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COMPETITION
Amit Rander
Lokesh Bahety
DMS, IIT Delhi
Industry Landscape (Computer and Peripherals)
OVERVIEW GLOBAL COMPUTER AND PERIPHERALS MARKET
Computers and peripherals market has grown at a CAGR of $bn
5.5% from 2005 to record $218.5bn in 2010 230 CAGR: 5.5% 218.5
China is all set to outpace USA in the next couple of years 220
with a high population using computers and a CAGR of 11.7% 210 210.2
in the last five years as against 3.6% achieved by the US 200 197.4 194.3
Emerging economies like India and Brazil set to be major 190 179.5
players with 5 year CAGRs of 16.6% and 21.2% respectively 180
167.1
The top five companies in this sector in US are Hewlett- 170
Packard, Dell, Apple, Acer and Canon while those in China are 160
Logitech (China), Microsoft (China), Dongguan Zhongyu 150
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Electronics, Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard Asia
0.0 0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
With the developed world struggling, the Emerging Economies are set to take Center-stage as evident from the sales forecast
Source: Euromonitor International
Note: Computers and Peripherals include desktops, portable computers, laptops, netbooks, tablets, monitors, printers and otherperipherals
2
Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi
Industry Landscape (Smart Phones)
OVERVIEW GLOBAL MOBILE PHONE SALES
For quarter ending March 11, smartphone sales accounted for $bn
SHIFTING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (SHIPMENTS:MM UNITS) SMARTPHONE SALES FORECAST (MM UNITS)
Smart phone market is poised to see some major upheavals as Wireless mobile access will continue to impact all aspects
of consumer behaviour and high-speed connectivity becomes a requirement of both business and personal use
Feature phones category is expected to continue to decline over the forecast period, as OS-based smartphones become
the industry standard
Source: Euromonitor International
3
Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi
The Acquirer: Plexonix
OVERVIEW CHALLENGES
PC, mobile & digital music player manufacturer Under-penetration in emerging market . Seeks foray
Sells software, 3rd party digital content and in Chinese and Indian markets
applications Mired by patent infringement
Online and retail stores (300). Online reach of more Dependence on third party IP and digital content
than 25 countries
Target customers: retail , small & mid-sized Looking at geographical leaders in design and distribution
businesses
Market cap of $300 billion
P Desktop &
Laptop Revenue break up by geography
O
R Music America
Software player
T Aggressive 13% 27% EMEA
F price wars 20%
O Changing 15% 25% Japan
L Smart technology
Hardware Asia Pacific
I phone
Decreasing Online Retail
O brand
Tablet
loyalty
FINANCIAL METRICS (IN $ BILLION EXCEPT EPS) Revenue break-up by product segment
'000
10% 70 14,000
Korea
60 12,000
15% 50 10,000
44% Japan 40 8,000
30 6,000
North America 20 4,000
10 2,000
31% 0 0
Other Asia
1/4/2010
3/4/2010
5/4/2010
7/4/2010
9/4/2010
1/4/2011
3/4/2011
5/4/2011
7/4/2011
9/4/2011
11/4/2009
11/4/2010
11/4/2011
Total revenue: $394 mn
Millions
600 4,500
24% Taiwan 4,000
32% 500 3,500
South Korea 3,000
400
Japan 2,500
300 2,000
8% China 200 1,500
1,000
Others 100 500
11% 13% 0 0
1/2/2009
3/2/2009
5/2/2009
7/2/2009
9/2/2009
1/2/2010
3/2/2010
5/2/2010
7/2/2010
9/2/2010
1/2/2011
3/2/2011
5/2/2011
7/2/2011
9/2/2011
11/2/2009
11/2/2010
11/2/2011
12%
Millions
6 25
7%
23% 5
Ringtone 20
23% 4
Ringback tone 15
3
IVR Music 10
2
Other 1 5
47%
0 1/4/2010 0
3/4/2010
5/4/2010
7/4/2010
9/4/2010
1/4/2011
3/4/2011
5/4/2011
7/4/2011
9/4/2011
11/4/2009
11/4/2010
11/4/2011
Total revenue: $100 mn
