EARTHQUAKE HAZARD POTENTIAL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH BENGAL BASIN D.R.Nandy + Indian Journal of Earth Sciences Vol. 21, No. 2, p. 59-68. 1994EARTHQUAKE HAZARD POTENTIALOF CENTRAL AND SOUTH BENGAL BASIN DR.NANDY GC 78, Salt Lake, Caleuta 700 091 ABSTRACT [No par ofthe ward including central sd south Bengal can be taken at tty sf fern ‘anus, To sign my robbs value of exrhguake bxzard, ooops, gemrpholog- ‘al and netectoic staficesaplemental by eleven gophysiea audir are the prreiies Detailed geatesmologial dies provide ony for « onglerm probabilistic eatunkehrzar scams, which do nx enable toe ir prion, having narow Kime space widow and necessary agri elaiiy, to become scily wef. Human memory being vey short and ‘ese perio naar azar ike earthquake being very lng socey very oflen i condened {Sovetoak the lesan of demstation i story. ‘The Bengal busin is cecpied by tice alluvium undeain by Creaceous and Tenlary formations and fringed tothe west by Archaean basement, The basin is taversed by many sulbstefece aus nd Encaments, sme of whch might be seismogenic in nature a evidenced in the south prt ofthe basin ving. coincidence wih eanhuake hypocenucs. Tus the rea calls fo detailed geophyialnctoding microscemic), googie. actctni ne palscossienc i ies for meaningful sonic hazard ssesmen ofthe regio, flung he cy of Caleta INTRODUCTION From the viewpoint of earthquake hazard po- ‘over, require) assessment of seismic history of the region, (i) geological, geomorphological and neotctonic studies, supplemented by gravity- ‘eodal the most conspicuous part of Bengal basin 4 Caleuta iis, therefore, only natural 10 ake“Is CCalcuta safe from eanthquake?". This question ‘appeared in many local dailies after the devasta- tion caused by KillariEanhquake of 30h Septemn- ber, 1993. The answer i no; but a he same time it must also be mentioned that m9 place on the car's surface can be considered totaly sa fom earthquakes. In the global distribution patter of ceanhquake epicennes (fig. 1), it wll be een that ‘most of ther occur along pate margins, specially along the Pacific girdle. But intaplate tectonic earthquakes are by no means uncom, Viewed in terms of seismic history ofthe shield region, ‘specially in its easter par, a propability valac can be assigned tothe seismic bazar potential of (Caleuta. Detemnination ofthis value would how ‘magnetic surveys and palaeo- seismic sues for ‘densification of seismogeni faults and (ii) moni- ‘oring such faults with Ue Help of tlemeted seis. mic network. Inthe absence of necessary seismic at, itcan only besa that the corporeal safety of 2 Caleuitan is exposed to 2 greater threat from ‘other hazards inthe city (eg. walfie) compared 10 its potenal seismic hazard. There i some infor- ‘mation on major faults in Bengal basin and some tistore data on seismicity ofthe region. Aubough srudimentay, the information ae of erucilimpor- tance and conspicuous enough for initaing seis- ‘ological esearch; but hither, the information Ihave not been domed serious enough to mecit the tation of researchers Tllan daurnal of Barth Setences, Vl 21, No.2, p- 69-68, 1608 Y| | In this paper an stempt has been made to ompite all available telonic and seismic data (Fig.2) 08 the frst sep wards canying out assessment of the seismic hszard potential ofthe entral and southern Bengal basin, where a ‘megapolis lke Calcutta, with numerous industrial ‘stablishments and densely populated towns are in existence, STATUS OF PREDICTION RESEARCH AND SOCIAL RESPONSE, 2 ncesary temple ha dete sssmoleal sts can only provide ng tem, bails eaghqak har aceon based on statsical cto; fe. We Hkhnond ofancartiqsk ofa ven magia king pe inanarca.naiventineincrval Soch stadt bot ena treo decom Tis ites, "Yetenoes 0 Wet Spot a a Scuties ene FLT Spacing de ei Poomon ioe a tin eto Fie fiven the present state of knowledge, accurate short-term prediction of