8/21/2016 ArebellionintheLords|ProspectMagazine

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A rebellion in the Lords

Brexit is not as widely supported as the new Prime

Minister assumes
by Patience Wheatcroft / August 18, 2016 / Leave a comment
Published in September 2016 issue of Prospect Magazine

The Duchess of Cornwall and the Prince of Wales (left) sit alongsideQueen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh
(centre) in the House of Lords inthe Palace of Westminster in London, during the State Opening of Parliament, 18th
May 2016 Arthur Edwards/The Sun/PA Wire/Press Association Images

Theresa May has declared that We are all Brexiters now. Oh no, we
are not. I remain a Remainer and so do many of my colleagues on
the Conservative benches in the House of Lords.

Across the Chamber, there is an overwhelming majority in favour of

Britains continued membership of the European Union. The
questions put to ministers in the weeks between the referendum and
the summer recess made it clear that peers were not prepared to
concede defeat and keep quiet about their qualms. That may lead to
some challenging, and potentially dangerous, waters ahead.

Most Conservative peers recognise that to join calls for a second

referendum now would be to risk derision: an unelected elite
attempting to overturn a democratic decision of the electorate. It was
a relatively slender majority, secured on the basis of a campaign of
false promises, including that infamous extra 350m a week that
would be available to the NHS if we were to leave the EU, a cynical
confusion of gross and net which would bankrupt any business
within months. Even so, we have to respect the result. But the

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referendum is only the rst step in a process which has yet to be
mapped out and may allow plenty of scope for the Lords to ex their
pro-Europe muscles.

David Pannick QC, a cross-bench peer, is leading on the court case

which could culminate in a battle between the Lords and the
Commons. The case centres on the triggering of Article 50 of the
Lisbon Treaty, the point at which, arguably, the country is set
inexorably on the road out of the EU. The prime minister has said
that she will not press that trigger before 2017, but the question is
whether she can take that action alone.

The government position is that, through the exercise of the Royal

prerogativea wonderfully British constitutional nicetythe prime
minister has the right to turn a referendum vote that was merely
advisory into an action with huge ramications. Pannick argues that
there should be an Act of Parliament to activate Article 50.

The case is almost certain to be argued all the way up to the

Supreme Court and the ultimate decision will be made by late
autumn. It will not just be his cross-bench colleagues who are willing
Pannick to victory but a majority of the Lords. They will be hoping for
a Bill that gives the opportunity to make a dierence or, as it will
appear to the new government Department for Exiting the EU, to
make trouble.

Both David Cameron and Theresa May have given assurances that
there will be parliamentary involvement before Article 50 is activated.
Even though the government is contesting the Pannick case, there is
an acceptance that, whatever the legal position, from a political
viewpoint it might not be advisable to attempt to bypass parliament.
Given that parliamentarians in both houses were heavily in favour of
Remain, this poses problemsbut those problems are far greater
in the Lords, where being unelected fosters a degree of
independence which can be irritating, even infuriating, for
governments.

In October last year, the Lords defeated the plans of the then
Chancellor, George Osborne, to cut tax credits. He was so furious
that he and the prime minister set up a review to constrain the
power of the Lords over nancial matters or statutory instruments.
He subsequently discovered the cash not merely to delay the tax
credit cuts, as the Lords had wanted, but to abandon them
altogether.

Faced with an even greater rebellion in the Lords on Article 50, the
government might, if it had the option, choose to restrict
parliamentary involvement to the Commons only, where it has a
working majority of 16. Whatever their personal views, many MPs of
all persuasions might feel that they would have to vote in line with
their constituents, bearing in mind that they will be coming up for
election again. The power of the whip should ensure that the prime
minister would have Commons support to activate Article 50.

Steering a Bill through both Houses would be much harder. There

are just 243 Conservative peers out of a total of 798. While among
them there are some vociferous outers, including former Cabinet
members Nigel Lawson, Norman Tebbit, Norman Lamont and
Michael Forsyth, there are many equally vocal Tories for Remain.
With no constituents to fear and a conviction that remaining in the
EU and helping it reform would be a much better option than
plunging into the unknown, they would defy the whip, which cannot
inict the same pain as it does in the Commons. The Lords would be
resoundingly not content and could remain a blockage to the
legislation for up to one year.

Much might change in that time. The EU might even concede that the
UK was not the only country which needed to see some curbs on free
movement and make changes. Then their lordships might argue that

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there was a good reason to call that second referendum and hope
for a very dierent result.

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Britain voting to leave could undermine Cameron's "big

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Richard Dearlove / March 23, 2016

Britain provides more intelligence to Europe than it gets

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