MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30- JUN-2017 122.60 122 121.60 120.90 120.50 119.90 119.50 118.80 118

COPPER 30- JUN-2017 373.00 371.20 369.60 367.50 365.90 363.8 362.20 360.10 359.00

CRUDE OIL 19-JUN-17 2940 2923 2911 2895 2883 2867 2855 2839 2820

GOLD 04-AUG-2017 28950 28892 28845 28768 28721 28644 28597 28520 28461

LEAD 30- JUN-2017 139.60 137.80 137 136.20 135.40 134.60 133.80 133.00 132.10

NATURAL GAS 25-JUN-2017 203.00 201.50 200.40 198.10 196.90 194.60 193.40 191.10 190.00

NICKEL 30- JUN-2017 584.70 582.70 580.70 577.70 575.70 572.70 570.70 567.70 564.70

SILVER 05-JUL-2017 39351 39131 38980 38731 38580 38331 38180 37931 37651

ZINC 30- JUN-2017 166.60 165.5 164.40 163.40 162.50 161.40 160.50 159.30 158.10

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30- JUN-2017 127 125.50 123.90 122 120.50 119 117.90 116.10 114.50

COPPER 30- JUN-2017 381.90 377.90 373.90 369.90 365.90 361.90 357.90 352.90 348.90

CRUDE OIL 19-JUN-17 3051 3015 2980 2925 2883 2850 2815 2775 2745

GOLD 04-AUG-2017 29451 29250 29100 28901 28721 28597 28420 28200 28020

LEAD 30- JUN-2017 148.10 145.50 142.50 139.50 135.40 133.40 130.40 128.40 125.40

NATURAL GAS 25-JUN-2017 207.90 204.50 202.50 199.50 196.90 193.10 190.10 187.10 184.10

NICKEL 30- JUN-2017 611.10 599.90 590.90 581.90 575.70 566.10 555.00 545.10 536.20

SILVER 05-JUL-2017 39980 39500 39150 38990 38580 38211 37950 37500 37110

ZINC 30- JUN-2017 171.50 168.50 166.50 164.50 162.50 160.10 157.50 154.90 152.10

Monday, 19. June .2017

 FOREX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-JUNE-17 66.25 65.85 65.32 64.99 64.52 64.00 63.49 62.99 62.49

EURINR 28-JUNE-17 74.30 73.90 73.50 72.65 72.15 71.85 71.41 71.01 70.60

GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 83.45 83.06 82.85 82.65 82.45 82.25 82.00 81.79 81.51

JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 59.32 58.92 58.52 58.32 57.99 57.60 57.30 57.00 56.30

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-JUNE-17 65.00 64.90 64.80 64.65 64.52 64.40 64.19 64.00 63.90

EURINR 28-JUNE-17 72.57 72.46 72.35 72.25 72.15 72.03 71.90 71.77 71.65

GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 82.95 82.81 82.70 82.56 82.45 82.31 82.17 82.05 81.90

JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 58.45 58.32 58.21 58.10 57.99 57.85 57.70 57.60 57.49
 NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JUL-2017 649.00 646.00 643.00 640.00 637.00 635.00 632.00 629.00 626.00

SYBEANIDR 20-JUL-2017 2890 2867 2842 2821 2796 2775 2750 2729 2700

RMSEED 20-JUL-2017 3689 3655 3632 3613 3590 3571 3548 3529 3499

JEERAUNJHA 20-JUL-2017 19700 19563 19322 19143 18902 18723 18482 18303 18150

GUARSEED10 20-JUL-2017 3708 3658 3610 3578 3530 3498 3450 3418 3371

TMC 20-JUL-2017 5940 5890 5840 5806 5754 5720 5670 5638 5600

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JUL-2017 660.00 654.90 649.00 643.00 637.00 632.00 626.00 620.00 614.00

SYBEANIDR 20-JUL-2017 2999 2950 2890 2842 2796 2750 2700 2650 2600

RMSEED 20-JUL-2017 3780 3740 3689 3632 3590 3571 3499 3445 3401

JEERAUNJHA 20-JUL-2017 20150 19900 19700 19322 18902 18482 18150 17900 17610

GUARSEED10 20-JUL-2017 3820 3778 3708 3610 3530 3450 3371 3350 3331

TMC 20-JUL-2017 6100 6000 5940 5840 5754 5670 5600 5554 5500
MCX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in three months and said it would begin cutting
its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and
strengthening job market. In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of
1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a
recent run of mixed economic data. The U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had
continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as
largely transitory. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of
Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009
financial crisis and recession. It expects to begin the normalization of its balance sheet this year, gradually
ramping up the pace.

