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Simple mean Uses an average of past data Good for level pattern Requires carrying a lot of
as a forecast data
Simple A forecasting method in which Only good for level Important to select the proper
moving only n of the most recent pattern moving average
average observations are averaged
Weighted A forecasting method where n Good for level pattern; Selection of weights requires
moving of the most recent observations allows placing different good judgment
average may have different weights weights on past
demands
Choice of alpha is critical
Exponential A weighted average procedure Provides excellent
smoothing with weights declining forecast results for
exponentially as data become short-to medium-length
older forecasts.
Trend-adjusted An exponential smoothing Provides good results Should only be used for data
exponential model with separate equations for trend data with trend
smoothing for forecasting the level and
trend
Linear trend Technique uses the least- Easy to use and Data should display a clear
line squares method to fit a straight understand trend over time
line to past data over time
Seasonal Computes the percentage Simple and logical Make sure seasonality is
indexes amount by which data for each procedure for actually present
season are above or below the computing seasonality.
mean.
Causal (Associative) Models
Linear Uses the least-squares Easy to understand; Make sure a linear
regression method to model a linear provides good forecast relationship is present
relationship between two accuracy
variables.
Multiple Similar to linear regression, but A powerful tool in Significantly increases data
regression models the relationship of forecasting when and computational
multiple variables with the multiple variables are requirements
variable being forecast. being considered.