Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam To Broker US-North
Korea Talks?
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 30, 2017

[client name deleted]

Q1. There are reports that last year Vietnam offered to broker back channel talks
between the US and North Korea. We request your assessment of this issue.
ANSWER: On North Korea and Vietnam, I refer you to my 2010 Background Brief
posted on Scribd.com: "Vietnam's Relations with China, North Korea and the United
States. It may be located at https://www.scribd.com/document/33875682/Thayer-
Vietnam-s-Relations-With-China-North-Korea-and-the-United-States.
Whether or not the report you referred to is accurate, it is plausible. Vietnam
developed relations with the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) under its
"be a friend and reliable partner to all" formulation. Vietnam supported the DPRK's
membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum and. more significantly, quietly hosted
North Korea-Japan reconciliation talks. In the 2010 brief I said that Vietnam would
respond to requests for third party good offices. Vietnam would win enormous kudos
in China and the United States if the report you mentioned is accurate.
Around 2010 Vietnam received several study missions from the DPRK that looked into
Vietnam's economic reforms. But Vietnam has been careful not to violate UN
sanctions.
Q2. What has Hanoi been making of the last few weeks between North Korea the US
and China?
ANSWER: I was in recently in Hanoi and this issue obviously came up. The Vietnamese,
like all informed observers, do not see any solution to this problem. They don't assess
that China will force North Korea to desist by cutting off economic links with
Pyongyang. They also do not see any credible US threats working. There is some
concern about US-China major power collusion at Vietnam's expense such as the US
conceding to China in the South China Sea. But the recent US Freedom of Navigation
Operational Patrol (FONOP) could be viewed as another point of pressure on China to
take action with North Korea.
Vietnamese analysts hold memories of the US Air War and Vietnam's determination
to resist. The only solution they see is quiet diplomatic talks - eventually. There was
no hint that Vietnam was brokering US-DPRK talks.
 2

Q3. Might Vietnam-South Korea relations develop past foreign direct investment with
this new South Korean administration? One analyst has pointed to more Korean
engagement in the region and multilateral organisations pre-Park.
ANSWER: Vietnam and South Korea agreed to a strategic partnership in 2009.
Economic relations have grown. However, a search of the SIPRI arms transfer database
from 2009 to last year reveals no sale of weapons. South Korea is one of the ASEAN
Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus dialogue partners and is a member of the East Asia
Summit. Vietnam had good relations with the previous South Korean government.
Because of the North Korean nuclear issue Seoul is likely to try to garner regional
political support both through bilateral relations and multilaterally. It is unlikely that
there will be any quantum jump in relations between Hanoi and Seoul.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam To Broker US-North Korea Talks?

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 30, 2017. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.