The Digital Disruption: Connectivity and the Diffusion of Power

Author(s): Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen

Source: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 6, The World Ahead (November/December 2010), pp.
75-85
Published by: Council on Foreign Relations
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 The Digital Disruption
Connectivity and the Difiusion of Power

Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen

The advent and power of connection governments. New intermediaries make it

technologies?tools that connect people possible to develop and distribute content
to vast amounts of information and to across old boundaries, lowering barriers
one another?will make the twenty-first to entry. Whereas the traditional press is
century all about surprises. Governments called the fourth estate, this space might
will be caught off-guard when large num be called the "interconnected estate"?a
bers of their citizens, armed with virtually place where any person with access to the
nothing but cell phones, take part in mini Internet, regardless of living standard or
rebellions that challenge their authority. nationality, is given a voice and the power
For the media, reporting will increasingly to effect change.
become a collaborative enterprise between For the worlds most powerful states,
traditional news organizations and the the rise of the interconnected estate will
quickly growing number of citizen journal create new opportunities for growth and
ists. And technology companies will find development, as well as huge challenges
themselves outsmarted by their competition to established ways of governing. Con
and surprised by consumers who have nection technologies will carve out spaces
little loyalty and no patience. for democracy as well as autocracy and
Today, more than 50 percent of the empower individuals for both good and
world s population has access to some ill. States will vie to control the impact
combination of cell phones (five billion of technologies on their political and
users) and the Internet (two billion). These economic power.
people communicate within and across Some countries, primarily major
borders, forming virtual communities that connected powers such as the United
empower citizens at the expense of States, eu member states, and the Asian

Eric Schmidt is Chair and CEO of Google. He is a Member of the Pres

ident s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology and Chair of the New
America Foundation. Ja red Cohen is Director of Google Ideas. He is an
Adjunct Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Children
of Jihad and One Hundred Days of Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide.

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 Eric Schmidt and Tared Cohen

economic powerhouses (led by China Those alliances will have to go far be

and to a lesser extent India) will manage yond government-to-government contacts,
to regulate the interconnected estate to embrace civic society, nonprofit organi
within their own borders in ways that zations, and the private sector. Democratic
strengthen their respective values. But not states must recognize that their citizens'
all states will be able to control or embrace use of technology may be a more effective
the empowerment of the individual. vehicle to promote the values of freedom,
Connection technologies will add to the equality, and human rights globally than
strains of less developed societies?forcing government-led initiatives. The hardware
them to become more open and account and software created by private companies
able while also giving governments new in free markets are proving more useful
tools to constrain opposition and become to citizens abroad than state-sponsored
more closed and repressive. There will be assistance or diplomacy.
a constant struggle between those striving Although it is true that governments
to promote what U.S. Secretary of State and the private sector will continue to wield
Hillary Clinton has called "the freedom to the most power, any attempts to tackle the
connect" and those who view that freedom political and economic challenges posed
as inimical to their political survival. by connection technologies will fail with
Dealing with this dilemma will pose out the deep involvement of the other
particular challenges for democratic na rising powers in this space?namely,
tions that share common principles of nongovernmental organizations and
openness and freedom. Their ideals will activists. The real action in the inter
clash with well-founded concerns about connected estate can be found in cramped
national security. In order to avoid yield offices in Cairo, the living rooms of
ing the advantage to countries such as private homes throughout Latin America,
China, which seek to extend their values and on the streets of Tehran. From
of control and censorship, countries such these locations and others, activists and
as the United States and the eu member technology geeks are rallying political
states will have to hold tightly to freedom "flash mobs" that shake repressive
and openness. governments, building new tools to skirt
Democratic governments will most firewalls and censors, reporting and
likely be tempted to further their national tweeting the new online journalism, and
interests through the same combination writing a bill of human rights for the In
of defense, diplomacy, and development on ternet age. Taken one by one, these efforts
which they relied during the Cold War and maybe seen as impractical or insignificant,
the decades after. But these traditional tools but together they constitute a meaning

will not be enough: although it remains ful change in the democratic process.
uncertain exactly how the spread of tech
THE REVOLUTION WILL BE PODCAST
nology will change governance, it is clear
that old solutions will not work in this new The idea of technology empowering
era. Governments will have to build citizens for good or for ill is not a new
new alliances that reflect the rise in citizen phenomenon, nor is there a lack of
power and the changing nature of the state. precedents of governments dealing with

