Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Is Duterte Playing
Both Sides Against the Middle?

Carlyle A. Thayer
August 10,2017

We request your assessment of President Rodrigo Duterte of the philippines.

Specificlly: What does Duterte's back and forth with the US and China mean? He
lambasts the US, then sweet-talks Secretary Rex Tillerson, he hints at oil exploration
in the South China Sea, then throws his support behind Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP). ls he a shrewd politician playing both sides?
ANSWER: President Duterte harbors a deep suspicion if not animosity towards the
United States going back to his time as mayor of Davao. He is a populist politician with
little grounding in foreign affairs, Atfirst his actions made some sense such as putting
aside the ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal to encourage better ties with China. He won
pledges of massive investment and he ended the estrangement between Manila and
Beijing that emerged during the Aquino Administration.
Duterte reveled at cutting the U.S. down to size, curtailing U.S. military activities on
Philippine soil and firing off verbal barrages at President Obama and any American
official who criticized his anti-drug crusade and its extra judicial killings. The U.S. kept
its calm so Duterte lost his punching bag.
The advent of the Trump Administration changed the dynamics. The value of the U.S.
alliance as a point of leverage for Duterte was diminished by strategic uncertainty. you
can only play two sides off against each other if both stay in the game. What president
Trump will do is anybody's guess.
Duterte also faced a push back by elements of the military who grew increasingly
concerned about china continuous militarization in the spratlys.
The Philippines needs energy security and this means exploiting hydrocarbon
resources in Reed Bank as hydrocarbon resources begining to dwindle in the
Malampaya field. China pressed for joint development but this is likely illegal under
the Philippine Constitution.
Duterte ingratiating remarks to Secretary Tillerson represent an attempt to restore
some balance in relations with China and, in particular, restore more room for
maneuver.
The Philippines was not a party to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) although there
was some expression of interest towards the end of the Aquino Administration. There
is talk by the other eleven signatories of reviving the TPP minus the U.S. RCEp was
 2

ASEAN's baby so as ASEAN Chair Duterte supported it. lt is a very watered-down

arrangement when compared to the TPP.
Duterte is still finding his feet in terms of foreign policy. He hasn't learned that
shooting from the mouth does not always have an immediate effect. The prolonged
conflict in Marawi increases the salience of U.S. counter-terrorism support. Duterte is
more cunning than shrewd; it is unlikely that he has a well thought out strategy in
mind and is just playing it by ear.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Philippines: ls Duterte Playing Both Sides

Against the Middle?" Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , August 10, 2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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