Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

US-Vietnam: Outcome of
President Trump-Prime Minister
Phuc White House Meeting -1

Carlyle A. Thayer
June 1,20t7
lclient name deleted]
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc made a visit to the United States and met
with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. Request your
assessment of the following issues:

Q1. What do you make of how trade issues topped the agenda of the meeting? What
does it mean for the future bilateral ties between the two countries?
ANSWER: Prior to the visit the biggest risk facing Vietnam was that the Trump
Administration's effort to reduce trade imbalances with China and other countries
could result in collateral damage in US-Vietnam relations. This risk has been mitigated
but not resolved by Prime Minister Phuc's meeting with President Trump. There was
no question that trade issues would be at the top of the agenda. Vietnam has been
proactive in offering suggestions to the US trade Representative to increase US trade.
Visits by head of state are often accompanied by commercial deals and this was the
case with Prime Minister Phuc's visit. This pleased President Trump.

The most important outcome of Prime Minister Phuc's visit is President Trump's
strong affirmation that the comprehensive partnership will be the foundation for
bilateral relations and that it can be built on and extended in the nine areas of
cooperation included in the original agreement.
Q2. Does the meeting help to give any assurance to other Southeast Asian countries
about Washington's commitment to the region? lf, so why? lf not, why not?
ANSWER: President Trump's strong support for Vietnam, coupled with prospective
sales of defence equipment, Coast Guard cutters and a potentialvisit by a US aircraft
carrier, signal strong US support for Vietnam, The section of the Joint Statement that
touched on the South China Sea reaffirmed the central tenets of ASEAN's position. The
fact that the two leaders gave their support to "legal and diplomatic processes"
[reference to the July 20L6 Arbitral Tribunal Award in the case brought by the
Philippines against China] was significant. This expression was removed from the
ASEAN Summit Chairman's Statement earlier this year,

Q3. Given that Southeast Asia is projected to be one of the most vulnerable countries
to climate change, what does Trump's plan to pull out of the Paris Accord mean for
the leadership role of the U.S. in this regard?
 2

ANSWER: lt is significant that President Trump committed the United States to

continue to assist Vietnam to mitigate the effects of climate change. Vietnam ranks
among the ten countries in the world most likely to be negatively impacted by climate
change. lf Trump announces the US withdrawal from the Paris Accord this will have
more of an impact domestically in the United States; but the international community
will see this as an abnegation of the traditional global leadership role of the US.
ln the long term, however, failure by the international community to take effective
measures to reduce gas emissions and other steps to mitigate the effects of fossils
fuels on the environment, means that countries like Vietnam will be threatened by sea
level rise.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "US-Vietnam: Outcome of President Trump-

Prime Minister Phuc White House Meeting -1-," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief ,
June 1, 2017. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search forThayer). To
remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and
hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
US-Vietnam: Outcome of
President Trump-Prime Minister
Phuc White House Meeting - 2

Carlyle A. Thayer
June 1,2017
[client name deleted]
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc concluded his visit to the United States
where he met President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House.

Q1. What is your assessment of the outcome of the visit?

ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit to the United States and his meeting with
President Trump is an outstanding success. lt indicates that Vietnam's proactive
diplomacy and hard work in advance of the meeting between Trump and Phuc
resulted in a ringing reaffirmation of their comprehensive partnership as the basis for
the further enlargement of bilateral ties. All the major nine areas of the original
comprehensive partnership were addressed. Vietnam and the United States will now
enter a new phase in their relations. The interests of both sides were addressed in an
even-handed fashion.
There is an English language expression "the proof is in the pudding", in other words,
the success of this visit will only be seen in the implementation of what the two leaders
agreed upon in their Joint Statement.

Q2. Some say that PM Phuc used deals worth billions of dollars to court Trump,
resulting in a rather smooth and favorable visit. What is your assessment on that?
ANSWER: The visit of a government leader to another country is usually accompanied
by a flurry of commercial agreements. ln this case, the advance work of both parties
concerned resulted in various agreements estimated at between 58 and StS billion.
This certainly created a favorable atmosphere and President Trump responded
positively. ln addition, Vietnam's S30 billion trade surplus, a potential serious irritant
in bilateral relations, was addressed head on. Vietnam was flexible and offered ideas
on how US businesses could step of their sales to Vietnam. Trade issues were always
going to top the agenda. Prime Minister Phuc's visit set the stage for further detailed
discussions by trade specialists.

Despite the seeming chaos of The White House, and the strategic uncertainties caused
by President Trump's many contradictory statements, Vietnam now has a clear
understanding of where bilateral relations with the US will go in coming years. This
will be reassuring. Vietnam will still be able to "multilateralize and diversify" its
bilateral relations in the knowledge that the US will remain committed to the
comprehensive partnership with Vietnam and also remain engaged in Southeast Asia.
 2

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "US-Vietnam: Outcome of President Trump-

Prime Minister Phuc White House Meeting - 2," Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief ,
June L, 2017. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To
remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and
hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 '.t23
US-Vietnam: Outcome of
President Trump-Prime Minister
Phuc White House Meeting - 3

Carlyle A. Thayer
June 2,2017
[client name deleted]
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc concluded his visit to the United States
where he met President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We
request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. What do you think of the meeting between two leaders of former foes? Will the
gains in closer relations under Obama Administration continue under Trump?

ANSWER: President Trump and Prime Minister Phuc spoke for thirty minutes through
interpreters according to reports. The meeting went quite well because thorough
preparations had been made in advance. Both leaders not only spoke to each other
but they were also addressing their domestic audiences. There were no public
disagreements and both sides appeared quite satisfied with the result. Prime Minister
Phuc got what he came for - a reaffirmation from President Trump that he and his
Administration would continue to support and expand their bilateral comprehensive
partnership.

