Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

China-Vietnam: High-Level
Party Meeting in July?
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 12, 2017

[client name deleted]

It has just been reported that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo has asked
to meet with the Vietnam Communist Partys (VCP) Politburo in Hanoi sometime in
July. It is rumored that this requested meeting was precipitated by Prime Minister
Nguyen Xuan Phucs visit to the United States and Japan recently.
Can you provide an assessment on Vietnam-China relations and any background that
would provide a context for this reported meeting?
ASSESSMENT: The notion that the CPP Politburo has requested a meeting with the
VCP Politburo is extraordinary. This would be unprecedented. It is possible that one
or two senior CCP Politburo members could visit Vietnam for discussions; but the
entire CPP Politburo is improbable.
A meeting at this level suggest strategic issues will feature such as party-to-party ties
(possibly related to the forthcoming 19th CCP congress, a high-level theoretical
seminar, and Xi Jinpings attendance at the APEC Summit in Da Nang); economic
relations in a period of US unilateralism and anti-globalization; regional issues such as
ASEAN and, as a separate issue, the South China Sea; and major power relations in the
region and possible Chinese concern about a Japan-United States-Vietnam alignment.
This latter issue is problematic because China is also promoting working relations with
Japan and the United States.
The background for a possible July meeting would be the visits to China by Prime
Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc (late last year) and President Tran Dai Quang (this year).
Vietnam and China are also preparing for their fourth friendly border exchange that
involves ministers of national defence.

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