Water ResourcesManagement 10: 199-218, 1996.

199
@ 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands,

Regional Analysis of Flow Duration Curves

for a Limestone Region
MARCO FRANCHINI
Universitd di Bologna,
Istituto di Costruzioni Idrauliche, Hale Risorgimento2,
40136 Bologna, Italy
and
MAURO SUPPO
AQUATER Co. (Snamprogetti, ENI), Pesaro, Italy

(Received: 29 November 1994; in final form: 5 December 1995)

Abstract. The methodology proposedpermits the regional analysisof that part of the duration curve
which refers to droughts. It only requires (1) the definition of an equation, characterisedby a set of
parameters, describing the lower part of the duration curve and (2) the identification of a suitable
number of statisticalregional laws enabling the parametersof the selectedequation to be calculated
in any location where no direct dischargemeasurementsare available.
An application of the methodology to a caseof the real world is then described.It refers to the
Molise Region (Italy) where the effect of outcropping limestone complexesheavily influences the
low flow characteristics.
Key words: drought analysis,regionalization, duration curve

1. Introduction

In order to study droughts in watercourses,the characteristicquantities used to

describeand identify this phenomenonmust first be defined.For instance,these
may be the instantaneousor daily averageminimum annualdischarge(Eratakulan,
1970;Gumbel, 1963;Moisello, 1981), or they may be theaveragedischargeduring
periods in which flow is below a constantor variable threshold value over time
(Yevjevich, 1967, 1981;Feller, 1968;Salazarand Yevjevich, 1975;Sen, 198Oa-c,
1990).Where the study also extendsto the seasonalvariations in drought events,
these characteristicsmay also be the mean dischargeover periods of time of a
given length associatedwith eachday of the year (Farmer and Homeyer, 1974;
Fugazzaand Moisello, 1978).Where, on the other hand,the study concernsthe
quantification of the mean dischargebehaviourduring periods of low flow, these
characteristicsmay be the mean daily dischargesbelow a presetvalue regardless
of their time sequence,which, in turn, may be describedusing the lower part of
the duration cuwe. The duration curve can be definedas the law which connects
eachvalue of dischargeto the correspondingexpectedproportionof dayson which
this value is exceededover a year in the long term. However, other definitions of
200 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

the duration curve may be given (Terstriepet al., 1982; Kikkawa and Takeuchi,
1975a-b;Takeuchi, 1988).
Although the choiceof thecharacteristicquantity will dependuponthe objective
of the hydrological analysis, this choice is also heavily influenced by the type
and quantity of information available in terms of data of hydrometry, geomorph-
ology, pluviometry and temperature.This conditioning is even more influential
when the study concernsriver sectionswithout direct measurements,where it is
thereforenecessaryto adoptregionalanalysisprocedureswhich, in turn, will vary
considerablyaccordingto the characteristicquantity selected.
This paper illustrates an extremely practical and simple regional nnalysis
methodology applied to a case where droughts are characterisedby using the
lower part of the durationcurve. A casestudy is then describedwhich refers to a
region in the south of Italy where the effect of outcroppinglimestone complexes
heavily influencesthe low flow characteristics.

2. Regional Analysis of Droughts Through the Lower Part of the

Duration Curve
2.1. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE REGIONAL ANALYSXS METHODOLOGY

The aim of a regional analysisis the transferto any ungaugedsite of the hydro-
logical information collected at the gaugedsites locatedwithin a region which is
homogeneousin terms of the characteristicquantity selected.In the caseconsid-
ered here,the hydrological information is representedby the part of the duration
curve referring to droughts.Thus, the regional analysisprocedureproposedwill
first require the definition of an equation,characterizedby a set of parameters,
describing the lower part of the duration curve and then the identification of a
suitablenumberof regional laws enablingthe parametersof the selectedequation
to be calculatedin any location of the region being studied.
The bearing structureof this methodologybasically follows the index value
method. In fact a model is formulated to representthe lower part of the duration
curve, while the regional curvesallow this model to be resealedat eachpoint of a
genericregion considered.

2.2. THE DURATION CURVE EQUATION

Some typical examples of duration curves may be seenin Figure 1. Figure la

showswatercourseswith sufficientlyhigh flow valuesfor most of theyear,although
they have some days with zero runoff. Figure lb is similar in form to Figure 1a,
but is shifted upwards so that it representswatercourseswith fluvial behaviour.
Figures lc-ld areconcave,curving upwardslike a typical depletioncurve and are
usually observedin watercourseswith markedtorrential behaviour;the transition
from one to the other generally dependson soil permeability: as permeability
decreasesso the durationof zero flow is extended.
R!ZGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 201

I$-+ lb)
0 100 0 100
Durarion (k) rb Duration (%) 9

Figure I. Typical forms of Duration Curves. Figure la shows watercourseswith sufficiently

high flow valuesfor most of the year,although they have somedayswith zerorunoff. Figure lb
is similar in form to Figure la, but is shifted upwards. It representswatercourseswith fluvial
behaviour. Figures lc-d are upwardly concave like a typical depletion curve and are usually
observed in watercourseswith marked torrential behaviour.

