Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: CSIS 7th
International Conference
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 13, 2017

Email interview with Ha Giang Vu, Nguoi Viet Daily News:

Q1. Why do you think that you were not invited to the event [7th international
conference on the South China Sea hosted by the Center for Strategic and
Internationsl Studies, Washington, D.C.]?
ANSWER: I was told by one of the CSIS organizers in April, I just want to give you a
heads up that we are hosting our annual SCS conference on July 18. We are being
urged by our funders not to include speakers who spoke last year, and as a result we
will not be extending an invitation to you this year. In a later email the CSIS informed
me that the DAV did not mention my name specifically but wanted diversity and said
the speakers from the previous year would not be invited. CSIS apparently accepted
this. I am a bit disappointed because I felt I was virtually unique among the presenters
as I had spoken on a variety of topics both for CSIS and the DAV (see attachment). The
main funder for the CSIS annual South China Sea conference is the Diplomatic
Academy of Vietnam (DAV) and the Foundation for East Sea Studies, a NGO
registered in Vietnam. A year earlier (2016) I was not invited to the eighth annual
South China Sea conference hosted by the DAV. I enquired why and it was only when
I met the organizer face to face was I told that when the series began the DAV
promised not to keep inviting the same people back year after year. I had spoken to
the first seven conferences.
Some friends in the Foreign Ministry were upset and took up my case. I received
conflicting explanations. One was a vague that no Australians were to be invited or I
wasnt to be invited as an Australian. Another explanation was that I had upset
someone in the hierarchy for unspecified reasons. I assumed it may have been my
address to the annual congress of the Vietnamese Community in Australia where I
spoke at their invitation on the South China Sea and Human Rights in Vietnam. I linked
these issues to the Obama Administrations policies.
There is, of course, a fourth explanation, I was widely critical of China and therefore
in Vietnams pocket so the DAV could turn to some other scholar to join their circle.
Q2. What do you think about the fact that Ha Noi pays for these events as explained
by the Greg Rushford report published on July 11, 2017?
 2

ANSWER: Vietnam, like most other countries, promotes its interests by trying to shape
the agenda in a way that is favorable to its interests. The piper pays the tune. China
has certainly funded conferences on the South China Sea to do so. The issue Greg
Rushford raises is why CSIS is so coy about not revealing the financial details of what
the DAV contributes and how this might affect the selection of speakers. It is widely
known that the DAV protested last year when CSIS initially included the Chinese
Ambassador to Washington. The Ambassador was removed from the formal program
but spoke immediately after the conference ended. Rushford also raises the question
of the affiliation of CSIS staff to consultancies operating in Vietnam, such as the Bower
Group. This raises a possible conflict of interest between pecuniary gain and going
silent on human rights issues.
Q3. I attended one of the South China Sea Conferences, I think four years ago, and
thought you had a very valuable presentation. What can be gained from not inviting
you to the conference this year, from Ha Noi's perspectives
ANSWER: As you can see from the attachments of my conference papers delivered
since 2010 and my publications on the South China Sea that I have been broadly
engaged on a variety of fronts on many topics. I have obliged the DAV by undertaking
new research to address side topics (see table attached). I have very good access to
ASEAN and other government sources. I am up to date on developments such as
General Fan Changlongs abrupt departure from Hanoi and cancellation of the fourth
friendly border defense activities with Vietnam in late May. The CSIS program does
contain a number of new speakers that perhaps the DAV hopes to influence. From
another perspective, the DAV has the door wide open to select speakers and topics to
suit Vietnams interests. I dont know what Vietnam gains but I have lost confidence
in both the CSIS ( a view I have already expressed to them when I was first dropped
from their program) and DAV
All is not lost, this year I have addressed international conferences related to the South
China Sea in Sydney and Manila. I will be speaking later this year in Russia, Austria and
the Czech Republic.
Follow up email with additional question:
Q4. Do you happen to recall the remarks about human rights in Vietnam during your
speech referenced below?
10. South China Sea Issues and Human Rights in Vietnam, Presentation to the 23rd
National
Conference of the Vietnamese Community in Australia, Dapto Ribbonwood Centre,
Dapto, New South Wales, June 11, 2016.
If so, would you please send me the main points?
ANSWER: Immediately after I send you this email I will send my presentation to the
VCA (Vietnamese Community in Australia). It is a Power Point presentation at 9 MB. If
you do not receive this let me know and I will extract the slides in part 2 on human
rights.
Some more background: Once I learned that I wasnt invited to the DAVs 2016
conference on the South China Sea I accepted an invitation to speak to a conference
 3