China's factory output and retail sales grew at a steady pace in May but investment slowed, reinforcing
views that the world's second-largest economy will soon start to lose some momentum as lending costs rise and
the property market cools. Global concerns about China have resurfaced since Moody's Investors Service
downgraded its credit ratings last month, saying it expects the country's financial strength will erode in coming
years as growth slows and debt continues to rise. But most analysts predict only a gradual loss of momentum in
coming months, especially as the government is keen to maintain economic and financial market stability
ahead of a major political leadership reshuffle in autumn. May data released on Wednesday appeared to
reinforce that consensus view, with still solid factory output and retail sales, and only a slight slowdown in
fixed asset investment. However, property investment and construction showed a much sharper deceleration
after a slew of government cooling measures in recent months. Factory output rose 6.5 percent in May from a
year earlier, statistics bureau data showed.

A drawdown in crude oil inventories will accelerate in the next three to four months, Saudi Energy Minister
Khalid Al-Falih said. Al-Falih, speaking to reporters in the Kazakh capital of Astana, also said Saudi Arabia
planned to grow exports to the US in the long-term. The US market will always be key (to us), in the long
term we will continue and grow exports to the US, today the US is well supplied, AlFalih told a briefing. On
Saturday, the Saudi energy minister said: There is no evidence a pact by global oil producers to curb output
needs to be adjusted. Al-Falih also said the decision by Saudi Arabia and some of its allies to cut ties with
Qatar this week would not affect the oil pact. I do not expect the diplomatic and political issues that have
surfaced with Qatar to have any impact whatsoever on the oil production agreement, he told reporters in
Kazakhstan. US data this week showed a surprise 3.3- million-barrel build in crude stocks to 513.2 million
barrels. Inventories of refined products also rose, despite the start of the peak-demand summer season. US
production is also increasing. Drillers added eight oil rigs in the week to Friday bringing the total count to 741,
the most since April 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. The Saudi energy minister said that the
data was a local phenomenon.