In orderto make the regionalanalysisof the part of the durationcurve referring

to droughts, the limits of this lower part should first be defined. If particular
referenceis madeto watercourseswith markedMediterraneanbehaviour,i.e., with
a single minimum period in summer, the lower part of the duration curve may
be approximately identified as the part of the curve where D (Duration) >70%
(about 3 months). Where the durationcurve is of the type shown in Figures 1~4
however,this criterion would obviously make no sense,sincezeroflow conditions
might occur for more than 50% of the genericyear (6 months).Accordingly, in
this casewe would either haveto usethe entire durationcurve or the part showing
a decreasingtrendtypical of a depletioncurve (for instance,D 230%).
It should be notedthat, for a given duration curve,concavity variationsdo not
usually occurin therangebeingstudied.This is not surprisingwhenit is considered
that this part of the duration curve coversdischargequantities during periods of
scantrainfall leadingto the occurrenceof flow depletionphenomena,thesebeing
controlled by the hydrogeologicalfeaturesof the basin.Indeed,it is actually dueto
the type of hydrogeologicalfeaturesof the basinthat the lower part of the duration
curve may reveal a negativeexponentialbehaviourin some sites,while in others,
it may reveala downwardconcavity (seeFigure 1).
Having thus defined the part of the duration curve to which referencewill be
made, this part will henceforthbe referredto simply as the LPDC (Lower Part of
the Duration Curve), unlessotherwiseindicated.
 MARCOFRANCHINIAND MAUROSUPPO

100
3 3
Duration (%)
Figure 2. Three duration valuesselectedin sucha way asto coverthe duration rangeof interest.

The equation for the mathematical description of the LPDC can be expressed
as follows:

D = f(Q, ~1,. . -, ai,. . -74, Q>O (1)

where D is the duration, i.e., the expected fraction over a year in the long term
where Q 2 Q*, Q is the average daily discharge [m3/s] and ai are coefficients to
be calculated.
The following equations may be used for the LPDC:

Q = c[(lOO - D)/~J]/~, Pa)

Q = c + exp[a + &II]. (2b)

Equation (2a) applies to the sites where the duration curve reveals a clear downward
concavity, while Equation (2b) applies to the sites where the duration curve reveals
a negative exponential behaviour.

2.3. REGIONAL LAWS

Regional laws enable the evaluation of the three coefficients a, b, c of the Equa-
tions (2a-b) in any site of the region where no direct measurements are available.
The strategy to define the regional laws and, subsequently, the three coefficients a,
b, c, consists of the steps described below.

1. Referring to the gauged sites, the three coefficients a, b, c are calculated by

means of the least squares method, once the duration range of interest and the
shape of the LPDC have been selected.
2. Still referring to the gauged sites, three duration values Dk, k = 1, 2, 3, are
defined in such a way as to cover the domain of definition of the LPDC of
each gauged site (Figure 2). The three corresponding discharge values are then
regressed on a number of rainfall and/or geomorphologic parameters which are
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 203

characteristicof the relative basins,thusenablingthe following threestatistic

relationsto be defined:

Q~~=fic(R, . . . . pi ,..., P,;GI ,..., Gj ,..., GA, k = 1,2,3, (3)

whereI$ is the ith hydrologicalvalue andG, is thejth geomorphologicvalue.

3. The values of Pi and Gj are estimatedfor the genericsite where no direct
measureof dischargeis available.
4. Three couples(Qk, Dk), k = 1,2,3 arecomputedfor the ungaugedsite being
consideredby using Equation (3).
5. Finally, the threecoefficientsa, b, c are computedby solving one of the two
systemsgiven below, i.e.:

QD~ = c[(lOO - &)/cL]~, k = 1,2,3 (4)

and

Qaz = c + exp[a + be&], k = 1,2,3 (5)

accordingto the previously selectedshapeof the LPDC to be assignedto the

ungaugedsite being considered.

When using this procedure,the following operationsmust be performedfor the

explicit definition of the regional laws:

(a) definition of the durationof dischargeQol, ;

(b) definition of the type andnumber of parametersto be considered.
(c) definition of the form of the equationwhich representsthe statistic law fk.

Accordingly, the regional laws can only be found by meansof severalattempts.

Onceit hasbeenestablishedwhich durationsDk andparametersshouldbe consid-
ered,an attempt-formwill be assignedto the statisticrelationjk. The identification
of the regional laws must, however,be limited to extremely simple forms, to a
small number of parameters(as thesewould otherwiseconsiderablyincreasethe
varianceof the calculation) and to durationvaluesthat permit a sufficiently accu-
rate description of the areaof the durationcurve to which the regional analysisis
applied.