earthquake sno possible, ‘ot justin our country, but anywhere else in the world, Aspects of accurate prediction ae: (i) A ‘arrow time- window (less than a couple of months) for the reason that residents cannot be ‘eptina state ofred-ater indefinitely.) Anarzow ‘space-window (les thin $00 sq kn) because mas- sive evacuation and rehabilitation programmes ‘cannot be planned for vast areas: for instance, correct aswological predictions are reported to ‘have boon made for some large earthquakes, but the areas indicated involved whole counties for Which effective dsester mitigation strategies can ‘not be planned (ii) high level of confidence ‘magnitude prediction; say, an earthquake is cor. "Rely predicted within anarow space-time wig. dow, and massive evacuation programmes are Uunderiaken, but when whe predicted earthquake strikes, iis found to be a minor emer, no moreEARTHQUAKE HAZARD PTENTIAL OF BENGAL BASIN a than he viraows generated by a passing wock. Such paialinacuraies in sorte predictions axe bound undermine te eficacy ‘of less ac- curate, but more practical ong tx predictions. ‘Out ofthe numerous killer earthquakes during the postwar decades, only one was successfully pe= ict. On th Februny, 1975, a 7.3 magnitude carhquae suck Haicheng cy in Chin; the city ‘eas devasaid with 90% of te buildings soyed, but there were hardly a fow casuales Decause de esidets were forewarned and evacu- ated by town adminiseaters following a wasn fom Chinese seismologiss. nado o prec sor monitoring based on insiumena daa, in which die Ciese ar highly advanced, snr ‘major input thst went into Heicheng prediction was the abnormal behaviour of animals. 1s this observation, more than anything else, which prompd the scientists to sue an urgent warning {iat amajorcarbqakesimmizeas own adn: ‘svaor wok up the exe and swung ino immediate seton as, however, not easy 0 convince the citizens; flm-shows and enterainment pro- szammes had Wo be onpised 1 lure people ot It We soey of open spaces, da jor agedy vas averted. Sitcen months after th Hoicheng vent, Tangsang province of China wassurck by 78 magnitude earthquake. This, unforunately, could nthe predicted. The official dea ot was 242,000 and unofficial reports plac high as (655,00. Anumberof pecunrypenomena were reponted afer he Tangshang earthquake, but be- forethe tragedy, none of them were deemed aam- ing enough o iss an oficial warning. Prediction sais relating o these two evens in Chia ep- resend two exromes of prediton research “There ae oo many variables and oo many uncer lanes in precursors generated inthe cst, for accurate shorten prediction tobe possible in teat fue. San Andteas is probably the most closely monitored seismogenic fai in the word, yet it was not possible to predict accurately the oma Piet canhquake (Mb 7.1) which snek oa the 17th October, 1989. The earthquake didnot five any clear precursor signals, Long-exm p= sbiistie prediction, 2s mentioned eal, is posible {fom continual monitoring of seismogenic zones. ‘This was indeed made by United States Geological Survey: the USGS seismologsts predicted onthe basis of seismic gep analysis, uht in Loma Prieta section ofthe San Andkeas fault here was 830% robobily fora 6.5 t0 7.0 magniude earthquake during period 1988 to 2018 CTurcote, 1991). ‘These figures represent the achievable limits of data-based prediction; anything more definite, ‘ees beyond science imo the realm of mysticism, ‘There is another aspect of longterm predic tion, narely response of the society. The interac tion between human memory and growing society being the way itis, we are forever condemned to ‘overlok the lessons of devastation in history, re- gardless of whether the devastation was caused by ‘natural phenomenon or anthropogenic causes, ike wars. Consoquenly, we are also condemned to team our lessons the hard way, For instance, Shil- Jong town was razed tothe ground by the