an equal Number of. Males and. Females fhoutd be born. It is indeed to be confeffed that this Equanty of mates and Femalesis not Mathematical but Ehylical, which al~ ters much the foregoing Calculation ; for in this oe e( 188) the middle Term will not exaétly give A’s Chances, but his Chances will take in fome of the Terms next the middie one, and will lean to one fide or the other. But it is very improbable (if mere Chance govern’d) that they would never reach as far as the Extremities? But this Event is wiftly prevented by the wife Occonomy of Nacure 5 and to judge of thewifdom of the Contrivance, we mult oblerve thet the external Accidents to. which are Males fubject (who mutt feck their Food with danger) domakea great havock of them,and that this lofs excceds far that of the other Sex, occafioned by Difcafes inci- dent to it, as Experience convinces us. To repair that Lof, provident Nature, by the Difpofal of its wife Cre ator, brings forth more Males than Females; and thae in almoft a conftant proportion. This appears from the annexed Tables, which contain Obfervations for 22 Years of the Births in Lewdon. Now, to reduce the Whole to 2 Calculation, I propofe this. Problem. A lays againft B, that every Year there hall be born more Malss than Females: Tofind A’s Lot, or the Value of his Expectation. evident from what has been faid, that A’s Lot b Year is Jef than $5 (but that the Argument may be ftronger) let his Lot be equal to } for one Year. 1f he undertakes to do the fame thing 82 times running, his Lot will be J will be found eafily by the Table of Logatithais to be pp Bue if A wager with B, not ouly that the Number of Moles fall exceed that of Females, every Year, but that this ExcefS thal happen in a conftant Proportion, and the Difference lye within fix'd Himitss and this not only for 82 Years, but for Ages of Ages, ond not only at London, but ail over the Worlds (which ‘tis highly Probable is Fatt, and defigned that every Male may have a Female ofthe fame Country and fuitable Age) then A’s Cisance will be near an infnitely final Quantiy, at leaft left(189 ) fefs than any affignable Fraction. From whence it fol- Jows, that it is Art, not Chance, that governs, There feems no more probable Caufe to be afligned in Phyficks for this Equality of the Births, than that in ‘our firlt Parents Seed there were at fir(t formed an equal Number of both Sexes. ‘Scholium. From hence it follows, that Polygamy is contrary to the Law of Nature and Juttice, and to the Propagation of Human Race; for where Males and and Females are in equal number, if one Man takes ‘Twenty Wives, Nineteen Men mutt live in Celibacy, which is repugnant to the Defign of Nature ; nor is it probable that Twenty Women will be fo well impreg- ated by one Man as by Twenty. Chriftened. Chriftened. Males. , Females. | ane Males. | Females. 1629 | 5218 | 4683 | 11648 | 3363 | 3181 go | 4858 | 4457 | 49 4 3079 | 2746 3 | 4422 | 4t02 50 { 2890 | azao 32 | 4994, 459° | 51 | 3234 | 2840 33 | 3158 | 4839 | 1 52 jah0 | 2908 341 5033 | 4820 | | 53 | 3195 | 2959 35 | $106 | 4928 | 54] 344t | 3179 36 | 4917 | 4605 55 | 3653 | 3349 37 | 4793 | 4457 | 56 | 3668 | 3382 38 | 3359 | 4952 57 | 3396 | 3289 39 | 5366 | 4784 | 58 | 3157 | 3013, 40 | 958 | 5332 59 | 3209 | 278r 4i! 5470 | 5200 60 | 3724 ' 3247 #| 3460! 410 | | 61 1 4748 | 4107 43) 4793 5 4617 62 | 5216 | 4803 44| 4107 | 3997 , | 63 | garr | 4884 45 | 4047 | 3919 64 | Go4r | 568 46 3768 3395 | $s sue 4858 4319 Sd oa OT chritened.Chriftencd, a dates. 5616 6073 6506 6278 6449 6443 6073 6113 Teuales, 5322 5719 6061 6120 5822 5738 S717 5827 6203 6033 604i 6533 6744 7158 7137 7246 7119 7214 7101 | Anvo. Chriftened. Males, 7604, 79°9 7662 7602 7676 5385 7263 7632 8062 ont 78 Be 8034 776s 6113, 808 7952 Br 8239 | | | | | | | | Females, 7187 7302 7392 7316 7483 6647 5753 7229 7797 7626 7452 7068 7288