GOLD

Precious metals ended lower for a third straight week and the FOMC decision last week increased the selling
pressure. The Fed is closely watching inflation but didnt express any concern about the recent slowdown in
headline and core CPI. Inflation expectations however continue to decline suggesting that hawkishness by the
Fed is unwarranted. Investment demand has seen a pickup in recent weeks but holdings saw a decline last week
as prices fell. Indian gold imports jumped in the first four months but demand has declined in the runup to the
GST. The upcoming week is light on economic data and thereby we expect gold and silver to consolidate or
drift lower before we get any positive triggers. Gold prices have been on a broader uptrend this year but have
repeatedly failed to break above $1300 as markets still lack a major trigger to take prices beyond that important
level. The major events in recent weeks have also provided no real trigger. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to
1.00-1.25% as expected and most members see another rate hike at the end of this year. The Fed expects real
GDP to rise 2.1-2.2% in 2017, compared to its previous outlook of 2.0-2.2%. The Fed is closely watching
inflation but didnt express any concern about the recent slowdown. The details about trimming of the $4.5
trillion balance were released but there was no start date announced. When the unwinding starts, the Fed will
reduce reinvestments in Treasuries (TSY) at a rate of $6Bn/month and mortgage backed securities (MBS) at
$4Bn/month, totalling $10bn/month initially. It will increase the reinvestment caps in steps of $10bn ($6TSY+
$4MBS) at 3 month intervals over 12 months until it reaches a total 50bn per month. While, the Fed wasnt
explicitly hawkish, lack of concern over low inflation and recent slowdown in data implied a hawkish stance
which pressured precious metals. The other risk events in the past few weeks also have failed to help gold. The
UK election resulted in Conservatives losing majority and market reactions were limited to the pound and UK
assets with no global spillover. In the US, the testimony of ex-FBI director James Comey turned out to be a
damp squib as he failed to clarify if the President obstructed investigation into his campaigns Russian links.
Naturally, gold prices then fell back from seven month highs and the profit-taking is likely to extend in the near
term. The main focus of the markets will now turn to US economic data. The core PCE remains at 1.5%, far
from Feds 2% target while wage growth remains at 2.5% y/y. Inflation expectations also continue to decline
suggesting that hawkishness by the Fed is unwarranted. US bond market's gauges on inflation remain near their
lowest levels since November. In other data, Retail sales fell 0.3% last month and core CPI grew less than
forecast at 1.7% y/y. Consumer sentiment fell to 94.5 suggesting lack of optimism in the economy while
housing data also took a hit. Housing starts slumped 5.5% and building permits fell 4.9% in May. Labor market
data, while good on the whole, still has room to improve. The Non-farm payrolls increased by just 138k in May
and the payrolls for March and April were revised lower by 66k. The unemployment rate fell to a 16 year low
of 4.3% but that was largely due to the drop in participation rate from 62.9% to 62.7%. Wage growth at 2.5% is
still a good 100 bps lower compared to pre-recession levels suggesting that the labor market isnt tight. Q2
GDP forecasts continued to be revised lower and the Atlanta Fed model suggests growth of 2.9%, down from
4.0% last month. The other factor that has supported gold in recent weeks is the uncertainty over Donald
Trumps economic and legislative policy agenda. Reports suggest that Trump is under investigation for possible
obstruction of justice and this ongoing political uncertainty will underpin prices at lower levels. On the demand
side, Gold premiums in India have collapsed with prices quoting at a discount of $2-3 an ounce has buying has
slowed substantially in the run up to GST implementation. Jewellers have stocked heavily in the first four
months and this will likely impact imports in the coming months. Gold ETFs also saw an outflow with SPDR
holdings down 13 tonnes last week. Global gold ETF holdings are up 44 tonnes so far this month. Silver ETFs
in contrast are down by 167 tonnes this month after inflows of 658 tonnes in May. iShares Silver ETF holdings
are down ~140 tonnes month to date.

Last week, spot gold prices fell by 1 percent to close at $1253.1 per ounce as the Federal Reserve increased
interest rates but was less dovish than expected following a two-day meeting. It was the second time in three
months that the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point, which was widely expected, and the U.S.
central bank cited continued economic growth and job market strength. It also announced it would begin
cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year. During the week, prices fell to a three-week low,
weighed down by a stronger dollar as investors began to assess the potential for another U.S. rate hike later in
the year, supported by data showing a strong U.S. jobs market. The losses in gold were limited, however, with
bullion underpinned by myriad global uncertainties, including a report that U.S. President Donald Trump was
under investigation.