at Columbia University in New York on US-China relations. I spoke on Vietnam-US-

China relations.
[Sensitive information deleted about interventions on my behalf] The DAV
eventually responded by inviting me to chair a session. I declined saying I wasnt going
to travel all the way to Vietnam just to chair a session. Then the DAV got back inviting
me to speak to the last session of the conference. As this session included high ranking
military officers (retired) and was focused on technical issues at sea I declined.
Because I had already accepted the invitation to Columbia University I would have had
to fly from New York to Vietnam to attend the DAV conference. This would have meant
rewriting my air ticket and pay for the cost.
My point being there was obviously some division of views in Hanoi about my
attendance at the DAV conference. That fact that there was a later follow up only
indicates that the DAV responded [to these pressures].
[I then dispatched the Power Point slides used in my presentation to the VCA and I
also sent just the slides related to human rights in Vietnam]
 4

Carlyle A. Thayer
Papers presented to South China Sea Conferences organized by the
Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam (DAV) and the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington,
2009-2016

# Year Title of Papers Presented to the Diplomatic Academy of

Vietnam
1 2009 Recent Developments in the South China Sea Implications for
Peace, Stability and Cooperation in the Region
2 2010 Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for
Regional Peace and Prosperity
3 2011 Will the Guidelines to Implement the DOC Lessen Tensions in the
South China Sea? An Assessment of Developments Before and
After Their Adoption
4 2012 Chinas Naval Modernization and U.S. Strategic Rebalancing:
Implications for Stability in the South China Sea
5 2013 South China Sea Developments in 2013: ASEAN Unity Restored,
Sino-Philippine Tensions and ASEAN-China Consultations on a
Code of Conduct
6 2014 Fishing Fleets and Other Maritime Commercial and Scientific
Activities
7 2015 The Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and Beyond: Foolish
Consistency or Holy Grail?
8 2016 Not invited

# Year Title of Papers Presented to the Center for Strategic and

International Studies
1 2011 Chinas New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China
Sea
2 2012 From Aggressive Assertiveness to All Quiet on the East Sea Front:
The South China Sea as an Issue in China-Vietnam Relations
3 2013 South China Sea in Regional Politics: Indonesias Efforts to Forge
ASEAN Unity on a Code of Conduct
4 2014 Vietnams Maritime Forces
5 2015 Not invited
6 2016 Military Modernization and Capacity Building in the Philippines
and Vietnam
7 2017 Not invited
 5

Thayer khng c CSIS mi din

thuyt?
July 13, 2017

GS Carl Thayer trong mt Hi Ngh Bin ng do CSIS t chc

Hoa Thnh n. (Hnh: FB Carl Thayer).
H Giang/Ngi Vit

Vi nhng ai quan tm n tranh chp Bin ng, Hi Ngh Bin

ng c Trung Tm Nghin Cu Chin Lc v Quc T (Center
for Strategic and International Studies CSIS) t chc hng nm
ti Hoa Thnh n l mt s kin quan trng.

Mt tun trc ngy khai mc Hi Ngh Bin ng ca CSIS nm

nay, c t chc vo ngy 18 thng By, gio s Carl Thayer, mt
din gi thng xuyn c mt ti hi ngh, post ln trang Facebook
ca mnh tm hnh chp hi ngh nm 2016. i km hnh l dng
ch thch thong cht ngm ngi:
 6

Hnh ny chp lc ti ni chuyn ti bui Hi Tho Bin ng

CSIS ti Hoa Thnh n. Ti khng c mi nm nay bi Hc Vin
Ngoi Giao Vit Nam, nh ti tr ca h, khng mun mi nhng
din gi tng ni chuyn cc hi ngh trc y v cn phi c s
a dng. Nm ngoi ti cng khng c mi n cuc hi ngh
Bin ng Nha Trang do Hc Vin Ngoi Giao Vit Nam t chc
vi l do vin dn l v nhu cu tng t. S d ti dng ch vin
dn l v c nhng l do tri ngc nhau gii thch vic ti
khng c mi.

Khng c mi din thuyt

Tr li phng vn ca nht bo Ngi Vit, gio s Carl Thayer
(chuyn gia nghin cu v Chu v Bin ng, t nm 2010 n
nay c hn 85 bi din thuyt khp ni trn th gii v ti
tranh chp Bin ng), cho bit mt s thn hu ca ng ti B
Ngoi Giao Vit Nam khng hi lng v vic ng khng c mi
tham d hi ngh, t vn , v c cung cp nhng li gii
thch khc nhau. ng k:

H a ra mt l do m h l nm nay khng mi ngi c no c,

hay ti s khng c mi vi t cch mt ngi c [GS Carl
Thayer l ngi M sinh sng c NV]. Cng c gii thch l ti
lm pht lng mt gii chc cao cp v mt l do no khng r.
Ti on c l l v bi din vn ca ti v Vn Bin ng v
Nhn Quyn ti Vit Nam trong bui hi tho ca Cng ng Ngi
Vit ti c, vo thng Su nm 2016. D nhin cng c thm l do
na l v ti ph phn Trung Quc rt nng n, v nh th, c
xem nh l phe nh ca Vit Nam ri, nn h mun dnh tin
mi thm nhng hc gi khc vo qu o ca h.