3. A Case Study: the Molise Region (Italy)

The methodology previously describedwas applied within the framework of the

Molise RegionWaterMasterPlan.Underthis MasterPlan a regionalanalysisof the
meanmonthly flows was also conductedon the basisof the methodologyproposed
204 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

by Ferraresi et al. (1988). Some of its intermediate results, relevant to the monthly
precipitation and evapotraspiration quantities, proved useful for the analysis of the
LPDC.

3.1. PHYSIOGRAPHICAL BACKGROUND

Although still subject to different and sometimes contrary interpretations, the geol-
ogy of Molise can be outlined as follows on the basis of the knowledge gained so
far and according to the division provided in the Neotectonic Map of Italy (CNR,
1987): the south-western sector (Apennines) including limestone ridges belong-
ing to the Mesozoic Age and parted by the depression of the Voltumo Valley.
These reliefs belong to the region of the underlying Apennine limestone platform
except for the Frosolone Mountains which are part of the geological domain of the
Lagonegrese-Molisano basin.
The great majority of the underground water resources of the area of the Molise
Region are due to the presence of complexes characterized by a high infiltration,
of which a brief description is given below.

(a) The central sector, consisting of argillaceous-arenaceous flysch, calcarenite

and boulder clay. This sector has little underground water resources with a
large number of extremely small aquifers feeding small springs with irregular
flow rates. On the other hand, the surface water resources are considerable.
(b) The northern sector composed of argillaceous Pleocene sediments covered by
sands and conglomerates deposited during the regressive phase of the Pleocene
marine cycle. These complexes should contain considerable water resources
which have not yet been estimated.

On the basis of the hydrogeological characteristics of the area, the stratigraphic

structure results in the following sequence:

(a) Mesozoic limestone platform lying on the Middle Lias dolomitic substrata;
slope sediments, sometimes transgressive and partially covering the above-
mentioned soils. This series is the core of the south-western Apennine reliefs.
(b) Calcareous series divided into a nonoutcropping lower sequence belonging to
a period between the Middle Triassic and the Lower Cretaceous and an out-
cropping upper sequence belonging to a period between the Lower Cretaceous
and the Upper Myocene. This series outcrops in the Frosolone Mountains and
in the Southern sector of the Campanari Hills.
(c) Myocene complex which can be divided into calcarenite sediments, argillaceous
arenaceous flysch sediments and boulder clay. This complex forms the central
core of the region.
(d) Pleocene marine clay.
(e) Pleistocene river terraces.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 205

(f) Pleocenesand-conglomeratesediments.
(g) Recentand presentdebris,alluvial andeolian sediments.

Theselast groups(d, e, f, g) form the Northern andcoastalpart of the region.

3.2. EFFECT OF THE LIMESTONE COMPLEXES ON THE REGIONALIZATION

PROCEDURE

The geological andhydrogeologicalconfigurationdescribedaboveclearly stresses

the importance of outcroppinglimestone complexesin relation to the infiltration
andcirculation of rainwater.Indeedthetopographicwatershedsoutlining thebasins
locatedin the region being studiedoften do not coincidewith the hydrogeological
watersheds.In addition,the fracturesystemandthekarstphenomenahavean influ-
enceon the direction of theundergrounddrainagewhich may flow into basinsother
thanthoseconsidered.In suchcircumstancesa directcorrespondence betweenarea,
amount of rainfall falling inside the topographicwatershedand amount of water
draining to the basin outlet is difficult to find. The effect of outcroppinglimestone
complexeson the rainfall-drainagetransformationmechanismmust thereforebe
taken into considerationto explain the amount of drained water. Figure 3 (sim-
plified reproductionof Celico map (1983))representsthe position of the different
geological complexes and the main directions of flow from limestone acquifers
which are indicatedwith the darkestshade.The dotted lines define the estimated
boundariesof the areaswhich feed springs(seealso Figure 4 for the legendof the
symbols). As a consequence,the draining basinrelevantto a certain site may not
coincide with the correspondingtopographicbasin,as previously mentioned.
This analysis,originally concernedwith the gaugedsitesin the Molise Region,
hasbeenextendedto gaugedsitesoutsidethatRegion in orderto provideadditional
data as requiredby the complexity of the hydrogeologicalsituation and the small
amount of information concerningthe Molise Region itself. Figure 3 also shows
the position of the gaugedsitesusedfor theanalysisandthe boundaryof the Molise
Region.
The effect of the outcroppinglimestone complexesmay increaseor decrease
the quantity of runoff with respectto the contribution of the topographicbasin
alone, dependingon the undergroundwater circulation. For example, the basin
at the gaugedsite on the Sangroriver at Opi (Code 3) has a limestone surface
inside the topographicbasin of 89.9 km2 (correspondingto 69.1% of the whole
topographic surface). However, a significant amount of infiltrated water flows
outside the basin and doesnot contribute to the groundwaterdischargerecorded
at the gaugedsite (note the direction of the arrows and the extensionof the area
delimited by the dotted lines in Figure 3). The Fibreno streamat Brocco (Code 16)
presentsa different situation. The limestone surfaceinside the topographicbasin
is 16.0 km2 (correspondingto 33.3% of the whole topographicsurface)whereas
the limestone surfacecontributingto the groundwaterdischargeis 340.0km2, i.e.,
206 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