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 The Digital Disruption
how to react to this phenomenon. The where government officials seeking unvar
arrival of the printing press in the fifteenth nished news of the world beyond their
century is an interesting case in point. borders use so-called proxy servers and cir
Although Johannes Gutenbergs inven cumvention technology to access their own
tion was truly revolutionary, its promise Facebook or e-mail accounts?platforms
of increased access to information was their governments regularly block.
limited by those who owned the presses The Iranian Revolution of 1979 illus
and decided what to publish and where it trates the shift from broadcast media
could be distributed. Repressive govern to another set of communications tools.
ments or other institutions, moreover, had To be sure, huge social forces were at
the power to use the printing press as a work in Iran in the 1970s, including un
tool for control (by generating propa happiness with the shahs corrupt and
ganda) or oppression (by outlawing anti repressive regime and pressure from
government or antichurch writings). the international community. But many
In the twentieth century, with the historians believe that one of the keys to
advent of radio and television, nations? the revolution was the ability of Ayatollah
and those wealthy or powerful enough Ruhollah Khomeini to spread his message
to gain access to the airwaves?could using a simple device: the cassette tape.
control and even dictate much of what Using an extensive network, Khomeini
was heard and seen. Radio and television distributed tapes of his speeches to more
proved to be powerful propaganda tools than 9,000 mosques. As Time magazine
for states that knew what to do with them. wrote, the "78-year-old holy man camped

North Korea?where people can only in a Paris suburb [and] direct[ed] a revo
watch state-sponsored channels?is a lution 2,600 miles away like a company
modern-day version of what was common commander assaulting a hill."
in Eastern Europe before the fall of the The U.S. government was wary of the
Berlin Wall. Even when unlicensed radio power of the cassette tape in Iran, both
emerged in the first half of the Cold War, because this new technology was too
and satellite television began to spread difficult to control and because Wash
during the second half, few people had ingtons eyes were fixed on the Soviet bloc
the hardware, knowledge, or expertise to and the cassette tape s possible use as a tool
develop their own programs, let alone for spreading communist propaganda.
to secure a broadcast studio or airtime. In not using this technology, the United
Despite these limits, many people chose States missed out on a powerful oppor
to watch and listen to information broad tunity to promote its values and policies
cast through independent sources, which and empower lesser-known democratic
had previously been unavailable to the leaders. By the mid-1970s, cassette man
masses. These listeners and viewers included ufacturers had broken into emerging

many who worked in governments?often markets, and suddenly what had begun
putting themselves at significant risk of as a new entertainment device had be
getting caught, losing their livelihood, or come an effective communications tool.
worse. A similar phenomenon is occur In the decade that followed, technology
ring today in places such as Iran and Syria, helped achieve another significant step

