Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 1
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 24,2017

[client name deleted]

Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit the United States and meet
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We request
your assessment of the following issues:
1) A couple things stand out to me about this trip. This is far and away the earliest in
a presidency that a Vietnamese Prime Minister will have visited The White House.
Phuc will be joining a fairly exclusive list of leaders to have been received by Trump
this early on, with most of the others thus far having been high profile world players
along the likes of Merkel, Erdogan, Abe, etc. Furthermore, Phuc will be the first ASEAN
leader to have met with Trump, jumping the queue over stalwart U.S. allies Thailand
and the Philippines. What, if anything, can be inferred from these facts?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit is the result of superb lobbying by the
Vietnamese Ambassador in Washington. He contacted the Director for Asian Affairs at
the National Security Council. The result was a letter from President Trump to his
Vietnamese counterpart, Tran Dai Quang, in February. The letter has not been made
public but Vietnamese leaders said Trump had praised Vietnam for its progress. Then
it was announced that Trump would attend the APEC Summit in Vietnam in November.
Vietnam would like Trump to make an official visit at this time.
Clearly Vietnam is trying to clear up the strategic uncertainty that Trump has created.

2) ls Trump as anxious to meet Phuc as Phuc is to meet Trump? (it almost looks as if
Phuc is flying to Washington with his hands stretched out now that Washington is
favoring bilateral trade agreements).
ANSWER:Vietnam is desperate not to be a victim of Trump's effort to correct US trade
imbalances. Vietnam lies sixth on the list of those with a trade surplus, But Vietnam's
thirty billion plus surplus is a fraction of China's surplus. Vietnam needs access to the
US market and was an avid supporter of the TPP. Vietnam was shocked when Trump
signed an Executive Order withdrawing from the TPP on his first day in office, PM Phuc
and other leaders have signalled they are willing to work with the US to negotiate a
bilateral free trade agreement that is mutually beneficial. Vietnam is angling for the
US to recognise it as a market economy.

3) Any chance of human rights being on the agenda?

 2

ANSWER: No, especially after the leaked transcript of President Trump's comments to
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Washington -

1," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief , May 24,20L7. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 25,2017

lclient name deleted]

Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit the United States and meet
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We request
your assessment of the following issues:
1. Of course Vietnam wants to understand US policy and strategy in the South China
Sea, what are the prospects that a special bilateral trade deal will be realized?
ANSWER: Quite obviously Vietnam was taken aback when President Trump signed an
Executive Order withdrawing the US from the TransPacific Partnership (TPP). Vietnam
was one of the TPP signatories that stood the most to gain. Vietnam has since pulled
out all the stops to ensure that Vietnam does not suffer from Trump's efforts to reduce
bilateral trade imbalances. Vietnam rank's sixth behind China (but well down on the
size of the deficit). Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will seek to control any damage
by offering, as he has already done in public, to negotiate a bilateral free trade
agreement with the US. This will take a considerable time to achieve.
Vietnam will be heartened by the Trump Administration's conduct of its first freedom
of navigation operational patrol near Mischeif Reef. Vietnam has consistently
supported freedom of navigation and overflight and adds the rider that it supports the
US role in the region if it contributes to peace and stability.

2.With last year's lifting of the US arms embargo against Vietnam, do you believe that
Vietnam may secure/score an "arms deal" for maritime surveillance equipment like
the older Lockheed Martin P-3 Orions?
ANSWER: Vietnam has been quite circumspect about expressions of interest in US
defence equipment and technology. lt is an open secret that Vietnam is in the market
for coastal radar and maritime patrol aircraft such as the P-3 Orion. lt is a buyer's
market as the US, Japan, Australia and other countries acquire the P-8 Poseidon and
retire the Orion. Japan also could be a supplier.
3. How do you characterize US-V|etnam relations today under the Trump
administration?
ANSWER: ln February, after intense Vietnamese lobbying, President Trump sent a
letter to his Vietnamese counterpart, Tran Dai Quang. The text of this letter has not
been made public but Vietnam noted that Trump had praised Vietnam. Vietnam was
 2

also pleased when it was announced that Trump will attend the APEC summit in
Vietnam in November. Vietnam hopes to convince Trump to make an official visit at
the same time.
The foundations for US-Vietnam relations were set under President Obama when the
two countries reached agreement on a comprehensive partnership covering nine
broad areas of cooperation. Vietnam has attempted to make sure bilateral relations
continue on their present trajectory by offering to cooperate and assist the US on a
wide range of regional issues.
Relations have been assisted by President Trump's decision to keep the current US
Ambassador in Hanoi, Ted Osius, in place. This month Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan
Phuc will visit Trump in The White House. Deputy Minister of National Defence, Senior
LTGEN Nguyen Chi Vietnam will also attend the annual strategic dialogue in
Washington this month. Bilateral relations are good and on a steady course and both
sides look set to address issues raised by Vietnam's thirty billion plus trade surplus.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Vietnam - 2,"
Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , May 25, 20L7 . All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 ',123
Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 30,2017