ENERGY

WTI oil prices plunged by 2.4 percent last week to close at $44.7 per barrel as a surprise build in U.S. gasoline
inventories and ongoing worries about heavy global supply weighed on it. Prices did not gain momentum
despite following comments by some Reuters sources that Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will cut
crude allocations to Asia in July to a total of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), deeper than in June. Further,
Data from market intelligence firm Genscape estimating a draw of more than 1.8 million barrels at the Cushing,
Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures last week added to the bullish sentiment. Oil has slumped
despite output cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
non-OPEC producers including Russia. On May 25, the countries said they agreed to extend the cuts nine
months through next March. Yet crude prices have slid about 12 percent since that day as other countries have
boosted output.
Crude oil saw a selloff for a fourth consecutive week as physical markets remain oversupplied and negative
triggers continue to exacerbate the selling pressure. US oil rig count increased for a 22nd straight week, rising
by 6 to 747 and has doubled y/y. Pressure on prices is also set to continue as we saw a surprise build in US
gasoline inventories last week. US oil production continues to edge up and is likely to surpass its peak later this
year as oil rigs are back near April 2015 levels. On the whole, we believe that rising US output and elevated
global inventories will continue to cap prices and markets will require credible evidence of re-balancing to find
a sustainable floor for oil prices. Natural gas remains weak on a seasonal basis and more downside cannot be
 ruled out. Context Despite OPECs attempts to lift prices, oil is back near 6- month lows as fundamentals
remain unsupportive. To offer a backdrop, the OPEC in its May meeting decided to extend output cuts until
March 2018. This means OPEC and Non-OPEC combined production will continue to be cut by 1.8 mbpd for
another 9 months. The OPEC believes that deal will bring inventories back in line with upper range of five-year
averages. The OPEC in its November meeting will take a call on the strategy based on market conditions. Still,
WTI prices have seen an extended selloff in the past few weeks as there are still no visible signs of tightness in
the market. OPECs production edged higher by 0.3 mbpd in May to 32.1 mbpd as Libyan and Nigerian
production increased. The re-balancing process remains slow and resumption in Nigerian and Libyan output
has complicated the OPEC strategy. Nigerian production is back at a 16 month high of 2.2 mbpd after Royal
Dutch Shell lifted force majeure on Forcados crude. Libyan output has nearly tripled from last year with
production nearing 0.8 mbpd. This roughly translates to an increase of about 0.4-0.5 mbpd from these two and
negates nearly half of the OPECs 1.2 mbpd cut. Non-OPEC supply forecasts also continue to be revised
upwards. The IEA sees Non-OPEC supply growth of 1.5 mbpd next year compared to demand growth of 1.4
mbpd. The revisions have been largely prompted due the fast rebounding shale oil production in the US. Oil rig
count has been increasing since June 2016 and is now at its highest since April 2015. At 747 rigs, US oil rigs
have more than doubled from the same time last year and point to more increases in oil output. EIA forecasts
show that US shale oil production is expected to rise further in June. The EIA drilling productivity report
showed that shale oil output will likely increase by 122,000 bpd in June to 5.40 mbpd. To put this in
perspective, in the downturn of 2015-2016, shale oil output fell from a peak of 5.46 million bpd in March 2015
to a low of 4.75 million bpd in December 2016. Since January 2017, shale production has started to edge up
and is now almost back near its peak. Weekly data from EIA shows that total US oil production is comfortably
above 9.3 million bpd, the highest since August 2015. The EIA forecasts output to reach a new record and
surpass 10.0 mbpd next year. This is going to remain the biggest headwind for oil prices. Meanwhile, US crude
oil inventories fell last week, but an unexpected build in gasoline stocks provided another negative trigger to
the market. Gasoline demand fell from 9.82 million bpd in late May to 9.27 million bpd despite the driving
season which was particularly bearish. OECD oil inventories also remain 291 million barrels above the fiveyear
average. On the whole, global oil stocks and US oil and product inventories still remain elevated and we are yet
to see a sustained drawdown implying that market rebalancing has still not gathered pace and that it will be a
long drawn process. As far geo-political factors go, oil prices have found little respite from the ongoing tussle
between Qatar and other GCC countries. While oil and LNG exports from Qatar have not been impacted, the
dispute is likely to impact OPEC unity and has raised questions about sustainability of the OPEC deal to cut
output. This is probably the reason we havent seen any risk premium getting built into prices. For natural gas,
prices fell as inventory injections continue and weather remains unsupportive. Working natural gas stocks are
2,709 Bcf, which is 11% less than the year-ago level and 9% more than the five-year average for this week. The
weather outlook in the coming weak implies moderate demand and hence we are unlikely to see any major
bounce back in prices.