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 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen
in reducing the power of intermediaries is already changing politics in some of the
and in short-circuiting regimes bent on worlds most unlikely places. In Colombia
silencing opposition voices. Activists in 2008, an unemployed engineer named
and human rights campaigners in the Oscar Morales used Facebook and the free
Soviet Union and Eastern Europe used Internet-based telephone service Skype
photocopiers and fax machines to spread to orchestrate a massive demonstration
their own messages and foment unrest. against the Revolutionary Armed Forces
The technology of today holds even more of Colombia. He was able to muster the
promise: comparing the uncertain dial largest protest against a terrorist group in
tone of the fax machine with the speed of history and the sort of high-profile blow
today s handheld devices is like comparing to militants that no Colombian president
a ships compass to the power of global has been able to achieve in the past 40 years.
positioning systems. In Moldova in 2009, young people,
frustrated and angry over a collapsing
ECLIPSE OF THE INTERMEDIARIES
economy and fraying society, gathered
Today, people are far more likely to com in the streets of Chisinau after a rigged
plain about having to sort through too election. They used messages on Twitter
much information than to have none at all. to turn a small protest of 15,000 people
Perhaps the most revolutionary aspect of into a global event. As international and
this change lies in the wealth of platforms internal pressure continued to rise, the
that allow individuals to consume, distrib rigged election was overturned, and a new
ute, and create their own content without election brought to power the first non
government control. communist government in Moldova in
This does not mean that intermediaries more than 50 years. And in Iran last year,
have suddenly become irrelevant, of YouTube videos, Twitter updates, and
course. Companies that provide access to Facebook groups made it possible for ac
the Internet or software applications are tivists and citizens to spread information
critical for exchanging information, and that directly challenged the results of the
governments or state-owned companies country's flawed presidential election.
retain the power to block access. But this Yet for all the inspiring stories and
power is diminishing, because not even moments of hope abetted by the use of
governments can stop, control, or spy on connection technologies, the potential
all sources of information all the time. of such technologies to be manipulated
Meanwhile, the involvement of diaspora or used in dangerous ways should not be
communities in bringing change to their underestimated. The world s most repres
homelands has vastly increased, creating sive regimes and violent transnational
new sources of financial support and groups?from al Qaeda and the Mexican
international pressure. And an entire drug cartels to the Mafia and the Taliban?
cottage industry has emerged with the are effectively using technology to bring
goal of finding and creating holes in on new recruits, terrify local populations,
porous firewalls. and threaten democratic institutions.
The combination of these new tech The Mexican drug cartels, in order to
nologies and the desire for greater freedom illustrate the consequences of opposition,

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 REUTERS

Customers at an Internet caf? in Taiyuany Chinay June 2009

spread graphic videos showing decapi nato forces first launched military
tations of those who cooperate with operations there in 2001, cell-phone
law enforcement, and al Qaeda and access its in Afghanistan has grown from
zero to 30 percent. This growth has
affiliates have created viral videos showing
the killings of foreigners held hostage had clear positive effects: mobile-based
in Iraq. programs enable women to run call
The same encryption technologies used centers from their cell phones, provide
by dissidents and activists to hide their access to remote medical diagnoses,
private communications and personal and give farmers real-time information
data from the state are used by would-be on commodity prices. And the 97 per
terrorists and criminals. As relatively cent of Afghans who do not have bank
inexpensive encryption technology con accounts can save and access money
tinues to proliferate on the commercial with their cell phones through mobile
market, there is little doubt that autocrats money transfers. The salaries for 2,500
and hackers will make use of it, too. Find Afghan National Police officers in Wardak
ing the balance between protecting Province are transmitted through this
dissidents and enabling criminals will technology, which allows them to then
be difficult at best. transfer money to their families using
Afghanistans telecommunications text messaging.
networks provide a useful case study in At the same time, the Taliban have
how connection technologies can both become increasingly savvy about using
help and harm a nation. Since U.S. and mobile technology to malicious and

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 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen
deadly effect. Taliban militants have State authority in the same way. Much
used cell phones to coordinate attacks, remains uncertain, of course, but it seems
threaten local populations, and hold clear that free-market and democratic
local businesses hostage, either by blow governments will be the best suited to
ing up cell towers or by forcing them manage and cope with this maelstrom.
to power down between 6 pm and 8 am, The greatest danger to the Internet
the period when Taliban militants carry among these countries?perhaps best
out evening operations. In February 2009, defined as the members of the Organi
Taliban inmates in Kabuls Policharki zation for Economic Cooperation and
prison used cell phones to orchestrate a Development?will be the Overregulation
number of coordinated attacks on Afghan of the technology sector, which has thus
government ministries. In Afghanistan?far thrived on entrepreneurial investment
and Iraq, too?it is not uncommon for and open networks.
insurgents to use cell phones to detonate Perhaps no country has more carefully
roadside bombs remotely. considered the implications of allowing
its citizens access to connection technolo
CATS AND MICE
gies than China. The regimes goals are
Realists describe international rela clear: to control access to content on
tions as anarchic and dominated by the Internet and to use technology to
self-interested states. Although there build its political and economic power.
is little doubt about the dominant role Beijing has arrested online activists
states will and should play in the world, and used the country's thriving online
there is a great deal of debate about exactly bulletin boards to spread its propaganda.
how dominant they will be going forward. All of this is part of a strategy to ensure
In these pages in 2008, Richard Haass, that the technology revolution extends,
the president of the Council on Foreign rather than destroys, the one-party state
Relations, described a "nonpolar world" and its value system. Around the world,
that is "dominated not by one or two or the Chinese model of Internet control has
even several states but rather by dozens been copied by nations such as Vietnam
of actors possessing and exercising various and actively promoted in Asian and
kinds of power." In the interconnected African countries where China is invest
estate, a virtual space that is constrained ing heavily in natural resources. And
by different national laws but not national Beijing has moved to co-opt international
boundaries, there can be no equivalent to institutions, such as the International
the Treaty of Westphalia?the 1648 agree Telecommunications Union, in order
ment that ended the Thirty Years' War to gain global credibility and rally allies
and established the modern system of behind its efforts to control its citizens'
nation-states. Instead, governments, indi communication.
viduals, nongovernmental organizations, But thanks to the work of activists and
and private companies will balance one nongovernmental organizations operating
another's interests. inside and outside China, Beijing has
Not all governments will manage the learned that its attempts to establish total
turbulence left in the wake of declining control of the Internet will not always