[client name deleted]

Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit the United States and meet
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We request
your assessment of the following issues:
1) What is the importance of Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc's visit to the United
States? What do you expect will be the major outcomes?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit is the result of superb lobbying by the
Vietnamese Ambassador in Washington. He contacted the Director for Asian Affairs at
the National Security Council. The result was a letter from President Trump to his
Vietnamese counterpart, Tran Dai Quang, in February. The letter has not been made
public but Vietnamese leaders said Trump had praised Vietnam for its progress. Then
it was announced that Trump would attend the APEC Summit in Vietnam in November.
Vietnam would like Trump to make an official visit at this time.
Clearly Vietnam is trying to clear up the strategic uncertainty that Trump has created.
Vietnam is desperate not to be a victim of Trump's effort to correct US bilateral trade
imbalances. Vietnam lies sixth on the list of those with a trade surplus. But Vietnam's
thirty billion plus surplus is a fraction of China's surplus. Vietnam needs access to the
US market and was an avid supporter of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Vietnam
was shocked when Trump signed an Executive Order withdrawing from the TPP on his
first day in office. PM Phuc and other leaders have signalled they are willing to work
with the US to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement that is mutually beneficial.
Vietnam is angling for the US to recognise it as a market economy.
The two leaders will meet for 30 minutes and speak through interpreters. Phuc's main
focus will be on trade and getting an assurance that Trump will agree to lower level
bilateral talks to lay the foundation for future trade relations and not take pre-emptive
action.
During Phuc's visit a large number of economic agreements will be signed including
Vietnam's purchase of more US-manufactured airplane parts. Another agreement will
focus on oil and gas exploration in the Ca Voi Xanh or Blue Whale oilfield. Vietnamese
sources say the total of economic agreements will reach US S10 billion.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Washington -
3," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief, May 30, 2017. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 4
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 30,2017

[client name deleted]

Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit the United States and meet
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We request
your assessment of the following issues:

Q1: What is your assessment about the visit of Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc of
Vietnam to US from May 29 - 31?
ANSWER: This visit is timely for both parties. The Trump Administration has raised
concerns about the consistency of US engagement in the Asia Pacific in general and
Southeast Asia in particular. The Obama Administration left a firm foundation for
bilateral relations with Vietnam. Prime Minister Phuc's visit will offer an opportunity
for both sides to set new priorities and map out objectives to be achieved in coming
years.

Q2: Mr Phric will become the first Southeast Asian leader to travel to the US and hold
face-to-face talks with Mr Trump since he took office in January. What does this
mean?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit is the result of Vietnam's proactive diplomacy
and was not initiated by the Trump Administration. The fact that Vietnam was
successful in securing a meeting with President Trump is significant because it
underscores the importance of Vietnam as a responsible regional power whose
interests in peace and security converge in large part with the United States. This visit
is great importance to Vietnam because of the uncertainty of the Trump's
Administration's foreign and trade policies.

Q3: The U.S. withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) in January and Trump
said the U,S. would consider deals with individual countries if they were good for
America. Do you think a free-trade deal to replace the 12-nation Trans Pacific
Partnership will be discussed during Mr. Phuc's visit?

ANSWER: President Trump and Prime Minister Phuc will likely discuss how to proceed
with economic relations and establish a framework for bilateral discussions. Phuc will
offer assurances that Vietnam wants to be as cooperative as possible for mutual
benefit. The details of future bilateral relations will be decided by lower level officials.
 2

Phuc needs to secure Trump's support for discussions on a free trade agreemen| but
it will take a long time for this agreement to be agreed and then ratified.
4: Before the visit of Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, The White House announced
"President Trump looks forward to discussing ways to strengthen our bilateral
relationship and deepen regional cooperation with one of America's important
partners in Southeast Asia". ln your view, how far will Vietnam and the United States
promote ties after the visit?
ANSWER: US-Vietnam relations are more likely to move steadily forward rather than
see any major jump in defence cooperation in the region and the South China Sea in
particular. Vietnam has always welcomed US freedom of navigational operational
patrols as long as they contribute to regional stability and security. ln addition to
economic relations, the two sides will discuss how each party can'contribute to
regional security. The US is likely to contribute to further assist Vietnam in building up
its maritime security capabilities
Vietnam's policy of multilateralizing and diversifying its foreign relations means that
Vietnam will work hard to prevent relations from deteriorating under Trump and
ensure the comprehensive partnership agreement continues to serve as the
framework for bilateral relations. Vietnam does not want to be pulled into the orbit
of any major power. Thus, Vietnam wants a strong relationship with the US. A
weak relationship with the US could result in ietnam being pulled closer to China. At
the same time Vietnam will step up its relations with Japan, lndia and Russia.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Washington -

4," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief, May 30, 2OL7. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2O02.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 5
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 30,2017

[client name deleted]

Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc willvisit the United States and meet
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House, We request
your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. ln your view, what is the significance of Prime Minister Phuc's visit for Vietnam?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is the first leader from Southeast Asia to
be received by President Donald Trump at The White House. Phuc's visit is the result
of proactive diplomacy by Vietnam's Ambassador to Washington as well as the Foreign
Minister Pham Binh Minh. Phuc's visit reaffirms that both sides respect each other's
political systems and will positively work to advance the comprehensive partnership
agreed under President Obama's Administration.

