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Q2. ln what ways does the umbrella of China's support protect Cambodia from fallout
from the government's decision to arrest the opposition leader for treason and
implicating the US in the "plot"?
ANSWER: China will pick up the pieces if the U.S. or other donor countries resort to
sanctions or punitive actions against Cambodia. ln the past when the U.S. has
suspended the supply of military vehicles, China has stepped in and provided its own
vehicles. Hun Sen can rest assured that China will provide material and financial
support in the event punitive action is taken.
China opportunisticallywill restate its adherence to the principle of non-interference
in Cambodia's internal affairs. Hun Sen and the CPP regime will be insulated to a
certain extent from external pressures,
At the worst period in U.S.-Cambodia relations, following the 1997 coup, the U.S.
channeled its aid through NGOs so as not to hurt the Cambodian people. lt is doubtful
the U.S. under the Trump Administration would invest much in pushing back against
Hun Sen, The call will be made by Secretary Rex Tillerson and his hands appear full at
2
the moment, besides the State Department is woefully understaffed and aid cuts are
forecast. This gives the U.S. less leverage.
Q3. Though many Western countries have lost significant influence in Cambodia,
correlating with a drop in their political will to engage, Japan retains the second largest
development fund footprint and the second largest FDI [foreign direct investment] in
Cambodia. lt has invested time and resources in Cambodia's elections. lt, however,
has stayed silent only offering a statement saying it was "watching the situation with
great interest."
ANSWER: Japan, as a liberal democracy, joined with other likeminded states to
support the UNTAC [United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia] process and
the new Constitution that decreed Cambodia was a liberal democracy. Japan will likely
take its lead from other likeminded countries such Australia, the United States and
other democratic donor countries.
Japan has long been motivated to counter China's rising influence in Cambodia and
Japanese investment and overseas development assistance was meant to reinforce
the activities of its partners. Japan also takes a long-range view and will wait and see
how current developments will impact on free and fair national elections next year.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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Cambodia's Anti-Americanism :
Should Trump Respond?
Carlyle A. Thayer
Septemb er 6, 2017
Q1) To your knowledge, does the State Department have any kind of strategic
response options to the Cambodian government's attack on U.S. institutions and
programs in Cambodia? Surely, they have known for a long time that something like
this was coming.
ANSWER: Hun Sen's actions may have been forecast, but the steps he has taken this
year are unprecedented. lt can only be surmised that the State Department is in
disarray with the new Trump Administration, a new Secretary of State with little
experience in diplomacy, vacancies at senior level, and impending budget cuts. The
U.S, Mission has offered some push back. lt is more likely U.S. advocacy groups and
the U.S, Congress will take steps to respond; but quite frankly Cambodia is not
frontpage news.
Q2) The State Department has lost a vast amount of capacity and direction since
Donald Trump came to power and Rex Tillerson began effectively down-sizing it. Do
you think these actions by the Trump administration have hamstrung the
department's ability to respond to spot fires in these small but still quite important
relationships?
ANSWER: There was no response by the Trump Administration when Hun Sen
cancelled military exercises with the U.S. earlier this year. Since Trump's Afghanistan
speech, in which he nixed nation-building and democracy promotion, who at State will
take any initiative against Hun Sen?
The Trump Administration was required by Congress to submit a National Security
Strategy (NSS) within L2O days of coming into office. None has been forthcoming. The
NSS provides the framework for a set of subsidiary policies. The Trump Administration
has exhibited no ability to think strategically and multilateralism is no doubt a taboo
word. The Trump Administration did not respond to President Rodrigo Duterte's
trashing of the U.S. alliance. lt is doubtfulthat Cambodia is on their radar screen.
According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (httpq://usU.gqv/gquntriqs-
resions/southeast-asia-pacific/Cambodia-), Cambodia has a trade surplus with the
United States of S2.8 billion out of a total two-way trade of $3.2 billion. The U.S. ranks
tenth among goods exporters to Cambodia, while Cambodia ranks L03rd in U.S. goods
exports. The United States is Cambodia's largest single-country export market.
Q3) Cambodia was very worried about the TPP [Tarns Pacific Partnership]. Has the
scuppering of it cost the U.S. a valuable bargaining chip in situations like this and
embolden Hun Sen or was its influence negligible anyway?
ANSWER: President Trump's withdrawal of the U.S. from the TPP has left it without a
valuable means of leverage across the region. Since the U.S. has not yet articulated a
Q6) What response do you think the U.S. will take? What response should they take?
ANSWER: The United States is likely to roll with Hun Sen's punches much as the Trump
Administration has shown remarkable restraint in not responding to Duterte's
provocations. After all President Trump praised his Philippine counterpart for his war
on drugs.
The last thing Hun Sen would want would be to provoke the U.S. - whether the
Congress, White House or U.S. trade representative - to raise Cambodia's market
access to the United States. Unrest by textile workdrs would destabilize the Hun Sen
regime and provide grist forthe opposition mill.
Both House and Senate foreign affairs/relations committees should hold hearings on
Cambodia (and perhaps the Philippines as well) to define U.S. interests in Cambodia
and raise policy responses to Hun Sen's anti-Americanism. A stronger response would
be for the State Department to show some U.S. leadership on Cambodia among the
donor community especially with Australia, Japan and the EU states.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.