Millions
18 70
16
24% 14
60
12 50
Service
10 40
Technology 8 30
12%
64% 6
Hardware 20
4
2 10
0 1/4/2010 0
3/4/2010
5/4/2010
7/4/2010
9/4/2010
1/4/2011
3/4/2011
5/4/2011
7/4/2011
9/4/2011
11/4/2009
11/4/2010
11/4/2011
Total revenue: $238 mn
R&D
IDCC continues high quality invention
200.00
79.8%
68.4%
150.00 45.2%
24.6%
19.0%
100.00
(10.2%)
(32.7%)
50.00 (53.0%)
(63.1%)
0.00
I
Diversified Financial and
Large chunk of revenues from licensing Technology Wireless IP-Focused
Leaders Companies Entities
Patent acquisitions changing landscape
Large corporate consortiums hunting patents
OTHER ACQUISITIONS
8th April, 2011: Novell
Provides network operating system, system management solutions and collaboration solutions
Acquired by a software holding company, The Attachment Group for $2.2bn
882 patents to be sold to CTPN holdings (a consortium of Microsoft, EMC, Apple and Oracle)
STRONG POSITION IN LTE GIVES IDCC THE EDGE OVER OTHER COMPETITORS
Significantly bigger opportunity in LTE as more devices available (tablets, e-readers, etc.)
Source: IDCC Investor Presentation
Note: UMTS and E-UMTS stand for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System and Evolved Universal Mobile Telecommunications System, respectively.
Some patents and applications have been declared to ETSI by InterDigital for both UMTS and E-UMTS and therefore are included in both the UMTS and the E-UMTS data above.
The data above has been adjusted to reflect withdrawals of, and corrections made to, declarations of patents and applicationsasof October 27, 2010. 12
Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi
Financial Considerations
CAPITAL STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
500 The company has cash and cash equivalents worth
$409.7mn as of September 30, 2011. In addition, it also had
$280.9mn in short term investments
The senior convertible notes ($190.6mn) which were issued
8.7%
0 in April 2011 would mature in March 2016
Total = $2,191mn Licensing Contracts give rise to a predictable revenue
stream and hence the cash flows to accrue in future years
Note: Net Margins represent net income applicable to common shareholders divided by revenues
13
Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi
Brokers are bullish on IDCC
INDUSTRY BROKER RECOMMENDATION*
Market Cap/ TARGET PRICE
Company P/E EV/EBITDA
Sales
60% Mean 64.6
Mosaid 21.5 9.7 5.0
Median 66
Acacia Research 26.1 16.1 5.5 50% High 118
Tessera Technologies 22.4 21.7 NA Low 26
40%
Qualcomm 15.5 10.4 5.1
Rambus NM NA 6.2 30% Brokers
Dolby 11.0 5.4 3.4
30.5 17.4 4.0
20%
MIPS
ARM Holdings 53.3 47.2 17.6 10%
Average (all companies) 25.7 18.3 6.7
IDCC FY1 24.8 13.2 6.8 0%
IDCC FY2 14.9 8.5 5.0
Buy Hold Sell
ANALYST COMMENTARY
M Partners, Nov 9, 2011: We reiterate our BUY recommendation and our takeout share price target of $118.0 The outlook for IDCCs patent is
positive as the report goes on to say, Essential patent royalties are long lasting, consistent and guaranteed revenue streams that can benefit a
patent holder in one of two ways for many years. First it can be used to offset patent assertion made by competitors. Secondly, FRAND royalties
can be used to bleed Competitors of gross margin, while at the same time enriching earnings.
Barclays Capital Equity Research, 27 Oct, 2011: We believe that the companys asymmetric licensing model supported by its rigorous internal
R&D processes is well positioned to capitalize on the mass adoption of 3G devices, the transition to 4G and the broader adoption of wireless
technologies by Non-traditional devices. It has been given a stock rating of overweight which implies the stock is expected to outperform the
un-weighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12 month investment horizon.