Figure 3. Celico map (1983): (1) position of the different geological complexes and the main
directions of flow from limestone aquifers which are indicated with the darkest shade; (2)
location of the gauged sites. The dotted lines define the estimated boundaries of the areas
which feed springs (seeFigure 4 for the legend).

over seven times the total surface of the basin (see Figure 3). The large quantity
of groundwater discharge observed at that gauged site could not be explained if
related to the topographic basin alone.
An intermediate example is given by the Carpino stream at Carpinone gauged
site (Code 14), where 66.0 km2 out of 72.3 km2 of the topographic surface (i.e.
91.2%) is constituted by limestone outcrops, 44% (29.0 km2) of which contributes
to the groundwater discharge whereas 56% (37.0 km2) does not contribute since it
directs the flow outside the basin (see Figure 3).

3.3. AVAILABLE DATA

As previously anticipated, an examination of the available hydrological data for the

purposes of performing a regional analysis of the LPDC inside the basins situated
in the Molise region and, in part, in the Campania and Abruzzi regions, led to the
identification of the 16 gauged sites shown in Figure 3.
Daily average discharge data were collected for all the selected sites and the
entire duration curves were calculated for all of them. In Figure 5 some of these
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 207

Clay, sand, conglomerates, alluvial sediments with variable

hydraulic conductivity.
Arenaceous-marl, argillageous-calcareous, argillaceous-scistose
complexes with low hydraulic conductivity.
Calcareous-marl, calcareous-siliceous-marl complexes with high
hydraulic conductivity due to fracture and karst phenomena.
Pyroclastic rocks and lava with variable hydraulic conductivity
due to porosity and fracture phenomena.
Boundary of Molise Region (see Figure 3 and Figure 7).
Main flow directions within the limestone acquifers with high
hydraulic conductivity (see Figure 3).
Estimated boundary of the areas which feed springs and
aquifers (see Figure 3).
Watersheds outlining the basins relative to the ungauged sites
(see Figure 7).
Ungauged sites and their codes (see Figure 7).
10 Gauged sites and their codes (see Figure 3).
Figure 4. Legend of symbols for Celico map: see Figure 3 (position of the geological complexes
and gauged sites) and Figure 7 (ungauged sites).
208 MARCO PRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

ZLO

20.0

?s.n

no

5.0

0.0

Duration (%)

201) -

a.0 -.

Duration (%)

Figure 5. Some examples of duration curves in the duration range 15-100%. The abbreviation
LPDC (Lower Part of the Duration Curve) indicates the part of the duration curve for which the
regional analysis has been performed. Code 10: Biferno at P. della Fiumara; Code 12: Bifemo
at P. Liscione; Code 13: Bifemo at Altopantano.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 209

duration curves are drawn with reference to the duration range between 15% and
100%.
Given the markedly limestone characteristics of the area under study, which
greatly affect the size of low flows, a variety of data was gathered. This information
concerns the topographic extent of the basin (S), the size of the limestone area inside
the basin not contributing to the outlet (A), the total size of the limestone area
contributing to the outlet (B) (limestone area inside the basin plus limestone area
outside the basin) and, lastly, the total limestone area inside the basin regardless of
whether or not it contributes to the basin outlet (APC). The data A, B and APC were
quantified on the basis of the map represented in Figure 3. These data are shown in
Table I. In addition, data were collected concerning mean monthly precipitation,
evapotranspiration and runoff quantities at the gauged sites.