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 The Digital Disruption
work. The regime has recently been ner. This internal dispute in Turkey raises
caught off-guard by the use of cell phones, the question about whether countries
blogs, and uploaded videos to encourage can continue to protect their version of
labor protests and report on industrial historical events in the age of the inter
accidents, environmental problems, and connected estate.
incidents of corruption. The July 2009 International observers should also
demonstrations by ethnic Uighurs in keep their eyes on a small group of
Xinjiang drew international media atten hyperconnected states?Finland, Israel,
tion even after Beijing completely shut and Sweden, among others?that have
down all Internet connections in the relatively strong central governments,
region; Uighur activists used social stable economies, and vibrant technology
networks and so-called microblogs to and innovation sectors. These nations
spread news among targeted audiences have already demonstrated their ability to
abroad, including the Uighur diaspora. embrace technology and the good sense
These kinds of cat-and-mouse games to invest in broadband and research. Their
will no doubt continue, but in the short governments, research and development
run there is doubt that Beijing's attempts budgets represent an exceptionally high
to control access to information will percentage of gdp. States that invest in
largely succeed. research and infrastructure stand to benefit
The intersection of connection tech down the road.
nologies and state power is also playing
RIDING THE TSUNAMI
out in the other bric nations: Brazil,
India, and Russia. In each of these states, States in the developing world?grouped
the willingness to welcome new tech here as "partially connected" nations?
nology in the service of economic growth face a different set of opportunities and
has generally prevailed over fears about challenges in incorporating connection
technologies. The stakes are especially
how the Internet can be used by criminals,
terrorists, or political troublemakers? high for those with weak or failed central
but not always. Last spring, for example,governments, underdeveloped economies,
populations that are disproportionately
Alexei Dymovsky, a police officer in south
ern Russia, was arrested after he posted young and unemployed, and cultures that
a tell-all video on YouTube exposing lend themselves to opposition and dissent,
corruption in Russia's police force. and also for those contending with outside
The acceptance, or lack thereof, of pressures from large and engaged diasporas
connection technologies can also vary living in technologically advanced nations.
within the governments of democracies. The sudden influx of connection tech
Turkey is a case in point. The country's nologies into these societies will threaten
judiciary has blocked YouTube, but the the status quo, leaving fragile governments
president has spoken out against the in potentially unstable positions.
ban. The court ruling was prompted by On the bright side, the spread of
a series of blogs and videos that depicted technology in partially connected nations
the founder of the Turkish state, Kemal such as Egypt is breaking down traditional
Atat?rk, in a potentially offensive man barriers of age, gender, and socioeconomic