Gi thuyt ca gio s Carl Thayer l ng khng c H Ni (phe

nm hu bao ban t chc Hi Ngh Bin ng ca CSIS) mi din
thuyt v ti m ng rt am tng, ch v ng chm n vn
nhn quyn ca Vit Nam, c l cht no khng?

C t nht l mt ngi ng vi suy ngh ny ca ng, rng nh

cm quyn H Ni khng thch vn vi phm nhn quyn ca h
b nhc n.
 7

Bn tay du kn ca H Ni
K gi Greg Rushford, mt phng vin iu tra k cu vng Hoa
Thnh n, trong bn tng trnh How Hanois Hidden Hand Helps
Shape a Think Tanks Agenda in Washington (Bn tay du kn ca
H Ni nh hng n ngh trnh ca mt vin nghin cu Hoa
Thnh n nh th no?), ph bin ngy 11 thng By, 2016, a
ra nhn xt ca ng v s thiu minh bch ca CSIS v ngun ti
tr ca t chc cng nh s xung t quyn li n t ngun ti
tr.

M u bn tng trnh, k gi Rushford vit: Th Ba ngy 18

thng By ti y l mt ngy trng i ca Trung Tm Nghin Cu
Chin Lc v Quc T (Center for Strategic and International
Studies CSIS), mt trong nhng vin nghin cu uy tn hng u
ca Hoa Thnh n trong hn na th k qua. Hi ngh hng nm
ln th by v Bin ng ca CSIS, nh ln u tin nm 2011, s
li mt ln na lu d lun v thi hung hng ca Trung Quc
Bin ng.

Cc din gi tng c c quan an ninh quc gia ca Hoa K chng

nhn l l lch n, s c vi n t Singapore, Vit Nam,
Philippines v cc ni khc Chu . H s st cnh vi cc chuyn
gia hng u ca Hoa K, t nhng t chc uy tn nh Trng Cao
ng Hi Qun Hoa K v Trung Tm Nghin Cu Chin Tranh Hi
Qun. Thng ngh s Cory Gardner, mt ng vin ng Cng Ha
t Colorado, ngi iu phi nhm tho lun v Chu ca y ban
i ngoi, s khai mc hi ngh bng bi din vn v Tip ni vai
tr lnh o ca Hoa K Chu Thi Bnh Dng'.

ng nu vn : Vy ai l ngi rng ri ti tr cho cc cuc

hi ngh nhm khuyn khch tm quan trng ca vic tip tc vai
tr lnh o ca M chu?

V ng tit l: Ch tch kim tng gim c ca CSIS, ng John

Hamre, trnh n cu hi ny trong sut su nm qua. Chng
hn, vo thng By nm ngoi, CSIS cng b rng Hi Tho Bin
ng k th Su c thc hin vi s h tr chung cho CSIS.
Cng b ny khng ch qu m h chng ni r c iu g, m
 8

cn l mt s bp mo s tht mt cch trng trn, theo mt

ngun tin mun c gi kn. chng minh iu mnh ni, ngun
tin ny cung cp cho ti [Greg Rushford NV] ti liu mt ca
ni b CSIS, cho bit chnh xc tin n t u.

K gi Greg Rushford khng nh: Nhng bn ghi nh, email v

nhiu ti liu khc cho thy tng gim c CSIS, ng John Hamre
c mt thin thn b mt H Ni. V thin thn ny c ting
ni quan trng trong vic ai c mi v ai khng c mi n
tham d cc hi ngh hng hi hng nm ca CSIS. Nh ho tm b
mt ca CSIS l mt n v ca B Ngoi Giao Vit Nam. Theo
trang web chnh thc, n v ny c tn l Hc Vin Ngoi Giao Vit
Nam, lm vic trc tip vi B Trng Ngoi Giao Phm Bnh Minh
v ng Cng Sn Vit Nam. Phm Bnh Minh, hin l Ph th
tng Vit Nam, l thnh vin cao cp ca ng, nm chc b
trng ngoi giao t nm 2011.

K gi Greg Rushford cho bit K t nm 2012, chnh ph Vit

Nam tng cho CSIS hn $450,000 M kim t chc cc hi
ngh Bin ng hng nm. Tng Gim c John Hamre nht quyt
t chi tr li nhng cu hi lin quan n vic ny, c lin tc
gi n.

