TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Guy Cecil, Chairman, Priorities USA, Garin Hart Yang Research, Group Global Strategy Group
DATE: September 15, 2017
RE: Economic Research Findings: Persuadable and Democratic Drop-off Voters

New research conducted on behalf of Priorities USA among key groups of persuadable voters and mobilization
targets shows that there is a broad and growing identification of Donald Trump as someone who looks out
first and foremost for the wealthy at a time when the economic situation for the middle class is seen as
getting worse rather than better. Voters economic concerns are driven by worries about affording the cost of
health care. Anxieties about being able to retire comfortably and keeping up with the cost of living for basic
expenses also are top-tier economic concerns. The tax cut debate poses significant pitfalls for Trump and
other Republicans, because the groups that are primary targets for Democrats oppose a plan that gives the
largest tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans and big corporations, even if it also cuts their own personal income
taxes. Democratic party leaders, progressive organizers, and local activists should focus on the tax reform
debate to make inroads with these voters.

Many persuadable voters are taking a wait-and-see attitude about whether Trump will deliver on the promises he
made about the economy during his campaign, and say they wont know until next year whether he is keeping his
word on the economy. Prime targets recognize that the stock market is improving, but do not see improvements in
other parts of the economy that are more personal to them including jobs in their own communities and wages
that keep up with the cost of living. Across these various target constituencies, the biggest concern about Trump
on the economy is that he is too often distracted by controversy and the constant chaos, scandal, and fighting that
prevents anything from getting done.

These survey results are significant because they show that a progressive platform on economic change
is more persuasive than the Republican agenda of cutting taxes and regulations among these voters. The
most important economic values for target voters are creating an economy that works for everyonenot just the
wealthy and big corporationsand closing loopholes used by the wealthy to avoid contributing their fair share to the
economy. By a large margin, persuasion and mobilization targets say the best way to create jobs is through job
training, skill development, and education to prepare Americans for the jobs of the future, rather than by cutting
taxes and regulations on businesses.

Opportunities for Democrats

This survey sampled two key groups of voters who will affect Democratic prospects in 2018 and beyond. The
persuasion universe included: (1) Romney voters from 2012 who did not support Donald Trump in 2016, and (2)
Trump voters who either previously voted for President Obama or who supported Trump with mixed feelings in
2016. The mobilization universe included Democrats who vote intermittently both those who did not vote at all in
2016, and those who do not regularly vote in non-presidential elections.

The survey results show there are significant opportunities for Democrats add new voters to their column
in 2018 both by mobilizing more Democrats and winning over persuadable swing voters. Forty-five percent
of the persuasion universe is open to voting for a Democrat down-ballot, and their underlying attitudes lead them
definitively in that direction. As we have seen in recent special and primary elections, Democrats who have
dropped out of voting in previous elections are more motivated in upcoming elections, in no small part because
they feel they have a lot at stake personally in the way economic issues are litigated at this stage.

One important finding from the survey is that there is an extraordinary degree of alignment between the
persuasion targets and mobilization targets in their core economic attitudes, and the economic messages
that most appeal to one group typically are highly appealing to the other group.
Lack of enthusiasm for Trumps economic record

So far, target voters are a lot less impressed with Donald Trumps economic record than Donald Trump
seems to be. Among persuasion targets who are open to voting for Democrats, just 25% say that Trump is
delivering on the promises he made about the economy during his campaign, while 33% say he is not and 42%
say it is too soon to tell. Less than half (42%) of all Obama-Trump voters feel confident Trump is delivering on his
promises. Among mobilization targets, 76% feel sure that Trump is not delivering on his promises.

There is an expiration date on how long voters are willing to wait for Trump to deliver. Among the persuadable
voters who are open to Democrats but say its too soon to make a judgment on Trump, nearly all say they will
know for sure one way or the other about Trumps economic performance by the midterm elections.

When we ask voters about the performance of the economy under Trump, the stock market is the only net positive
(+32%) among persuasion voters who are open to voting Democratic. There are small net negatives for:
The availability of good jobs locally (-11%)
The U.S. economy as a whole (-7%)

And we find very large net negatives for:

The economic situation for young people (-39%)
The economic situation for the middle class (-45%)
Wages and incomes keeping up with the cost of living (-39%).

(The verdict on each of these is substantially more negative among mobilization targets.)

Perceptions of Trumps economic effectiveness are being weighed down by the aura of chaos and
controversy that surrounds Trump. Nearly all voters in both the persuasion and mobilization universes believe
it is true that instead of staying focused on the economy, Donald Trump is too often distracted by controversy and
the constant chaos, scandal, and fighting that prevents anything from getting done. This is the most commonly
selected concern voters have about Trumps handling of the economy.

Health care is a top driver of economic concerns

Health care ranks as the top issue concern among both persuasion targets who are most open to Democrats
(46%) and Democratic mobilization targets (54%) ahead of both jobs and taxes. The reason for this is apparent
when voters are asked to select their biggest economic worry, with health care topping the list among the full range
of subgroups (58% among all persuasion targets, 53% among mobilization targets). Other dominant economic
concerns include being able to retire comfortably and with dignity, and affording basic expenses and being able to
keep up with the cost of living.

