Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea Tests Hydrogen
Bomb

Carlyle A. Thayer
September 3, 2017

North Korea just announced a successful test of a hydrogen bomb. While it will be
discussed it seems that North Korea's nuclear/missile program is really advanced. How
do you see this and, I know it is a huge issue, but what is your preferable scenario how
to dealwith North Korea?
ANSWER: The reported testing of a hydrogen bomb by North Korea must be confirmed
by air particle samples taken by a surveillance (sniffer) aircraft and other technical
means. lf the reports that North Korea has conducted its sixth nuclear test are
confirmed, this will be a make or break test for President Donald Trump's threat to
unleash "fury and fire." Donald Trump has put himself in a corner. He risks starting a
deadly military conflict with North Korea or backing down and in effect accepting that
North Korea, like lndia and Pakistan, are nuclear states outside international control
regimes.
There are no good scenarios for North Korea. Any U.S. strike risks igniting a war on the
Korean peninsula that could escalate by North Korean missile strikes against not only
South Korea but Japan.
lf the U.S. takes no action North Korea will be emboldened by its brinkmanship to
further develop nuclear weapons and their means of delivery.
The best scenario would be for the United States, China and Russia to agree to even
further sanctions by cutting off essential energy and other supplies to North Korea.
Then the five members of the Six Party Talks (South Korea, China, Japan, United States
and Russia) need to hold a summit to reach an agreed policy on North Korea in order
to entice it back to the negotiating table.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "North Korea Tests Hydrogen Bomb," Thoyer
Consultancy Bockground Brief , September 3,20L7. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd,com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
North Korea's Hydrogen Bomb:
Make or Break for Trump
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 3, 2017

Breaking news: it has been reported that North Korea has conducted its sixth nuclear
test by exploding a hydrogen bomb. What is your view of the potential ramifications
of the DPRK's [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] nuclear test?
ANSWER: This is make or break time for President Trump. On the one hand, he has
been bellicose and shooting from the mouth: "fury and fire the likes of which the world
has not seen" and "locked and loaded." On the other hand, Trump respects the fact
that Kim Jong-un is showing signs of respect for him Trump is known for his ability to
say one thing and do another. Now as Commander in Chief he is tweeting messages
that seem to walk back from his bellicose rhetoric.
ln sum, Trump's response will not deter North Korea from becoming a de facto nuclear
state and develop the capability to strike continental United States. Trumps'rhetoric
has been mugged by reality as there is very little the U.S. can do to prevent North
Korea from continuing on its present course. Although China and Russia have
condemned North Korean's nuclear test, they also want the U.S. to stop "provocative
joint military exercises" with South Korea and to remove the THAAD (Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense) ballistic missile defense system from South Korea. President
Trump's bluff of rhetorical bombast has been called by Kim Jong-un.This is a major
setback for Trump's foreign policy.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "North Korea's Hydrogen Bomb: Make or Break
for Trump," Thayer Consultoncy Background Brief , September 3,201-7 . All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.