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 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen
Status. Most of this is due to the rise of those that struggle to maintain their
cell phones, which have the potential to political legitimacy. Anything that ques
create the twenty-first-century equivalent tions the status quo, the party in power,
of last century's green revolution, a move or the fa?ade of stability poses a threat.
ment that used advanced agricultural For such governments?including the
technologies and processes to increase autocratic, the corrupt, and the unstable?
food yields worldwide. In Pakistan, for the potential of quick and unexpected
example, there were only 300,000 cell mini-rebellions is particularly worrisome.
phone users in 2000; in August 2010, In many cases, the only thing holding the
that number was closer to 100 million. opposition back is the lack of organiza
Such dramatic changes in connectivity tional and communications tools, which
are having an impact on the ground. In connection technologies threaten to pro
Kenya, for example, a company called vide cheaply and widely.
Safaricom has developed a program to Over the last several years, regimes
transfer money using cell phones, which that carried out ham-handed crack
has lowered the transaction costs for downs have grown more subtle and
remittances, expanded access to bank sophisticated. The actions of the Iranian
accounts for underserved populations, government surrounding the country's
and streamlined the microfinance process. 2009 elections are a case in point. In the
In some partially connected coun weeks leading up to the vote, Tehran
tries, such as C?te d'Ivoire, Guinea, sporadically blocked certain Web sites,
Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan, connection prevented access to text messaging, and
technologies are shifting, albeit slowly, slowed down Internet connection speeds.
the nature of civil society. A growing On the day of the election itself, the
number of activists work anonymously regime turned off all forms of digital
and part time; Web sites are replacing connectivity and kept them down for
physical offices, with followers and mem days and even weeks (although a number
bers instead of paid staff; and local groups of activists were able to use proxy and
use free, open-source platforms instead circumvention technology to get around
of having to rely on foreign donors. At the stoppage). Members of the country's
the same time, homegrown companies Revolutionary Guards posed as virtual
are filling gaps left by governments, activists and tried to catch online dissenters

offering language and job-skills train in the act. What is perhaps most ominous,
ing, financial services, health care, and Iranian communications officials?
the pricing of commodities. Today s employing anonymous engineers and
activists are local and yet highly global: addresses?created Web sites encouraging
they import tools from abroad for their people to post pictures of the protests.
own purposes while exporting their They then used the sites to identify, track,
own ideas. and, in some cases, detain protesters.
As technology continues to spread, Whether or not partially connected
many governments in partially connected countries follow the Iranian example
societies are seeing more costs than may depend on the balance between
benefits. This is particularly true for internal political stability and the need

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 The Digital Disruption
for economic growth. Those nations faced that is, states that are, in principle, open
with the task of restarting or maintaining to the import and use of connection
stagnant or slowly growing economies technologies but whose governments
are more likely to allow their citizens and might periodically introduce restrictive
businesses to adopt new technologies controls, whether fueled by a paranoid
and to maintain the free flow of informa elite class, bureaucratic corruption, per
tion that is vital to foreign investment. ceived security threats, or other factors.
These countries, which are found across
TECHNOLOGY, ON THE EDGE Africa, Central America, and Southeast
A second and equally large group of Asia, are potential agricultural exporters
developing countries are the "connecting and havens for light industry. For the
nations"?places where technological ruling governments in these states, one
development is still nascent and where imagines that the drive to create sustain
both governments and citizens are testing able, diverse, and more open economies
out tools and their potential impact. In will often take precedence over fears
these states, connection technologies are that opponents armed with cell phones
not yet sufficiently prevalent to present will threaten the regime s survival.
major opportunities or challenges. Al Finally, there is a small but globally
though these states will invariably rise significant group of nations?the so-called
into the ranks of the partially connected, failed states?that are characterized by
it is too early to determine what this chaos and an inability to act consistendy
will mean for the relationship among even on the most important issues. Such
citizens, their governments, and neigh states are natural havens for criminal
boring nations. groups and terrorist networks that may
Some of these states, such as Cuba, have local grievances but harbor regional
Myanmar (also called Burma), and Yemen, and global ambitions. Somalia is one
have tried to wall off access to certain notable example of this dynamic. Although
technologies entirely. For example, they much of the activity of the country's
* have confined access to cell phones to the rebels and insurgents is directed at targets
elite; this, however, has led to a commu within Somalias borders, some offer
nications black market, which is most often international terror networks, arms
used for daily communication but har traffickers, and drug lords undisturbed
bors the capacity to foment opposition. territory for recruiting followers or
Activists in these states and in their di spreading their ideology. Although con
asporas?such as those working along nection technologies can serve as creative
Myanmar s border with Thailand?try outlets for citizen innovation in such
daily to break the information block countries, they also offer the opportunity
ade. In the short term, the regimes that to export terrorist and criminal behavior.
govern these nations will do their best
TEAR DOWN THIS WALL
to maintain monopolies on the tools
of communication. Efforts by democratic governments to
An even larger group of these connect foster freedom and opportunity will be
ing states can be called "open by default"?far stronger if they recognize the vital