BASE METAL
Base metals traded mixed, with much of the action seen in Zinc and Lead, while copper and aluminium were
under pressure and nickel traded flat. Copper was on track for its biggest weekly drop since early as markets
priced in higher US interest rate environment that would support US dollar. Latest ILZSG data shows zinc in
much wider deficit than anticipated, which could be supportive for zinc prices. Context Copper prices have
been choppy in broad range trading at lower end of range, not being influenced by positive data points.
Inventory on LME has been depleting continuously, but off late as we approach third Wednesday contract
expiry, which is this week, it often triggers influx of stock registrations in LME warehouses as traders deliver
against short positions, after depletion process tarts again. We will have to wait and watch how this expiry
happens and if similar activity is due this week also, which could pressurize prices. Data from the General
Administration of Customs shows a 30% drop in nation's copper import volume in April compared with
previous month. Declines in LMElisted copper began quickening in March as traders caught wind of
weakening Chinese demand. The price has been falling in lockstep with PMI. The US Federal Reserve raised
interest rates this week and indicated further tightening before year-end, boosting dollar and making
commodities priced in dollar term more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The hawkish tone from Fed has sapped some of interest for commodities in general and copper also. Large
speculators raised their net positions in Copper markets this week. Copper speculative positions have gained for
a second week and for four out of last five weeks. Net bullish positions are above +10,000 contract level for
second week after falling below this threshold on May 30th. On data front, U.S. homebuilding fell for third
straight month to lowest level in eight months as construction activity declined broadly, suggesting that housing
could be drag on economic growth in second quarter. Chinese data last week showed China's economy
generally remained on solid footing in May with industrial production at 6.5%, but tighter monetary policy,
cooling housing market and slowing investment reinforced views that it will gradually lose momentum in
coming months. Chinese fixed asset investment slipped to 8.6% in January-May, a decline of 0.3% point from
Jan-April reading. Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI, fell below 50 in May for the first time in 11
months, suggesting contraction. China's central bank plans to step up support for "green" financing, including
incentives to encourage banks to extend more loans for projects friendly to environment. In other metals,
Nickel prices have been sideways after a brief fall over the last couple of weeks, as prices have been pressured
by expectations of more supply from Philippines and Indonesia. Chinese steel futures rallied last week,
supported by government efforts to tackle a glut, even as the outlook for demand may not be too promising,
particularly from its property sector. Zinc and lead have been trading from over last week, recovering sharply
from recent lows. The latest ILZSG data shows, global market for refined zinc metal was in deficit by 112,000
mt for first four months of 2017,
with total reported inventories declining by 115,000 mt over same period, as per ILZSG. This compares with
20,000 mt deficit for same period in 2016. A rise in world refined zinc metal demand of 3.7% YoY to 4.606
million mt in January-April was primarily influenced by a 42.9% recovery in apparent usage in the US. World
zinc mine production increased by 7.3% to 4.269 million mt, mainly due to higher output in China, Eritrea,
India, Peru and Turkey. China imported a total of 385,000 mt of zinc contained in zinc concentrates in January-
April, an increase of 58,000 mt compared to the same period of 2016, but Chinese net imports of refined zinc
metal fell 114,000 mt year on year to 99,000 mt, which shows clear shift to concentrates as TC-RCs have been
on the lower side.LME Copper prices fell by 2.4 percent last week to close at $5663/t on Friday following
decision by the US fed to hike rates for the second time in three months in June. The Fed added to the hawkish
tone saying it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence
in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market. However, sharp decline was cushioned as supply
disruption concerns gained traction after heavy rains in Northern Chile. Operations at the BHP Billiton's
Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine had been suspended as a result of snowing. Also, mining activities
at State-run Codelcos Chuquicamata deposit and nearby Radomiro Tomic and Ministro Hales had been
suspended as a preventative measure, while Antofagasta said Centinela and Zaldivar suffered intermittent
interruptions.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW

SILVER

Silver prices opened flat in the last session and prices made a high of 38830. Later after opening session
prices fell gradually for the remaining session till low of 38430. Prices have been falling gradually after
taking strong resistance around its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent fall from 42750 til 37720
placed at 40828 level and also after breaking down from its short term rising trend line support. Prices are
expected to continue this fall towards next strong support placed around 37700 level.

CRUDEOIL

Crude has remained firmly on the defensive since Wednesdays inventories data with further concerns
surrounding underlying over-supply as US output continues to increase. The EIA said Wednesday that
gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by roughly 2m barrels
against expectations for a decline of 457,000 barrels. The bearish inventory report added to the current
negative sentiment on oil, after the IEA said Wednesday that non-Opec output was set to increase over the
near term. "For total non-Opec production, we expect production to grow by 700,000 bpd this year, but our
first outlook for 2018 makes sobering reading for those producers looking to restrain supply,the IEA said in
its monthly oil market report. Rising non Opec output has dented Opec and its allies global pact to reduce
oversupply in the market, which has pressured prices for nearly three years. Technically market is under
short covering getting support at 2858 and below same could see a test of 2840 level, And resistance is now
likely to be seen at 2894, a move above could see prices testing 2912.