Q2. What achievements can Vietnam expect from this visit?

ANSWER: The most important result of this visit will be to create a new mechanism to
deal with bilateral economic issues and thus avoid any possible punitive action by the
Trump Administration. Vietnam ranks sixth on the list of countries currently under
review for having a large trade surplus with the United States. Vietnam will make it
easier for US business to invest and work in Vietnam.

During Prime Minister Phuc's visit it is expected that a number of commercial

agreements will be signed relating to aircraft, aircraft parts and oil and gas
exploration. Some analysts suggest the total of these agreements will reach US S10
billion. These agreements will please President Trump.
The two leaders will reaffirm their commitment to the peaceful settlement of
territorial disputes in the South China Sea on the basis of international law including
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Both will call for the
implementation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)
and the early conclusion of a Code of Conduct.

Q3. What do you think about Trump's foreign policy towards Asia and particluarly
South East Asia?
 2

ANSWER: US foreign policy under Trump is still a work in progress. President Trump
has yet to make senior appointments to the Departments of State and Defense. These
senior appointments include officials with regional expertise.
Trump has given priority to the defeat of international terrorism, especially the so-
called lslamic State, and halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their means
of delivery in North Korea. To meet this second priority Trump has stressed the
importance of alliance partners, Japan and South Korea. The only notable action by
the Trump Administration has been to conduct its first freedom of navigation
operational patrol near Mischief Reef in the Spratly islands.
lmportantly, President Trump has agreed to attend the ASEAN Summit in Manila and
the APEC Summit in Vietnam at the end of the year. Prime Minister Phuc will formally
deliver the official invitation to APEC to President Trump. These future visits will serve
to hurry up the process of formulating a foreign policy for the region.
The US Congress mandates that the new Administration must submit a Nati6nal
Security Strategy to the Congress within 120 days of taking office. This strategy is being
drawn up but it will not meet the deadline. The National Security Council will then
preside over an inter-agency process to draw up a final draft for President Trump's
approval. Once this document is issued, the US will draw up a Maritime Security
Strategy that should address, among other issues, Chinese assertiveness in the South
China Sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Washington -

5," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief, May 30, 2017. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam's Prime Minister to
Visit Washington - 6
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 30,2017

[client name deleted]

As you know, today (29th May), Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc travels
to the United States for the first trip under President Donald Trump.
We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. What does this trip mean for Vietnam and US?
ANSWER: The meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Phuc is an
essential starting point to review bilateral relations and decide on future priorities.
That Trump is receiving Phuc is important in reaffirming the comprehensive
partnership and respect for each other's political systems, lt will be an opportunity for
both leaders to get to know each other. This is important because President Trump
will be attending the APEC and ASEAN summits later in the year. Finally, the meeting
of the two leaders should lessen strategic uncertainty about Trump's engagement
with Vietnam and in Southeast Asia.
Q2. How does this trip impact on the South China Sea issue?
ANSWER: This visit will serve to reinforce the convergence of strategic interests
between Vietnam and the US. The US and Japan played a strong role in drafting the
maritime security section of the G7's[Group of 7] joint communique. Both leaders will
recommit to supporting the peaceful resolution of disputes under international law
and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Both sides will reaffirm
their support for freedom of navigation and overflight. President Trump or other
Cabinet members, will commit the United States to support capacity building in
Vietnam for maritime security.

Q3. What is your assessment of the Vietnam-US relationship in the near future?
ANSWER: As a result of Prime Minister Phuc's visit it is likely that the task of building
on the comprehensive partnership will be devolved to lower level officials. New
priorities will be set, such as developing a framework on how to improve economic
relations after Trump pulled the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership.

Q4. What is your assessment about Vietnam's relations with the US and in the Asia
Pacific region and the world?
 2

ANSWER: Vietnam is firmly committed to multilateralizing and diversifying its external

relations especially with respect to major powers. Prime Minister Phuc's visit has pre-
empted a drift in relations with the United States. Vietnam wants a multipolar balance
in the Asia Pacific and for this to be maintained the United States must remain
engaged. Without a strong US presence China's power and influence would only
increase. All regional states, Vietnam included, would have to take this into account.
Vietnam and other regional states will welcome US-China cooperation on
lnternational issues and in particular on non-proliferation on the Korean Peninsula.
This is the key hot spot issue that could seriously threaten peace and security in the
region and globally.

Vietnam is viewed by many countries, the US included, as a strong, positive and

productive player in regional security affairs. Vietnam is also well respected for its
positive contributions to global security, both during its time as non-permanent
member of the UN Security Council and subsequently.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam's Prime Minister to Visit Washington -

6," Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief, May 30, 2077. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.