Q2. What does Trump Administration want from its relationship with Vietnam ? And
what does Vietnam want from the relationship?
ANSWER: President Trump wants Vietnam to open its markets to American businesses
and investment with the aim of lowering the trade imbalance and creating more jobs
in the United States. Trump also wants Vietnam's support for halting nuclear
proliferation on the Korean peninsula and support to curb international terrorism.
Vietnam wants to further expand the comprehensive partnership in all nine areas of
cooperation listed in the originalJoint Statement on Comprehensive Partnership. And
Vietnam would like the US to grant it market economy status.

Q3. Do you think The Trump Administration will undertake stronger defense
cooperation with Vietnam and to have more freedom of navigation patrols in the
South China Sea?

ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit was accompanied by demonstrations of progress

in defence cooperation such as the delivery of six metal Shark fast boats and a former
US Coast Guard Cutter. Both sides made general statements about stepping up
defence cooperation. Prime Minster Phuc told President Trump that Vietnam was
interested in acquiring another Coast Guard Cutter. There was also a suggestion that
 2

Vietnam might receive a visit by an American aircraft carrier. Generally, both sides left
the specifics of defence cooperation for a later date to be worked out by appropriate
officials.
The Joint Statement included a long paragraph on the South China Sea and maritime
security. This illustrated a convergence of views on this issue. Vietnam is likely to
benefit by increased support for maritime security capacity building.
Q4. U.S. has withdrawn from the Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP). Vietnam is very active
in enhancing relationship with U.S., at least on trade and investment. Do you think
Vietnam and U.S. will soon reach a free trade agreement under Trump administration?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's main objective was to address Trump's public
concerns about Vietnam's large trade imbalance with the United States.. Prime
Minister Phuc not only wanted to address these concerns but create what he called a
"new mechanism" to discuss bilateral economic and trade issues. He succeeded.
Prime Minister Phuc was flexible and demonstrated that Vietnam was willing to
cooperate with the United States not only to address its concerns but for mutual
benefit. A formal trade agreement is likely to take longer than a year.
Q5. What is the biggest challenge facing Vietnam and the United States?
ANSWER: The biggest challenge for the two countries is to manage their future
economic relations so that both parties are satisfied. During Prime Minister Phuc's
visit trade deals were made valued at between 58 and S15 billion. Both sides want
better access to each other's markets. The US wants the trade imbalance to be
lowered while Vietnam wants to expand the focus from trade to include other
economic issues such as investment and development assistance.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "US-Vietnam: Outcome of President Trurmp-

Prime Minister Phuc White House Meeting - 3," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief ,
June 2, 20L7. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To
remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and
hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
US-Vietnam: Outcome of
President Trump-Prime Minister
Phuc White House Meeting - 4

Carlyle A. Thayer
June 2,2017
[client name deleted]
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc concluded his visit to the United States
where he met President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at The White House. We
request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. What are your comments on the results of Phuc's visit to the U.S?

ANSWER: Prime Minister Phuc's visit to the United States and his meeting with
President Donald Trump was an outstanding success due to thorough preparations
made by both sides. lt is clear from the fact that both leaders spoke for thirty minutes
through interpreters that all the issues included in the leaders'Joint Statement could
not have been discussed in depth. ln other words, the face-to-face meeting was
general in nature and both leaders got to meet each other for the first time. Both
leaders spelled out their chief concerns and left it to other officials to fill in the details.

Q2. How has the Trump Administration treat Phuc?

ANSWER: The Trump Administration provided Prime Minister Phuc a strong
confirmation that it will continue to support all agreements made with the Obama
Administration and expand them in the future. President Trump and his Trade
Representative both voiced their concerns about the trade imbalance with Vietnam
but importantly signaled that they would work with Vietnam to address this issue
rather than apply any sanctions. Human rights were mentioned in the Joint Statement
but probably not discussed directly; it is clear that this will not be an impediment in
bilateral relations.
Q3. What is the most remarkable result for Phuc in this visit?

ANSWER: The most remarkable result of this visit was the comprehensive Joint
Statement issued by the two government leaders. This document covered xtensive
areas of cooperation, provided details of cooperation, and laid out a virtual road map
for the future. Both sides were able to include their particular views and aspirations.
Phuc can return to Vietnam assured that the relationship with the US will continue to
give Vietnam leverage in its dealings with China. And Trump can argue that Vietnam's
willingness to address trade imbalance issues is the way to go in relations with the
United States.

Q4. What will the relationship between the U.S and Vietnam be after this visit?
 2

ANSWER: There will be increased momentum in the bilateral relationship based on

the present comprehensive partnership. This comprehensive partnership will be
expanded in the nine areas of cooperation outlined in the original document, for
example, science and technology and education.

Q5. Did Vietnam offer to buy any weapons?

ANSWER: lt is my understanding that the two leaders only touched on issues in a
general way. We know from the Joint Statement that Prime Minister Phuc expressed
interest in acquiring another US Coast Guard Cutter and would consider a future visit
by an American aircraft carrier. lt is more likely that appropriate senior officials from
both sides will meet to discuss any Vietnamese purchases of US weapons and military
equipment.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "US-Vietnam: Outcome of President Trump-

Prime Minister Phuc White House Meeting - 4," Thayer Consultoncy Background Brief ,
June 2, 2017. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search forThayer). To
remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and
hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.