TO:

Interested Parties
FROM: Guy Cecil, Chairman, Priorities USA
Global Strategy Group & Garin Hart Yang
DATE: March 9, 2017
RE: New research among presidential year voters

Priorities USA has commissioned Global Strategy Group and Garin Hart Yang to conduct regular tracking
polling throughout this year to monitor the Trump presidency and give the progressive community a
window into how the electorate is reacting to political events as they unfold. Our polling will be among
presidential year voters those who voted in either 2012 or 2016 to assess what is happening with
those who participate in presidential elections. This is the first in that series.

Our research indicates that despite net negative favorability and job approval ratings, President Trumps
support is holding among his base and voters continue to view him favorably on economic issues. But
Trump has a clear vulnerability on the economy, because voters question whether he is truly on their
side. Moving forward, progressives should drive home the message that Trump is looking out for the
wealthy and selling out regular people in order to win on the economy. In particular, Trumps support
for tax cuts for the wealthy and the specifics of the Republican health care plan provide a key
opportunity to push that message.

Key findings from our initial survey are as follows:

President Trumps ratings are net negative, but his base is keeping him afloat.
Trumps ratings remain historically poor for a Presidential honeymoon period, with net
negative favorability and job approval ratings. Among a presidential year voter population that
is slightly more politically favorable to Republicans than many public polls of all adults, Trumps
personal favorability (42% favorable/47% unfavorable) and job approval (45% approve/46%
disapprove) are net negative.
But Trump is buoyed by his Republican base who remain overwhelmingly behind him. Few
Republicans express discontent with the President Trumps favorability with Republicans (82%
favorable/7% unfavorable) and conservative Republicans (88% favorable/5% unfavorable) is
strong.
Key swing constituencies like independents and moderate voters are skeptical of the
President. Trumps favorability with Independents (34% favorable/45% unfavorable) and
moderates (31% favorable/53% unfavorable) is mixed, though not overwhelmingly negative
and Democrats must continue to drive negative ratings with these constituencies.
The key fault lines of the presidential election remain in play. White non-college voters remain
supportive of Trump (58% favorable/32% unfavorable), while college-educated white voters
give him poor ratings (35% favorable/57% unfavorable).


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Voters are hearing good news about Trump on the economy, while they perceive real
weaknesses across other areas, especially Russia, leadership, and integrity.
Voters are giving Trump credit on the economy the one area where they have recently
heard more positive news than negative news. Voters are hearing favorable things about
Trumps economic policies (42% favorable/32% unfavorable; +10 net positive), the only issue or
trait where Trump is currently receiving positive ratings. Recent public polls also confirm this,
showing Trump getting better job ratings on the economy than other issues.
Trumps personal traits remain a key weakness, including his temperament and personal
character. Voters are hearing negative things about Trumps temperament and leadership
style (-14 net negative) and personal character and integrity (-13 net negative). On both
these items, his ratings are particularly weak with Independents (-18 on temperament and -23
on character).
Russia is an overwhelming negative for Trump with a majority of voters hearing unfavorable
things. Just one in five voters (21%) report hearing favorable things about Trumps dealings with
Russia, while 51% report hearing unfavorable things. As a result, in both our poll and in the
recent Quinnipiac poll, 60%+ voters support an Independent commission into the links between
the Trump administration and the Russian government.

TRUMPS RECENT PERFORMANCE ON POLICIES & TRAITS

Thinking about just the past few weeks, has your reaction to what you have
heard RECENTLY about Donald Trumps been favorable or unfavorable or
have you not heard anything recently about Donald Trump in that regard?
Fav Unfav NET
Fav-Unfav

Economic policies 42% 32% +10

Immigration policies 41 47 -6
Temperament and leadership style 36 50 -14
Personal character and integrity 35 48 -13
Foreign policies and dealings with other countries 34 46 -12
Health care policies 32 36 -4
Dealings with Russia and Vladimir Putin 21 51 -30

Trump is vulnerable on the economy because voters believe he looks out for the interests of
the wealthy and corporations, and progressives must leverage that to show how his
economic policies are failing regular people.
Voters hold contradictory views on the economy they see Trump doing better there than on
other issues, but they also believe he is looking out for the wealthy and big corporations.
Despite giving Trump more positive marks on the economy than other issues, voters, by a large
margin, believe that Trump is looking out for the wealthy and big corporations (50%) over
looking out for the interests of regular people (25%). This criticism holds water even among
white non-college voters, who remain some of Trumps strongest supporters (35% looks out for
the wealthy/30% looks out for regular people).

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Progressives must prioritize connecting the dots between Trumps economic policies and the
impact they have on regular people. The top-testing criticism of Trump in our poll is that he
supports giving a big tax cut to millionaires and big corporations, and will shift more of the tax
burden to the middle class raising major doubts among a majority (53%) of voters and
outperforming criticisms on other issues.
Progressives should lean into this economic narrative moving forward, which represents a
real opportunity to illustrate how President Trump continues to break his campaign promises
to put regular people first. The looming fight on taxes represents one opportunity to push this
narrative as does the current battle over the ACA and the Republican health care bill.
Progressives should continue to make economic arguments on health care focusing on how
the GOP bill will cost seniors more but include new tax breaks for millionaires and CEOs.

ABOUT THIS POLL

Global Strategy Group and Garin Hart Yang conducted a national survey among 769 presidential year
voters for Priorities USA from March 3-7, 2017. The results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%, and care
has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the electorate are properly
represented based on past voter turnout statistics.