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Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123


Southeast Asia: Islamic States
Second Front?
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 3, 2017

[client name deleted]


We request your assessment of the current state of international terrorism in South
East Asia.
Q1. Why has South East Asia recently become a potential terrorism hot spot in the
Philippines, Indonesia or Thailand?
ANSWER: Religiously inspired political violence - or terrorism - is not new to Southeast
Asia. Shortly after Indonesia declared independence Islamic extremists attempted to
establish an Islamic State or Darul Islam and ignited an insurgency on Java that took
years to end. The Muslim community in the southern Philippines - the Moros - has
conducted an armed struggle for autonomy if not separation from the Philippines for
decades. And the Malay Muslim majority provinces in southern Thailand initiated
violence against the Thai state in the 1960s.
Southeast Asia's terrorist hot spots were re-ignited by veterans returning from
Afghanistan where they were trained by Al Qaeda. Jemmah Islamiyah (JI) attempted
to unite Moslems in Malaysia, Singapore, southern Philippines and even Australia.
The emergence of the Islamic State (ISIL) and the declaration of a Caliphate has drawn
hundreds of volunteers from Southeast Asia and Australia to fight in Syria and Iraq.
The Abu Sayaaf Group and other Islamic extremist groups in the Philippines declared
their loyalty to ISIS.
Security officials believe that as ISIL loses control of territory and is weakened by major
battlefield casualties in the Middle East, Southeast Asian veterans will return to their
home countries and bring with them military skills and organizational abilities to re-
ignite the hot spots.
Q2. Some are worrying that ties between the Philippines-based groups and their
counterparts in Indonesia and Malaysia are also growing, which can lead to a "unified
Islamist front" in South East Asia. What do you think about the threat or the so-called
"IS goes East" concern?
ANSWER: Islamic veterans from Afghanistan that were trained by Al Qaeda created an
embryonic pan-Southeast Asia movement in the 1990s that spanned Malaysia,
Indonesia and the southern Philippines. The JI network was largely wound up by
effective counter-terrorism operations by the states concerned. There has always
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been a connection between the southern Philippines and eastern Malaysia across the
Sulu Sea. In recent months there has been a revival of terrorist activity. The return of
veterans from the Middle East is a serious concern by security officials because these
persons will have knowledge of explosives and can conduct attacks that kill many
innocent civilians. But it is unlikely that a new united front will emerge at this time.
States in Southeast Asia have gained experience and knowledge in dealing with
terrorists on a cooperative region-wide basis.
Q3. What do South East Asian nations need to do to fight the scourge of terrorism? Is
there any difference with the current fight against IS in the Middle East?
ANSWER: There are no large organized military-styled terrorist groups in Malaysia or
Indonesia. There are armed Islamic groups in the southern Philippines but they form
different factions and differ on their objectives.
Southeast Asian states need to enact two types of strategies. The first is a proper law
enforcement approach to dealing with armed violence that minimizes civilian
casualties. The second strategy needs to address the grievances that terrorists have
identified to rally supporters to their cause. This means improving governance, the
rule of law, non-discrimination and social justice.
The difference between the Middle East and Southeast Asia, is that terrorists in the
former established a so-called Islamic state over wide territory with a large
population. In Southeast Asia the groups are much smaller, operate in isolated regions
and do not control much of the population.
Q4. What do you think will be the focus of Shangri-La Dialogue this year and why?
ANSWER: The Shangri-La Dialogue has already begun and it is clear that three security
issues are being addressed: proliferation on the Korean peninsula, international
terrorism, and Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.
These are the issues raised because they reflect the concerns of the invited speakers
who come from countries allied with the United States and the United States itself.
The speakers include the Prime Minister of Australia, the US Secretary of Defense
James Mattis, and the Ministers for Defence of Australia and Japan. These are like-
minded countries that share similar views.
China will dissent from any criticism of its activities in the South China Sea.
Q5. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is going to deliver the keynote
opening speech. Why is he chosen for the role? And what do you expect him to say?
ANSWER: The organizers of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the International Institute of
Strategic Studies, generally rotates speakers from among the key countries in the
region. Prime Minister Turnbull has already spoken at this years Shangri-La Dialogue
and what is significant were his strong comments on China, urging Beijing to abandon
its assertive behaviour and give support for a rules-based regional order.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Southeast Asia: Islamic States Second Front?,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 3, 2017. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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