3.4. LOWER PART OF THE DURATION CURVE AT THE GAUGED SITES

Equations (2a-b) are used in this study to describe the LPDC at the gauged sites.
In order to choose the type of equation, a site by site analysis was made of the
shape of the LPDC as well as the values of a number of quantities, such as the
relation between the contributory limestone area and the area of the basin. Two
groups were then defined (see Table I): Group 1 characterised by the Equation (2a)
and Group 2 characterised by the Equation (2b). This division reflects the spatial
distribution of the sites and the characteristics both of the relevant basins and of
the hydraulic behaviour observed in each of them. The hydraulic behaviour can
be highlighted through the analysis of Figure 6, where the mean monthly trends
(ratio between 12 mean monthly discharges and one twelfth of the mean annual
discharge) in the various gauged sites are shown. The Group 2 sites reveal a high
degree of seasonality, which is a sign of scant or nonexistent spring activity. On the
contrary, the sites in Group 1 show a more uniform seasonal behaviour as shown by
the considerable spring activity occurring inside the relevant basins. The sites with
Code 11,12,13 were assigned to Group 1 even though they reveal a higher degree
of seasonality than the other sites in the same Group. In fact, it should be noted
that the Bifemo at the Ponte della Fiumara site (Code lo), which lies upstream
of the three indicated above, shows considerable spring activity (duration curve
with notable downward concavity). This activity sustains the low runoffs in all the
downstream sites and, therefore, also in the three sites considered. In fact, though
the full duration curves of these sites reveal a depletion type form, the shape of
the lower part is still comparable to that observed at Ponte de1 Fiumara (Code 10)
(duration curves not shown here).
The least squares method was used to calculate the a, b and c coefficients
of the Equations (2a) and (2b) for all the gauged sites, according to step 1 of the
regionalization procedure described in the section 2.3. More specifically, for Group
1 the coefficients of the function which describes the LPDC were calculated by
Table I. Characteristic hydrogeological data of the basins relevant to the gauged sites and their groups E
0
Code Name of the site S B APC A H Gr. range of
[km21 ba [km*1 Fm*l b-4 duration

1 Saggittario at Villalago 108.0 23.5 83.0 66.0 1553.0 1 70-100

2 Saggittario at Cap0 Canale 599.0 355.5 493.4 195.2 1105.0 1 70-100
3 Sangro at Opi 130.0 0.0 89.9 89.5 1405.0 2 30-100
4 Zittola at Montenero 32.0 29.0 20.0 3.2 1080.0 2 30-100
5 Sangro at Ateleta 545.0 187.0 336.3 192.3 1320.0 2 30-100
6 Sangro at Villa S. Maria 762.0 243.0 410.0 217.9 1224.0 2 30-100
7 Aventino at Vicenne 201.0 134.2 92.2 18.5 1191.0 1 70-100
8 Verde at Viscardi 42.0 110.4 39.5 0.0 1800.0 1 70-100
9 Trigno at Pescolanciano 90.0 32.0 49.0 17.0 998.0 2 30-100
10 Bifemo at P. della Fiumara 27.0 106.0 16.0 0.0 870.0 1 70-100
11 Bifemo a Ripalimosani 593.0 144.0 149.0 54.0 747.0 1 70-100
12 Bifemo at P. Liscione 1043.0 144.0 207.0 112.6 645.0 1 70-100
13 Bifemo at Altopantano 1290.0 144.0 253.6 158.6 570.0 1 70-100
14 Cat-pin0 at Carpinone 72.0 29.0 66.0 37.0 850.0 1 70-100
15 Sava at Gallo 14.5 18.7 10.0 2.0 1250.0 2 30-100
16 Fibreno at Brocco 48.0 340.0 16.0 0.0 532.0 1 70-100

S = Topographic area; B = Total contributing limestone area (inside + outside the topographic basin); APC = Limestone
area inside the topographic basin; A = Limestone area inside the topographic basin not contributing to flow at the outlet;
H = Average altitude of the basin; Gr. = Group.
 Code 1 Gr.1 Code 2 Gr.1 Code 3 Gr.2 Code 4 Gr.2 Code 5 Or.2

3.

2-

1 -w
O- 0
I III v VII IX XI
o-I Ill v VII IX XI I III v vll IX XI z
2
Code 7 Gr.1 Code 8 Gr.1 Code 9 Gr.2 Code 10 Gr.1 Code 11 Gr.1

4
3- 3
2
27. 2 ?
1 !z
1 1-a.,. 7
0 O- 0
I Ill v VII IX XI I Ill v VII IX XI I III v VII IX XI

Code 12 Gr.1 Code 13 Gr.1 Code 14 Gr.1 Code 15 Gr.2 Code 16 Or.1

2 2
1 1
0 /!!!5sY 0 H
I Ill v WI IX XI I Ill v VII IX XI I Ill v VII IX Xl
N

Figure 6. Hydraulic behaviour at the gauged sites(ratio between 12 mean monthly dischargesand one twelfth of the mean annual discharge)and
indication of the Group to which each gauged site belongs.
212 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

making reference to a duration period of 70 to lOO%, while for Group 2 reference

was made to a duration period of 30 to 100%.

3.5. REGIONAL LAWS

In the previous section two distinct trends in duration curves were highlighted,
corresponding to different types of flow behaviour in periods of drought. In other
words, two different kinds of hydraulic behaviour are present inside the region, for
each of which a specific set of regional laws must be defined.
Referring to Group 1, three regional laws of the following kind were obtained
after several attempts:

QD~= cyk[Pex. (S - A)/lOOOJPk Dz,,,,, k = 1,2,3, (6)

where QD~ is the discharge of duration Dk, S is the area of topographic basin [km2],
A is the limestone area, inside the basin, not contributing to the outlet [km2],
Pex is the mean annual rainfall excess, i.e. depth of mean annual precipitation
minus depth of mean annual potential evapotranspiration [mm], Dk,, is the mean
flow in the month of minimum flow [m3/s] (Dmin is calculated by identifying the
minimum-mean-monthly-flow expressed as a depth, i.e., referred to the area S of
the topographic basin. This value is then transformed into a volume (minimum-
mean-monthly-flow x S)) and finally divided by the number of seconds relevant
to that month), and ok, &, yk are the coefficients to be calculated. Note that the
quantity [Pex . (S - A)/10001 clearly represents the mean annual volume flowing
through the basin outlet.
Then, the coefficients (uk, pk, yk have been calculated, by using the nonlinear
least square method (package STATGRAPHICTM), on the basis of the data collected
in Table I.
Proceeding in an identical way, three regional laws of the following type were
obtained for Group 2:

QD~= ak[Pex. (S - A)/lOOO]P (S + B - APC)Yk k = 1,2,3, (7)

where B is the total limestone area contributing to the outlet [km2], APC is the lime-
stone area present in the basin contributing to the outlet plus the non-contributory
limestone area also present in the basin [km2]. Note that (S + B - APC) rep-
resents the total area contributing to the outlet. The coefficients and ok, pk, yk in
Equation (7) are calculated in a similar way as for Equation (6).
The regional analysis procedure will now be as follows. With reference to a
generic ungauged site where nondirect discharge measurements are available, the
group to which it should belong is first defined. Then, using either Equation (6) or
(7), three pairs of values (Qlcr Dk) are defined on the basis of which the system of
Equations (4) or (5) can be solved in respect to the unknowns a, b and c. Once the
REGIONALANALYSISOFFLOWDURATIONCURVES 213

Figure 7. Location of the ungauged sitesconsideredfor the application of the regional procedure
(see Figure 4 for the legend).

coefficients a, b and c are known, the LPDC in that ungauged site will be defined
in full.

3.6. APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL LAWS

The procedure for applying the regional laws is not automatic and straightforward
because it embodies a relatively delicate point, namely the a priori definition of the
Group to which the ungauged site should belong. In order to perform this operation
in a reasonable way it is essential to have information on the nature of the soil,
on the percentage of limestone area in the basin, on the presence or absence of
springs, on the position of the ungauged site in relation to the gauged sites, on
the spatial distribution of the aquifers and on the directions of flow. Assuming the
rainfall characteristics to be identical, these factors heavily influence the behaviour
of watercourses in drought conditions.
The information needed was taken from the map shown in Figure 7 (see also
Figure 4) where the position of the ungauged sites and the watershed outlining
the relevant basins are indicated. Many basins draining to the ungauged sites have
characteristics similar to those of the gauged sites. For instance ungauged site Tl
214 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

relates to a basin with a limestone area which influences the runoff in the same way
as the gauged site at Opi (Sangro river, Code 3). Ungauged site VI can be compared
with the gauged site at Brocco (Fibreno river, Code 16) as the total limestone area
contributing to the groundwater discharge in the section is considerably larger than
the limestone surface outcropping within the basin. Finally most of the remaining
basins have different percentages of limestone areas contributing to or affecting the
final groundwater discharge (note in Figure 7 the watersheds outlining the basins
relative to the ungauged sites, the arrows describing the main flow direction in
the limestone acquifers and the estimated boundaries of the areas feeding a certain
site). In conclusion, by comparing Figure 7 with Figure 3, i.e., by comparing the
hydrogeological characteristics of the basins relevant to the ungauged sites with
those of the basins relevant to the gauged sites, it was possible to define the Groups
to which each ungauged sites belong, with some inevitable degree of subjectivity.
Then the data required for the application of the regional laws were collected for
each ungauged site (Table II). In particular, the evaluation of the quantities Pex and
Dfii, were performed on the basis of the regional analysis of the mean monthly
flows which was developed according to Ferraresi et al. (1988), while the data
relevant to the quantities A, B and APC where estimated on the basis of map
shown in Figure 7.
By applying the regional laws pertaining to each Group and solving the relevant
systems of three equations in respect to the three unknowns, the coefficients of the
functions describing the LPDC were obtained. Figure 8 shows the duration curves
estimated for some ungauged sites. It is worthwhile observing that the regional
Equations (6) and (7) produce duration curves at the ungauged sites which, con-
sidering the tree structure of the several tributaries, are physically consistent, i.e.,
moving from upstream to downstream, they respect the volumes of the low flow
periods. The comparison between the sites with code B4, B9 and B12 (ungauged
sites, Figure 8) and sites located nearby having Code 10, 12 and 13 (gauged sites,
Figure 5), respectively, can be considered a further test of the reliability of the
applied methodology.