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 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen
role technology can play in enabling to expose wrongdoing do not strengthen
their citizens to promote these values? governments apt to make nationalistic
and that technology is overwhelmingly appeals; working behind the scenes when
provided by the private sector. that route will produce better, faster results;
Companies whose products or services and using the technology that the private
revolve around information technology? sector creates for their own ends. A Web
be they producers of cell-phone handsets, site called Herdict, for example, collects
manufacturers of routers that are the data on blocked sites in real time, creat
building blocks of firewalls, or providers ing a public log of disruptions to the free
of Internet platforms?deal in a com flow of online information and enabling
modity that is inherently political. In an unprecedented level of user-generated
the interactive world of Web 2.0, the transparency.
prime mission of some of the technology For both companies and the non
sectors fastest-growing corporations is profit sector, the interconnected estate
to provide cross-border connections. Lit provides a place where they can join
tle wonder that the old-guard officials together in new alliances to multiply
who dominate repressive regimes see their impact. One example is the Global
these companies as little more than the Network Initiative, an organization that
arms dealers of the information age. brings together information technology
That said, although the United States companies, human rights groups, socially
and other countries can publicly warn responsible investors, and academics in
Chinese officials to abide by international an effort to promote free expression
human rights agreements, companies online and protect privacy. (Google is
can actually act?by publicizing how one of the founding corporate members.)
governments around the world censor Gni has issued specific guidelines for
content or simply cut off their citizens companies and other groups forced to
from the world. Cell-phone companies confront governments that censor content
play a particularly important role in this or ask for information about users. Under
effort, because in many parts of the world this arrangement, companies agree to let
the cell phone is one of the few resources outside assessors determine their compli
local populations can use to stand up ance with the guidelines and all members
to abuses. agree to promote common goals.
The nonprofit sector and individual
COALITIONS OF THE CONNECTED
activists around the globe also face new
opportunities. In the interconnected Continuous innovation?and the increas
estate, they will continue to shape govern ing population of the interconnected
ment and corporate behavior by promoting estate?will pose new, difficult challenges
freedom of expression and by protecting for people and governments the world
citizens from threatening governments. over. Even the best-informed and most
But at times, they will have to adjust active users of technology will find
their tactics to reflect the new environ themselves caught in a blur of new de
ment in which they operate. This means, vices and services. In an era when the
among other things, ensuring that efforts power of the individual and the group

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grows daily, those governments that
ride the technological wave will clearly CHANGING THE

WORLD
be best positioned to assert their influence
and bring others into their orbits. And
those that do not will find themselves
at odds with their citizens.
Democratic states that have built coali
tions of their militaries have the capacity
to do the same with their connection
technologies. This is not to suggest that
connection technologies are going to
transform the world alone. But they offer
a new way to exercise the duty to protect
citizens around the world who are abused
by their governments or barred from
voicing their opinions.
Faced with these opportunities, dem
ocratic governments have an obligation
to join together while also respecting the
power of the private and nonprofit sectors
to bring about change. They must listen
to those on the frontlines and recognize
that their citizens' use of technology can be
an effective vehicle to promote the values
of freedom, equality, and human rights
globally. In a new age of shared power,
no one can make progress alone.?

INTRODUCING THE 2009-2010

HOPKINS SOMMER SCHOLARS

JOHNS HOPKINS
BLOOMBERG
SCHOOL of PUBLIC HEALTH

WWW.JHSPH.EDU/SOMMERSCHOLARS

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