Given the very high salience of health care, it is significant that under Donald Trump, voters overwhelmingly see
the cost of health care getting worse rather than better. Fully 82% of all persuasion voters say the cost of health
care is getting worse, as do 80% of mobilization targets. Other polling shows that voters are inclined to give Trump
a fair share of the blame for problems in the healthcare system.

An increasing view that Trump stands with the wealthy

The results from this survey reinforce other findings that economic security and economic opportunity are
important priorities for these voters. It also is clear, however, that among both the top persuasion targets and
Democratic mobilization targets, there is substantial antagonism to the special benefits and advantages given to
those at the top. Among persuadable voters most open to Democrats and mobilization targets, for example, the
economic goals most frequently rated as extremely important are:
Create an economy that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and big corporations, and
Close loopholes used by the wealthy to avoid contributing their fair share to the economy.
Across groups, large majorities think the middle class and average working families are paying more than their fair
share in taxes, and equally large majorities say that big corporations and millionaires and billionaires are not
paying their fair share.

Against this backdrop, it is important that among the persuasion targets who are most open to Democrats, 55%
now see Donald Trump as favoring the wealthy, while just 44% say he looks out mainly for the middle class or for
all groups equally. One of the most surprising and significant findings from this research is that there has
been a 20-point increase since January in the share of persuadable voters who see Trump as looking out
primarily for the wealthy from 21% to 41%. As bad as these results are for Trump, they are even worse for
the Republican Party as a whole, which is seen by large majorities as looking out first and foremost for the wealthy
(61% among persuasion voters most open to Democrats, 92% among mobilization targets).

Among persuasion voters who are most open to voting for Democrats, 28% say Democrats look out primarily for
the wealthy, 36% say they look out primarily for the poor, and 36% say they look out primarily for the middle class
or all groups equally.

If these key voters recognize that the tax bill being pushed by Trump and congressional Republicans gives
the wealthiest Americans and big corporations the largest tax cuts, they will oppose itand the views of
Trump and Republicans being for the rich most likely will be deepened. Persuadable voters who are most
open to Democrats say by 57% to 43% they would oppose the tax bill, even if it cut their own income taxes.
Democratic mobilization targets would oppose it by 73% to 27%.

Democrats still must communicate their own economic plans

This poll shows that Democrats have a strong case to make on the economy, but that more voters need to hear it.
Now, only a minority of persuadable voters have a clear sense that Democrats economic policies would be good
for people like them. There is room to grow and build intensity among Democratic mobilization targets as well
(65% say Democratic economic policies would be good for them). These findings were echoed throughout our
focus group conversations, in which both persuadable and drop off voters were somewhat disconnected from the
policy issues of the dayincluding both what Democrats stand for, and what Trump and the Republicans are
proposing to do.

The good news for Democrats from this poll is that these key groups of target voters see the world in
terms that are much closer to the Democratic economic agenda than to the Republican economic agenda.
Among all persuadable voters (even those who are less open to Democrats), clear majorities prefer economic
ideas aligned with Democrats:

Which statement do you agree with more?

(Among ALL persuadable voters)

The best way to support America's middle

class is to raise people's incomes, create
good-paying jobs, and reduce families'
expenses for essentials such as child
care, education, and healthcare
The best way to support America's middle
class is to lower taxes for all businesses
and all Americans
The right way to create jobs is through
job training, skill development, and
65% 58%
education that prepares American
workers for the jobs of the future
The right way to create jobs is to cut
35% taxes and regulations on businesses so 42%
they can afford to hire American workers
Conclusion

Donald Trump promised voters he would make their lives better economically, but many of his own supporters and
Romney Republicans are not yet feeling thatand they wont wait forever for Trump to show he is delivering on
his promises. Issues like health care costs and lack of retirement security are major sources of economic anxiety,
and key target groups of voters think that under Trump, the situation for the middle class is getting worse rather
than better. Trump and Republicans are vulnerable on economic issues because voters see a lack of focus on
economic progress as a casualty of the chaos and scandal they associate with the Trump administration, and
because they see Trump and Republicans as siding with the wealthy. Democrats have an opportunity to mobilize
new voters to their side in 2018 because of these factorsespecially if Democratic candidates build greater
awareness of their agenda to expand economic security and economic opportunity.

Appendix
Global Strategy Group and Garin Hart Yang Research Group conducted an online survey among 1,219 registered
voters nationwide, from August 16th to 29th, 2017. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-2.9%. The survey
was divided into persuadable (n=815) and Democratic drop-off (n=404) voter universes. Global Strategy Group
and Garin Hart Yang Research Group also conducted focus groups from July 25th to August 2nd, 2017 in
Cleveland, OH, Orlando, FL, and Phoenix, AZ, including three with persuadable Trump/Republican-leaning voters;
two with African-American drop off voters; and two with predominantly Hispanic drop off voters.