14
Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi
IDCC Valuation Discounted Cash Flow analysis
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Free Cash Flow
EBIT 127 208 237 270 304 392 431 474 512 553
Tax on EBIT (39) (65) (75) (86) (97) (129) (142) (157) (169) (183)
Profit After Tax 88 142 162 184 207 263 289 318 343 371
Discounting Model
Year Count 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
PV of FCF (22) 68 103 103 91 127 134 119 110 132
Terminal Value 4,584.92
NPV 3,236
Intrinsic Value 71.12
Low High With $10.2bn of cash and cash equivalents and another
$13.1bn in short-term marketable securities, the deal
Share Price 62.3 70.4 should be an All-Cash deal with Plexonix buying out the
entire stake
Market Value 2,791.4 3,154.0 the projected share price represents a premium of 9% -
Enterprise Value 2,625.4 2,988.0 23% to the average price of Interdigital over the last 3
months
P/E 21.0 23.8 The premium reflects the inherent value of the
EV/EBITDA 11.3 12.9 patents of IDCC. The premium also reflects the tug of
war between various technology companies for
acquiring IPR assets
Source: Company reports, Capitaline
Note: The P/E and EV/EBITDA are forward multiples. They represent the FY12 ie December12 multiples
16
(#) DMS, IIT Delhi
Past patent transactions render IDCC still undervalued
RECENT TRANSACTIONS IN THE IPR DOMAIN IN NORTH AMERICA
Nortel Apple, Microsoft, RIM, Sony, EMC, Ericcson July, 2011 4,500 6,000 750,000
Source: Company filings for the respective transaction, Equity Research for the Demand Scenario
Note: The acquisition price range is the mean Enterprise value calculated using DCF method keeping Beta at 0.85 and 0.95 and terminal growth rate at 1.00% and 1.25% respectively
1TCurrent EV is as of 08/11/2011
17
(#) DMS, IIT Delhi
Other Key Considerations
TOP INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS IDCC TOP MANAGEMENT
Institutional Holding Shares % Outstanding Value ($mn) Name Age Designation
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 2,275,769 5.00 93.0
Vanguard Group, Inc. 2,210,001 4.86 102.9 Steven Clontz 60 Chairman of the Board
The Roosevelt Investment Group, Inc. 1,396,491 3.07 57.1
William Merritt 52 President & CEO
State Street Global Advisors (US) 968,269 2.13 45.1
Opus Capital Management, Inc. 692,835 1.52 32.3 Scott McQuilkin 56 Chief Financial Officer
Emerald Advisers, Inc. 666,476 1.46 31.0 James Nolan 50 EVP - Research and Development
C.S. McKee, L.P. 638,700 1.40 26.1
EVP - Intellectual Property & Chief IP
Cardinal Capital Management, L.L.C. 626,098 1.38 25.6
Lawrence Shay 52 Counsel; President of InterDigital
Mellon Capital Management Corporation 515,623 1.13 24.0
Wells Capital Management Inc. 503,902 1.11 20.6 Patent Holding Sub
Hussman Econometrics Advisors, Inc. 500,000 1.10 23.3 Richard Brezski 38 VP, Chief Accounting Officer, Controller
JP Morgan Asset Management 460,430 1.01 18.8 VP, Strategic Engineering, Chief
Naresh Soni 52
Managed Account Advisors LLC 439,733 0.97 18.0 Technology Officer
Wentworth, Hauser & Violich, Inc. 436,860 0.96 17.9 Gary Isaacs 51 Chief Administrative Officer
Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP 417,114 0.92 17.0
Top 15 shareholders 12,748,301 28.02 552.59 Steven (Steve) Sprecher 55 General Counsel, Secretary
RISK FACTORS
Challenges related to the companys ability to enter into new license agreements could cause the revenue and cash flow to
decline
Revenue may be impacted by the deployment of 4G or other technologies in place of 2g and 3g technologies or by the need to
extend or modify certain existing license agreements to cover additional later patents
Royalty rates could decrease for future license agreements
Revenues are derived primarily from a limited number of customers.
Delays in renewing or an inability to renew existing license agreements and challenges in defending and enforcing patent rights
could cause the revenue and cash flow to decline
The wireless IPR industry is subject to rapid technological change, uncertainty and shifting market opportunities.
The technologies created by the company may not be adopted by the market or widely deployed
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Amit Rander, Lokesh Bahety DMS, IIT Delhi