You are on page 1of 2

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123


Vietnam: Eleven Foreign Policy
Challenges and Opportunities
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 5, 2017

We are planning a series of reports on Vietnams foreign policy in 2017. We request


your response to the following two questions:
Q1: Vietnam was once considered to be a mediator in U.S North Korea relations.
What are the prospects of Vietnam playing a mediator role now?
ANSWER: In order for Vietnam to play the role of mediator in the current crisis on the
Korean peninsula four things are necessary. First, Vietnam must be willing to give this
matter high priority and be willing to invest diplomatic time and effort. Second, North
Korea must be willing to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis and trust Vietnam.
Third, the United State must also trust Vietnam and be willing to meet with North
Korea. Fourth, South Korea must approve of Vietnam as a mediator. In the past
Vietnam served as neutral ground for talks between Japan and North Korea on the
issue of family reunions and kidnapped Japanese. If Vietnam cannot play the role of
mediator that does not prevent it from providing a venue for secret talks. At the
present time the conditions do not seem ripe for talks between Pyongyang and
Washington. North Korea rebuffed South Koreas call for talks recently. President
Trump has said the time for talk is over.
Q2: What are the challenges and opportunities in 2017 that Vietnam fill face with
respect to diplomatic issues?
ANSWER: There are at least eleven foreign policy challenges and opportunities that
Vietnam will face in 2017:
1. Successfully holding the APEC Summit and the official visits by Xi Jinping and
Donald Trump
2. Getting relations with China back on track through meetings of foreign
ministers and resumption of the friendly border defence exchanges
3. Managing disputes in the East Sea while asserting Vietnams sovereign
jurisdiction to explore for oil in the Vanguard Bank
4. Deciding whether to proceed with the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) 11
(minus the U.S.)
5. Successfully concluding a bilateral trade agreement with the United States
(and avoid penalties by Trump for a huge trade surplus)
2

6. Resolving the Trinh Xuan Thanh case with Germany to avoid punitive action
and damage to Vietnam-EU relations
7. Successful lobbying for non-permanent membership on the UN Security
Council, 2020-21
8. Promoting ASEAN unity through initiatives supporting ASEAN-Community
building
9. Foreign strategic partnerships will all Southeast Asian states and upgrading
existing comprehensive partnerships to a higher level
10. Promoting defence cooperation through practical military activities and
exercises with regional states and other strategic partners to enhance
Vietnams ability to defend itself
11. Successful preparations for the deployment of a Level 2 field hospital on a UN
Peacekeeping Mission in South Sudan

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Eleven Foreign Policy Challenges and
Opportunities, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 5, 2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

You might also like