NICKEL

Nickel prices opened slightly higher in the last session and prices consolidated for the whole session in the
range of 574-579 levels. Prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance in the
previous session and are expected to recover from these levels if break above its recent multiple highs placed
near 582 level towards next strong resistances placed around its previous swing highs near 609 and 619 level.
Immediate strong supports are placed around 563 and 558 levels.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

SOYABEAN

Soybean Jul futures corrected sharply on Thursday due to good forecast of rains in soybean growing
area of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in coming week. As per the government weekly sowing data,
area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was at 26,900 ha till last week, up
16.5% on year. The prices were under pressure all season on higher arrivals and bumper crop with the
farmers. However, reports of increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for soybean by Rs. 175 per
quintal to Rs. 2,950 per quintal may support prices. As per Agmarknet data, arrivals of soybean during
last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes in the previous week. CBOT
July soybean futures rose on Thursday, supported by a better-than-expected crushing report in the US.
The National Oilseed Processors Association said on Thursday morning that its members crushed
149.246 million bushels during May, the second busiest May on record and up from 139.134 million
bushels in April. As per USDA report, US soybeans are 92% planted vs 83% wk ago (87 pct 5-yr avg).
There are forecasts for crop-friendly rains in the United States which may be pressure on prices.
Moreover, higher beginning stocks and better production forecast for coming season will keep the
prices under control.Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 1.51% at 2832 on profit booking after prices
gained on anticipation that farmers may shift out of soybean this season and go for other kharif crops.
The prices were under pressure all season on higher arrivals and bumper crop with the farmers. As per
the government weekly sowing data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif
was at 26,900 ha till last week, up 16.5% on year. However, reports of increase in Minimum Support
Prices (MSP) for soybean by Rs. 175 per quintal to Rs. 2,950 per quintal may support prices. As per
data, arrivals of soybean during last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes
in the previous week. As per USDA report, US soybeans are 92% planted vs 83% wk ago (87 pct 5-yr
avg). As per USDA, 2016/17 world ending stocks are estimated at 93.2 mt, up 3.11 mt from the May
projection. The 2017/18 world ending stocks are shown as rising 3.41 mt to 92.22 mt. Informa
Economics updated their 2017 soybean planted acres estimate to 89.362 million acres, down slightly
from Mays number of 89.7 million acres. US soybean planting is 92% complete as which is up from
91% in the corresponding period last year and also up from 5 year average of 87%. Soybean emergence
is reported at 77% which is at par with the corresponding period last year and also up from 5 year
average of 73%.
Refined soy oil futures jumped higher on Thursday tracking weaker Rupees and increase in base import
prices of soy oil for next fortnight. Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second
half of May by $1 to $812 per tonne. Yesterday, Rupees weaken by about 0.48% against US dollar to
close at 64.54. Edible oil prices have increase over the week on anticipation that Government may
increase import duty. As per SEA, Import of soy oils during May 2017 is reported at 3.40 lt compared
to 1.78 lt in may 2016 up by 91% however, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period
from NovMay to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period

RMSEED

Mustard Jul futures fell 1.40% on Thursday due to profit booking by the market participants are
expecting lower crush demand due to higher imports of crude rape oil. As per SEA recent data, mustard
oil imports increase by 55.7% in May compared to last year imports. Moreover, imports for period
Nov-May increase to 1.18 lt in 2016/17 from 1.72 lt in the previous year. The trend is still upwards as
there is tight supplies in the physical market and improving crushing demand. Meal exports from the
country during last month jumped which improves demand for oilseed. Mustard meal exports have
increase 1275% in May this year at 42,488 tonnes compared to last year in May. Last year, India
exports about 3,090 tonnes of meals in May. The arrivals have been lower last week in the physical
market. As per agmarknet data, the mustard arrivals down to 32,344 tonnes, last week compared to
59,125 tonnes in the previous week.

SUGAR

Sugar Futures close unchanged due to reports of record sugar production next year. Sugar output in
Maharashtra is set to see a dramatic revival in coming season estimating a production of 73 lt for 2017-
18, a rise of 74% from last. According to government data, Sugarcane acreage in the country was at
47.4 lakh ha, higher than 44.8 lakh ha a year ago. According to industry sources, India's 2017/18 sugar
production will likely jump 25% from the previous year to 25 mt on good monsoon forecast. ICE Raw
sugar futures slumped further on Thursday, on expectation of higher output in Brazil. Brazil's state-
controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro further cut its average gasoline and diesel prices on
Wednesday, reducing the competitiveness of ethanol for Brazilian producers and adding to the bearish
mood in the sugar market. The sugar market is heading for a surplus of 3.5 million tonnes in 2017/18,
Sucden said in a quarterly report

