Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea Fires Ballistic
Missile Over Japan
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 30, 2017

A major development has just taken place today and we request your urgent
assessment. North Korea fired a ballistic missile that passed over Japan, around 5:57
a.m. local time on Tuesday, August 29.
A South Korean military official told NBC News that the missile flew for about 2,700
kilometers (1,678 miles), reaching a maximum altitude of 550 kilometers (342 miles).
According to Itsunori Onodera, Japans defense minister, this missile was very likely a
Hwasong-12, which is classified as intermediate range and is fired from mobile
launchers. North Korea successfully tested a Hwasong 12 in May.
Notably, the missile fired on Tuesday took off from near Pyongyang, North Koreas
capital. Early reports indicated it was launched from a site near Pyongyangs
international airport, not the usual launch site (remote areas, where there would be
little concern about civilian casualties) in the northeast.
We request your response to the following questions:
Q1- This latest missile test may be Pyongyangs most provocative test this year. In your
assessment, what does it mean for North Korea to fly a missile over Japan? What is
the message of Tuesdays test?
ANSWER: North Koreas firing of an intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan is
a very provocative act and demonstrates that North Korea can strike U.S. allies, such
as Japan and South Korea, that host American troops on their soil.
North Korea is demonstrating that it will respond to threats against its regime such as
joint South Korean-U.S. exercises now underway and threats by President Donald
Trump to unleash fury and fire against North Korea.
Each missile launch helps North Korea develop further its missile technology and
create a more credible deterrent to respond with conventional, chemical and
biological or nuclear weapons to any attack on its soil.
Q2- In your assessment, why did North Korea change the launch site this time?
ANSWER: North Korea fires its missiles from mobile sites to demonstrate that the
United States or other adversaries cannot launch a pre-emptive strike and destroy all
of North Korean missiles in one sudden attack. This means North Korea will have the
capacity to absorb a first strike from the U.S. and then retaliate.
 2

Q3- Japan said that their armed forces did not try to shoot down the North Korean
missile on Tuesday because they did not detect a threat to Japanese territory. But do
you think the actual reason is that its not easy to shoot down a ballistic missile?
ANSWER: Japan is in possession of the Patriot ballistic missile defence system that is
capable of shooting down an intermediate range ballistic missile. Japanese (and U.S.)
satellites and radar would have detected the missile on launch and calculated its
trajectory. If Japan concluded that the missile was going to overfly Japan and there
was no reason to shoot it down. But Japan may also have calculated that shooting the
missile down might cause an unexpected reaction from North Korea. Finally, Japan
may have calculated that the risks of taking no action were lower than the risks of
shooting the missile down, especially if the Patriot missile defence system failed.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Over Japan,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 30, 2017. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.