mon- ‘sous earthquake of 1897. Today sbout a hundred years aller what is considered one of the wort, if ot the worst, earthquake in recorded history, the ‘event is relegated to oblivion; under the pressure of populatin boom, Shillong has been forced to grow many times its size of 1897, bristling with big buildings uhat stand very lite ‘chance of sur- vival if tis stack by a similar earthquake, The clement of mischief played by human memory is ‘ot that it had allowed Shillong to grow, because _growih ofa town or city is unavoidable; but tat, ‘thas allowed vertical growth with scant regard 19 safely codes, Disregarding the safety codes and proper landuse plans, can make all Ue difference between fife and death, in a region of tectonic instability. SEISMIC HISTORY OF SOUTH AND CEN- ‘TRAL BENGAL «From 1737 191906 A.D, there are records of 28 low magnitude/intensity eartquakes in Cal- ceutla (ee appendix D. Before the adveot of seis- snograpis,eathquakes were described interms.ofD.R.NANDY the intensity of damage to civil suuctures, and it ‘was not possible to precisely determine Ur epi- centres. Consequently very litle wasknown about ‘earthquakes that stuck uninhabited regions. With the invention of seismographs, earthquakes were Pat need, 3~ Flt sug, 6 = Earhgee spceal ‘tapped by DSS prof, 4 ~ Linea, 5 —Fantgake tae th ners, 7 ~ Rajat voles, 8 ~ Basch, faults which may or may not manifest on the surface Chandra (1977) had carried out foral mecta- nism solutions of 6 earthquake events located in Gujarat, Maharashia, Tamil Nadu and West Ben- fal, The result of which shows thatthe pressure es of al the events orient N-S with low plunge ‘awards north, which indicate that stress distiba- tion inthe Tndian sheild reais grey influenced by the collision of Indian continent with Eurasia asEARTHQUAKE HAZARD PTENTIAL OF BENGAL BASIN 6 a result ofits northward movement. The cients tion of zones of weakness, such asthe subsurface ‘Gondwana basin marginal alt, fultbounding he Hinge zane ec, with respect to the ambient stress fold inthe area might be important factors in the loci of likely future earthquake CONCLUSION 1. That Caleua has experienced 30 odd felt eanh- ‘quakes during the last five centuries isa sober- ing realisation against the back drop of Latur ‘earthquake. Ther is, however, one redeeming factor inthe seismic history of south and cen- tral Bengal: none of them were catastrophic evens (discounuing the. the 1737 event for reasons sat eal). 2. The quiet nature of Bengal basin sesmicily is a source of lgiimate comfort, but atthe same time it must be realised thatthe foundation of CCaleuta and otber parts of Benga! besin are traversed at dops by (seismogenic ? faults) which seem corelatable with mast ofthe epi- centres filing inthe regon 3. Detaled geophysical, geological, geomor: phological and nootctonic studies ar, there fore require for idenufication of seismogenic, faults 4, densified seismogenic zones must be invest- gated for tei palaeoseismic character with he help of carbon dating facilites for estimation ofrtum period of eaniquakes caused by dese faults; and these faults need monitoring of sh ‘precursor phenomenon like Vp/Vs ratio ‘changes, resistivity changes, gravity-magnetic ‘anomalies, gas emision suis ct, aS. and ‘when required, ‘5. Monitoring seismogenic 200es lads to quanti~ fication of earthquake hazard potential which essential forlandus sagiesani definition ‘of seismic safety codes based on microzona- tion, and also for hazard mitigation sateies 6. Mediacan eontibut sigificany by promoting awareness among people, instead of fanning Ube feeling of helplessness tha invariably fol- {owsinthe wake ofa majornataral disaster ike Latur earthquake, ACKNOWLEDGEMENT {Cita review ofthis paper by Sti Samaresh Sanyal, geologi(Se.), GSI is gratefully acknow- edged. The diagrams have ben drafted by Shri N. Karmakar, STA(D.0)..GSI. [REFERENCES ‘Anon 