Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea & Baltic Sea:
What Do They Have in
Common?

CarIyIe A. Thayer

July 22,2017
[client name deleted]
we am preparing a report on the joint china-Russia military
drills that will be held in
the Baltic sea next week. We request your assessment
of the foilowing:
Q1- china is sending some of its more developed and
advanced military equipment to
these drills with Russia. what is the message behind
this movement?
ANSWER: china has made no secret that it is
in the process of developing a modern
navy for deployment to the far seas, the People's
Liberation Army Navy has regularly
deployed to the Gulf of Aden and its has visited
the Baltic sea in recent year. china
lacks blue water experience so lengthy overseas
deployments build up experience
based on lessons learned.

ln the case of the Russian Navy in the Baltic,

china has the unparalleled opportunity
to operate with a modern navy and test itself through joint
military exercises. china is
signaling that its navy is coming of age by showcaring
, Type 052D air warfare
destroyer. china is arso signaling that it can cooperate
with Russia.
Russia and china have held joint naval exercises
in the East china sea. An arrangement
of convenience is emerging - joint patrols to support
each other in separate maritime
zones, first the East china sea and now the Bartic
sea.
Russia is sending its own message to NATo that
despite western sanctions it too has
apartner and can operate in NATo's backyard.
Given public statements by France and
the United Kingdom about deployments to the south china
sea, china is subtly
counter-punching by its current deproyment to the
Bartic sea.
Q2- The sino-Russian drills will be held, for the first
time, in the Baltic sea, very nearby
Poland and Lithuania. could these exercises
be seen as a provocation for the NAT6
alliance?
ANSWER: Joint Russia-china naval exercises
in the Baltic sea for the first time is a tit
for tat response to NATo's build up in the three Baltic
states since 2016 and especially
eastern Poland this year' Russian aircraft have been
engaged in provocative flights
near NATO aircraft over the Baltic this year as well.
 2

Q3.- Some countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia or Ukraine are worried about
the Russian influence and expansionism in their territories. Do these military drills add
more tension in the region?
ANSWER: Undoubtedly, because Russian annexation of Crimea and its military
intervention in the Ukraine hang heavily over the leaders of the Ukraine, Poland and
the Baltic states. The tensions are generated not only by the proximity of Russian
forces but their unpredictability through provocative encounters with NATO aircraft.
NATO, the Baltic states and Ukraine have to measure their response in order not to
cause a miscalculation or escalation.

ln addition, this week Vladimir Putin just signed off on a new military doctrine to
challenge U.S. naval supremacy in the next decade. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia can
expected increased Russian naval activities in the Baltic Sea in future.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "South China Sea & Baltic Sea: What Do They
Have in Common?," Thoyer Consultancy Bockgiound Brief , luly 22, 20L7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.