3.7. DISCUSSION

Equations (6) and (7) represent the regional laws which allow the calculation of the
coefficients of the LPDCs (see Equations (4) and (5)), at each point in the region
under study. Equations (6) and (7) link the discharge values of assigned duration
QD~ to several quantities characterising the various basins, including (1) the mean
net annual volume flowing through the outlet section [Pex . (S - A)], (2) the mean
outflow in the month of minimum flow Di,, and (3) the total area contributing to the
outlet section (S + B - APC). This means that the discharge values QD~ are linked
to quantities with a clear-cut and specific physical significance. Specifically, they
are affected by the actual contributing area which in many cases differs considerably
from the topographic area; this underscores the importance of limestone formations
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES

Duration(%)
M

w -. CODE B9

Duration(%)

70 75 50 m 90 95 no

Duration(%)

Figure 8. Examples of LPDC in some ungauged sites obtained using the regional laws.
216 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO

Table II. Characteristic data of the basins relevant to the ungauged sites. The
evaluation of Pex and D,,, emerges from the regional analysis of the mean
flows performed on the basis of the methodology proposed by Ferraresi et
al. (1988)

Code Group S B APC A Pex Dm,,

[km21 [km] [km] [km*] [mm] [m3/s]

Tl 2 54.8 0.0 28.8 28.8 677.2 0.124

T2 2 112.8 59.2 52.3 21.6 657.4 0.793
T3 2 107.5 38.3 26.7 7.5 549.5 0.313
T5 1 699.0 162.1 127.7 12.5 477.7 2.400
T6 1 831.0 162.1 127.7 12.5 449.2 2.600
T8 1 1121.0 162.1 127.7 12.5 402.0 3.110
B2 2 73.1 17.8 25.6 12.8 821.6 0.617
B4 1 266.1 125.7 115.2 34.0 945.5 2.728
B5 2 21.8 0.0 10.1 10.1 1087.8 0.015
B6 2 98.2 0.0 35.8 35.8 854.9 0.215
B7 1 740.4 144.0 136.7 41.7 656.0 4.050
B9 1 1043.0 144.0 207.0 112.6 555.2 4.060
B12 1 1296.0 144.0 253.6 158.6 509.5 4.212
Vl 1 165.0 211.2 78.4 12.8 851.7 2.880
v2 1 226.1 211.2 121.1 55.5 843.4 3.797
v4 1 29.1 28.8 15.0 0.0 535.3 0.528
v5 1 72.3 29.0 66.0 37.0 596.5 0.799
V6 1 202.8 82.1 116.3 38.2 581.9 2.952
V8 1 842.1 448.4 426.1 102.1 706.7 6.153
v9 1 134.2 68.8 95.0 52.0 756.4 1.738
Snl 2 678.2 210.0 370.0 192.3 824.0 1.683

on the flow of the watercourses in this region. By contrast, the equations used to
express this link have a purely statistical value. Indeed, this situation is identical
to the one encountered in the application of the index discharge method where
the index discharge is usually linked by power laws to the area of the basin and to
other geo-morpho-climatic quantities.
Obviously, the type of equation and the quantities considered to express the link
given by Equations (3) may vary from one application to another. For example,
in an unpublished study of another area in Southern Italy where the presence of
limestone formations is not observed and the soil is of average-to-low permeability,
the regional laws identified take the classic form of powers while the quantities used
are Dk,, and the mean net annual rainfall volume (i.e. the annual rainfall volume
minus the mean annual potential evapotranspiration), calculated with reference to
the topographic area of the basins.
In the various applications of this procedure to real cases, it has always been
found necessary to define more than one equation to describe the LPDC. Conse-
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 217

quently, there has always been the problem of attribution to a generic ungauged site
of the equation representing the shape of the LPDC. Even though this operation
can be performed on the basis of various information as described above, it always
requires a certain measure of subjectivity. This is a sensitive aspect of the entire
procedure and demands the involvement of experts with a thorough qualitative-
quantitative knowledge of the characteristics of the flow in the various parts of the
region under study. It should, however, be made clear that this is the case with any
type of regional analysis, when different types of statistical behaviour are found in
the region selected.
Lastly, it is worth stressing that the mean flows regionalization procedure pro-
posed by Ferraresi et al. (1988) and used in this study does nof form an integral
part of the LPDC regionalization procedure. In fact this procedure has only been
used to calculate Pex and Dmin, which in turn are used in the regional laws 6 and
7. It is therefore clear (1) that that the mean flow analysis can be performed on
the basis of other methodologies without in this way affecting the structure of the
drought regionalization procedure and (2) that the mean flow analysis may not be
necessary if other geo-morpho-climatic quantities can be identified which furnish
a better statistical explanation of the behaviour of the discharges QD~.