199: Stats of proteus Exploration in Bengal ‘Basia: Proc. Brain Storming Session, 22nd Fes, 190, Cale, organized by ONGC. ‘Chandra Umesh 1977 Eakiguakes of Peni Indie = Avssmotecoie stay: Bul Ses Soe. Ame ($15, 13871613. Das Gupta, Sujit, Mukhopatiyay, M. and Nandy, DR 1987. Asie taravecre errs in ent] Por tion of the Himalsys: Tectonophysics 136, 25.264, (Ghosh, RN, sd Melumde, 8, 1979: Neogene Quster- rary sequence of Kesai Basin, West Bengal __- Basin, India: Proc. Neogent-Qurteenary 1 Bandary Feld Conterene, Init Kail KL, Red, 2, Mal, DM, Venkata N, Kitna, VG, Prasad, ASSS. RS. 1992: CCrsial suture Wert Bengal Basi, India from doop ecsmie soning invesigaons Geophys, ou Ft 5-66, ‘Malthopadiyay, M. Verma, RK. and Astral, Mi 1986: Groviy ld and rstres of Ramah Hits: Example ofthe Palaco-Msezieconi- ‘pent margin in Baste odin: Tetonophys- fer 131, 33-367. Sengupla,R. as, RC. Bandyopadhyay. A, Rashi, S Tad Sarna, B. 1990: Seanens inthe eoni= ena shel and sound the Swatch of No ‘Ground: Gel Sav. Ind. Spl Pub No29,201- 201 —_.6 D.R.NANDY Singh, VP an Shenker, D. 1992: One selanicy snd Tuco. 199: Earthuske Prediction: Arn Row, tect city fe Bengal asin: Maan, ‘arth Planet. Scene, 263-281, 1378. ‘Smith Bird R. 1848: Mem of Indian Eartha “ur, Asa Sock, Vl XII, 1029-1056, Manuscript Received February 3,194 eised Manusrit Received March 28, 1994,EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PTENTIAL OF BENGAL BASIN APPENDIX oe ‘CATALOGUE OF EARTHQUAKES: (AL AND SOUTH BENGAL 215p- 26K 86°F: 90%) Si. Due LaMont) —_Leng(st)_ Location Mapes Ret, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 HL WTO _ 26 B84 Cuma x uc. 42 Mkts — 2S 4 Calan v uc. 3 Vettes = 40 B80 Banksof Gangs vin uc. 4 OR Api 1 22.6 84 Chanden Nagar v uc. 5 Ul0Aapy 26 4 Calo v uc. 6 1810My.13 226 4 Caleta v uc. 7. Feb.) = 226 884 Cala vw us. 2 im6hy 226 sa Claw v uc. 9 IDApLS — 40 9.0 Bengal vit uc. 10. UDAWBIE — 26 4 Cala vt us. N. WBAM —- 26 84 Cama v uc. 12, 1823Nw,26 26 840 Cau v uy Bmet0 26 a4 Cau v us. M4 W279 26 4 Caeus v uc. 15, 1828 fuy,8 26 BA Crleuiia it uc. 16, 1928 SeH,18 2S 84 Coleus v uc. AIT. WISHES 4 Cows vw ug 18 1884 0y,8 288 94 Rengpur vit uc. 19. 1834.21 25.8 4 Rangpur vilt vu 2. 361024 29 $84 Chanden Nager v uc. 21 WBPMe. 253 6S amalpar vl uc. 2, 182My,21 250 70 Benge van uc. 2. 1M2Me,23 250 10 Bengal v uc. 424 H2Nor, 250 900 Bengal-Assam 1 uc. 25. WAS May. 227 4 Seeampore v uc. 26. ieisiay, 227 4 Serampore v uc. 77. 1845 Aug,6 2227 4 Seanpore vit ue. 2 TMS 226 a4 Caeut vi uc. 2. 1918Feh, 20 226 4 Caleta v uc. 30. 1848 Now,30 226 4 Calon v uc. BI. 1849 J0n,22 226 4 Cale wv uc. ) 2 USOMy,7 228 BA Ces 43v uc.oy MSR, ns D.R.NANDY wes 2 sth, 226 ma 3S. SHRI 726 a 3A 1N6L Ap 18 226 a 3. 1W6SNov.1T 252 992 3B, 1865ee, 20 44 887 RampurBoain B. 165,25 234 BS Keingar ®. 186630,23 248 BCom AL 166 My.23 25.0 0 angst 42. 1969 June, 226 m4 Caowte 48, 1895 Api.26 27.0 a3 M. 1685I418 40 900 East Mite Bengal 45. 6S Juy.24 25.0 92 Natore Rengpur 46 Wis Dee. 2 226 4 Cota 47. 1906 Sepu,29 226 mA Coats 4, 1906066 26 4 Calaats 8. 1930.2 255 woe 50. 1932Mach,24 250 900 North Bangladesh 51. 1935 March, 21242 ws na 52. 1957 Dee, 16 240 900 NearDces 53. 1960Jm.4 250 00 Near Duta S190May9 155 5 Rangpur 9:58, 1968 april S217 80 Mihspare 56.1964 Fone.9 21.7 817 Com 57. 1966 March, 259) 500 Dist 58 WoT hays 235 815 Bot Asana 49, 20 6 Bankura @ 282 BS Dinalpur 61, 979 ApI, 259 3 N Bengal $2, 198IMach,26 223 © 91 angles 60.1983 Dee,23 259 819 Nine 64, 13 Ap,27 20 $80 Sout Bengal .193M,16 1 1 Bake 6 BI, 1221.83 8.70 South Bangles ‘UC. Uniesh Candsa{ 1977, SIN-Singh snd Shankar (1952) ‘40 «india Mtrolgical Deparment, New Deki, 15C"Inemaonal Seismological Centre UK, 5.0/VI 5.6/Vilt 43/V 5.0 5.7/V 5.7/1 43/v 5.0/VL 50M 71 56 63 v 5S 44 43/V 82 52 47 49 43 42 «nas ST vc : uc ue. ue. ve. ve f use “ue be vc ue. sn ve ue: ve. ue ve sn ve. i ve ue ve. : vc Y ve. uc Be ve. ue. ve uc SIN sin mp