COTTON

MCX cotton continue to close lower for the 4th trading session on Thursday on anticipation of good
production in the next season as sowing progress in the country starts in a brisk manner. As per latest
data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 14.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by
43% compared to last year acreage of 9.87 l ha for same period. In Haryana, acreage was at 630,000 ha,
up 28% on year, while in Punjab, the area under cotton was up 52% at 382,000 ha, the data showed. As
per ICAC, Cotton area in India is forecast to expand by 7% to 11.3 million hectares, and production
could increase by 3% to 6 mt in 2017/18. ICE futures fell fell over two percent to their lowest since
December on prospects of robust new crop yields due to favorable weather in the top growing regions.
The plantings have been going well in the U.S., China, and India. The weather has continuously been
moderate to good in all the planting areas. US sowing data showed 92% of cotton crops were planted in
the US by the week ended June 12, up from 80% in the previous week. Speculators reduced a bullish
stance in cotton futures and options to the lowest since November 2016.

JEERA

Jeera Jun futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of good physical demand. There is good
physical and exports demand while the stocks in the Exchange warehouse are diminishing. The jeera
arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year. As per Agmarknet data, about 10,688 tonnes of
jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports
increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. The stock
levels in the NCDEX warehouse as on Jun 14 were 1,238 tonnes which has been constant in June. Last
year, stocks were higher at 3,500 tonnes. NCDEX Turmeric fell over 1% on Thursday mainly on profit
booking after surging over 3% in the previous session. The physical demand is rising and market
arrivals are diminishing. However, the trend seems to be little sideways on reports of good rains in
turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers.
Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per Agmarknet data, about 6,378
tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. As per spice board,
Increased global demand for turmeric, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, drove its exports to
attain figures of 1,16,500 tonnes in volume and crossed Rs 1,241 crore in value terms in 2016-17

TURMERIC

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 3.27% at 5754 on profit booking after rising as the physical demand
is rising and market arrivals are diminishing. Pressure also seen on prices on reports of good rains in
 turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers.
Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per data, about 6,378 tonnes arrived
last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. On the export front, country exported
about 1.11 lakh tonnes in 2016/17 up by 30% compared to last year exports of 85,412 tonnes, as per
government data. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, finger turmeric sold at Rs.
5,606 to Rs. 7,591 a quintal and the root variety sold at Rs. 5,158 to Rs. 6,274 a quintal. At the
Regulated Marketing Committee, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,974 to Rs. 7,169, root variety sold at Rs.
5,009 to Rs. 6,019. Andhra Pradesh government projected 2016-17 turmeric crops at 155,000 ton up
from 121,000 ton in the previous year. According to traders, 2016-17 output is seen at 7.5 million bags
of 70 kg each and with over stock of nearly 3 million bags total availability is expected around 10.5
million bags. As against this, domestic demand is estimated at 5.5 million bags and export at 2.2 million
bags. Country exported 97,596 ton turmeric during April-Feb up 26.6% compared to last year exports
of 77,087 ton In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5557.15 Rupees dropped
-17.85 Rupees.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW

RM SEED

NCDEX RMSeed continues to form lower highs and lower lows on the daily time frame. Strong short-term
resistances are placed at Rs.3680 / 3760 whereas Rs.3510 / 3460 may act as immediate supports. Sideways to
negative movement is likely as long as price stays below Rs.3680 mark.

GUARSEED

Guar seed prices opened slightly higher in the last session and prices consolidated for most of the session in a
narrow range. Prices rose strongly in the closing session and closed near days high of 3562 level. Prices have
broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance and also closed above the same for previous three
consecutive sessions.NCDEX Guarseed took support near Rs.3170 mark and has bounced sharply. The short-
term bullish momentum is likely to continue targeting resistances near Rs.3650 / 3760 level. Strong short-term
supports are placed at Rs.3365 / 3150. Dip buying is advised.

SOYAOIL

Soy oil prices opened higher with gap in the last session and prices corrected sharply for first half of the session
and made a low of 634.50 level. Prices have taken strong resistance around 639 level in the previous few sessions
and formed a bearish bats harmonic pattern on the daily chart which is suggesting a strong correction in the
commodity for the near term. Prices are expected to fall from these levels towards immediate
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