Khng nhng v lnh o cao cp nht ca CSIS khng tr li bo

ch, trong c t New York Times, v ngun ti tr, m website
ca CSIS, vn theo ng Greg Rushford, cng rt m h v im
ny. u trn website ca CSIS ghi rng Hc Vin Ngoi Giao
Vit Nam (the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam DAV) c tng cho
CSIS trn $5,000 nhng di $99,000 la, nhng khng h gii
thch Hc Vin Ngoi Giao Vit Nam chnh l mt n v ca B
Ngoi Giao Vit Nam, m cng khng gii thch l mn tin c
tng s c dng vo vic g.

Ngoi vic CSIS khng ni r ngun tin ti tr, phng s iu tra

ca Greg Rushford cn vch ra l c mt s xung t quyn li khi
ng Murray Hiebert, mt c vn ti cao ca CSIS tng lm n Vit
Nam.
 9

Xung t quyn li hay sai lm o c?

n c mt th d v xung t quyn li, phng vin Greg Rushford
vit: Vo nm 2015, ng Murray Hiebert tng b ch trch v ng
nht nh t chi khng a ra nhng phn tch c tnh cch ch
trch vic n p nhn quyn ca Vit Nam. ng Hiebert cng tng
ra lnh cho nhn vin an ninh li mt nh u tranh i nhn quyn
cho Vit Nam ngi M gc Vit ra khi khun vin ca CSIS, sau
khi b gii chc ca H Ni p lc phi lm nh th.

Trong phn cui phng s iu tra kh di, k gi Greg Rushford

vit: c gi s t rt ra kt lun v nhng g H Ni t c
khi ti tr cho CSIS. Trong nhng nm c cp trong bi vit
ny, chng trnh ngh s v Vit Nam Hoa Thnh n c nhng
phn chnh. H Ni mun to ra mt bu khng kh trao i kin
thc y quan h ngoi giao v an ninh cht ch hn vi Hoa K.
Cc nh phn tch ca CSIS cng mun iu . H Ni mun Tng
thng Barack Obama ti thm Vit Nam, gip quan h i bn
tht cht thm, CSIS cng ng h chuyn i . H Ni mun
Washington d b lnh cm bn v kh nguy him cho ch cng
sn. Cc nh phn tch ca CSIS cng chia s quan im y. V Vit
Nam mun c s h tr ca M i vi hp ng thng mi Quan
h i tc xuyn Thi Bnh Dng. CSIS cng c v iu . D
nhin lnh o ca CSIS c th lp lun rng vic thc y mt
quan h cht ch hn gia M v Vit Nam cng l iu hp l.

Vn nm ch, Greg Rushford vch ra: Nhng trn tt c mi

th khc, nh cm quyn Vit Nam mun gii tr thc u t c th
nh hng n chnh sch i ngoi Hoa Thnh n ngonh mt l
i cc v vi phm nhn quyn H Ni. ng Cng Sn hiu rng
s sng cn ca n ph thuc vo vic tip tc n p nhng ngi
bt ng chnh kin n ha. V nh ti tng trnh trc y v
cch H Ni mua nh hng v chuyn i Vit Nam lch s ca Tng
Thng Obama, nhng lnh o ca CSIS cn thn khng lm
pht lng gii chc cao cp H Ni, khi c nhng cu hi v tnh
hnh t nhn chnh tr ti Vit Nam.

T chi khng ln ting trc vic nhng cng dn can m Vit

Nam b bt giam ch v thc hin quyn t do ngn lun, mt quyn
 10

t do ph qut ca con ngi, chc chn l mt sai lm o c,

ng Rushford kt lun.

Trc tnh trng CSIS, vin nghin cu uy tn hng u nc M b

vch ra l nhn tin lm ng v vn vi phm nhn quyn
ti Vit Nam, m gio s Carl Thayer li ngang nhin din thuyt v
iu ny, th gi thuyt v th m ng khng c mi din thuyt
nm nay l iu c th tin c.

Tr li cu hi cm tng ca mnh trc vic khng c mi n

tham d hi ngh v mt ti ng rt am tng, Gio S Carl
Thayer pht biu: Ti khng r Vit Nam s c g, nhng ti th
mt nim tin vo c CSIS ln Hc Vin Ngoi Giao Vit Nam.

Tin bc r rng mua c nhiu th. Trong trng hp ny, n

mua c s im lng trc nhng iu m con ngi bnh thng
no cng thy bt nhn.

Lin lc tc gi: hagiang@nguoi-viet.co

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: CSIS 7th International
Conference, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 13, 2017. All background
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