Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Electoral Risks for
Hun Sen?
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 29, 2017

[client name deleted]

We request an assessment of the forthcoming commune elections in Cambodia.
Q1 - What are the risks for Hun Sen/Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP) in this election?
ANSWER: All commune elections lead to the election of opposition local officials in
various constituencies. Therisk for Hun Sen and the CPP is an erosion of their
commanding majority by the election of CNRP and other candidates. This could set
the stage for a revival of the opposition in the 2018 national elections.
On the other hand, if the CPP romps in with a larger majority, it is likely this result will
lead to opposition protests and perhaps sporadic violentdemonstrations.
Q2 - Is this election a threat to Hun Sen's three-decade rule?
ANSWER: Any diminishment of the CPP's majority at commune level will be projected
to the national level. Not only will the opposition be emboldened but members of the
CPP may be concerned about their grip on power. This could lead to a step up in
repression and "law fare" against the opposition as Cambodia shifts focus from the
local to next year's national elections. Depending on how great a loss the CPP received
there could be moves in the CPP to ease Hun Sen from power.
On the other hand, if the CPP gains in the local elections this will further entrench Hun
Sen in power. Some party members will bandwagon with Hun Sen but others will feel
their advancement will be thwarted by Hun Sen's continued incumbency.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Electoral Risks for Hun Sen?,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 29, 2017. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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