4. Conclusions

Droughts may be studied through an analysis of the duration curve when the interest
basically concerns the quantification of the mean flow behaviour during periods
of low flow, regardless of their time sequence. In particular, when a watercourse
is characterised by a single period of low flows, such as the summer minimum
in Mediterranean fluvial behaviour, the part of the duration curve referring to
the droughts is almost entirely linked to the discharges of that period. As a
consequence, the average water availability during that period is simply calculated
by integration of the lower part of the duration curve.
The methodology described in this paper permits a regional analysis of the lower
part of the duration curve. It requires (1) the definition of an equation, characterised
by a set of parameters, describing the LPDC and (2) the identification of a suitable
number of regional laws enabling the parameters of the selected equation to be
calculated in any ungauged site. The regional laws are generally valid for Groups
of sites with similar LPDC. Calculation of the LPDC for any ungauged site will,
therefore, require the prior selection of the Group to which the ungauged site in
question is to refer. Once an ungauged site has been assigned to a Group, the
procedure is straightforward.
The case study discussed refers to a limestone region of the south of Italy.
It reveals that the most important geological information needed to perform the
regional analysis is the nature of the soil, the percentage of limestone area involving
the basin, the presence or absence of springs, the spatial distribution of the aquifers
and the directions of flow, while the most important hydrological information is
218 MARCOFRANCHINIAND MAUROSUPPO

the mean annual rainfall excessand the averageflow in the month of minimum
flow.

Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Prof. P.E. OConnell for his useful comments on an
initial draft of this paper.The authorsalso wish also to thank the two anonymous
reviewersfor their suggestions.

References
Box, G. E. P.and Jenkins,G. M.: 1976, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day,
SanFrancisco.
Celico, F.: 1983, Tech. Rep. Progetto specialen. 29, Schemi Idrici dellappennino Centro Merid-
ionale.
Eratakulan, S.J.: 1970,Probability distribution of annual droughts,Proc. Am. Sot. Civil Eng. 96(1R4).
Farmer, E. E. and Homeyer, Y. W.: 1974, The probability of consecutiverainlessdays, Water Resow
Bull. lO(5).
Feller, W.: 1968,An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol. 1, Wiley, New York.
Ferraresi,M., Todini, E. and Franchini, M.: 1988, Un metodo per la regionalizzazionedei deflussi
medi, Atti de1XXI Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, L Aquila.
Franchini, M., Ferraresi,M., Suppo, M. and Lojacono, F.: 1988, Analisi regionale dei deflussi nei
bacini dellofanto e de1 Fortore: la regionalizzazione delle portate al colmo e dei deflussi di
magra, Atti de1XXI Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, L Aquila.
Fugazza,M. and Moisello, Il.: 1978, Portatedi Magra de1Fiume PO,LEnergia Elettrica 55(7-8).
Guerrero, P. and Yevjevich, V.: 1975, Analysis of drought characteristicsby the theory of runs,
Hydrology Paper,No. 80, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado.
Gumbel, E. J.: StatisticalForecastof Droughts, 1963, Bull. Int. Assoc. SC. Hydrol. 8(l).
Moisello, U.: 1981, Distribuzioni di probabilita applicate allo studio delle magre, Atti de1 Corso
Eventi idrologici estremi: piene e siccita, Catania.
Salazar,P. G. and Yevjevich, V.: 1975, Analysis of drought characteristicsby the theory of runs,
Hydrological PaperNo. 80, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO.
Sen,Z.: 1980a, The numerical calculation of extreme wet and dry periods in hydrologic time series,
Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 21(2), 135-142.
Sen,Z.: 1980b, Critical drought analysisof periodic stochasticprocesses,J. Hydrol. 46,251-263.
Sen,Z.: 198Oc,Statisticalanalysisof hydrologic critical droughts, J. Hydraul. Div., ASCE 106 (HY l),
99-105.
Sen,Z.: 1990, Critical drought analysisby secondorder Markov chain, J. Hydrol. 120, 183-202.
Takeuchi, K.: 1983, Autocorrelation strucutre of monthly precipitation seriesdetected by drought
duration curve differences,J. Hydrosci., Hydraul. Eng. l(l), 97-107.
Takeuchi, K.: 1984, Drought characteristicsof daily streamflow seriesdetected by drought duration
curve differences, Paper presented at the 4th IAHR Int. Symp. StochasticHydraulic, Urbana-
Champaign, Ill.
Takeuchi, K.: 1986, Chance-constrainedmodel for real time reservoiroperation using drought dura-
tion curve, Water Resow Res. 22(4), 551-558.
Takeushi, L.: 1990, Hydrological persistencecharateristicsof flood and droughts - Interregional
comparisons,J. Hydrol. 102,49-67.
Terstriep,M. L., Demissie,M., Noel, D. C. and Knapp, H. V.: 1982, Hydrologic design of impunding
reservoirsin Illinois, Illinois StateWater Surv.
Yevjevich, V.: 1967, An objective approachto definitions and investigationsof continental hydrologic
droughts, Hydrology PaperNo. 23 Colorado StateUniversity, Fort Collins, CO.
Yevjevich, V.: 1981, Method of Determination of Point and Regional Drought Characteristics,Atti
de1Corso Eventi idrologici estremi: piene e siccita, Catania.