BUSINESS SCHOOL

Unit of Study Outline

Unit Code QBUS2820
Unit Title Predictive Analytics
Semester 2, 2017
Pre-requisite Units: QBUS2810 or ECMT2110
Co-requisite Units:
Prohibited Units:
Assumed Knowledge and/or Skills: This unit draws directly on the content of the prerequisite units. You must be
adequately prepared and revise if necessary.
Unit Coordinator: Dr Marcel Scharth
Address: Room 4161, Abercrombie Precinct(H70), The University of Sydney NSW 2006
Email: marcel.scharth@sydney.edu.au Phone:
Consultation Hours: See LMS.
Class Day(s): Lectures on Wednesdays 9am at ABS Case Study Lecture Theatre 1170 (Weeks 1 to 13). Consult
your timetable for the tutorial times and venues.
Required Text / Resources:

Textbooks:

James, Gareth, Daniela Witten, Trevor Hastie, and Robert Tibshirani. An Introduction to Statistical Learning.
Springer Texts in Statistics . New York: Springer, 2013. Free download available at
http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~gareth/ISL/.

Hyndman, Rob J and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice. Free online textbook a
vailable at http://otexts.com/fpp/.

Python:

Python is the computational engine that will allow us to bring the material into practice in the way that it is done by
data scientists at major companies. Python is a free and open source general purpose programming language
that has become the language of data science (together with R). It has powerful data manipulation, statistics,
machine learning, data visualisation, and scientific libraries. Python is simple to learn and use and is supported by
a large community of users in industry and academia. Follow the link below for installation instructions.

http://www.marcelscharth.com/python/#setting-up-python

The unit assumes basic knowledge of Python as in QBUS2810. You are expected to independently work on your
Python skills as needed using online resources such as https://www.dataquest.io/.

Attending tutorials will not be sufficient to achieve implementation fluency. You need to make sure to have the time
and basic knowledge necessary to practice by modifying and building on the code given in the tutorials.

Self-study:

Students will be expected to self-study material in addition to what will be covered in the lectures and tutorials.

This unit of study outline MUST be read in conjunction with

The Business School Unit of Study Common Policy and implementation information that applies to every unit of study offered by the
Business School (http://sydney.edu.au/business/currentstudents/policy). All assessment rules, such as standards used, penalties etc, are
covered.

The Business School Student Administration Manual - for information about all processes such as illness, appeals etc (
http://sydney.edu.au/business/currentstudents/student_information/student_administration_manual) When deciding applications and

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appeals relating to these matters it will be assumed that every student has taken the time to familiarise themselves with these key policies
and procedures.

The Business School seeks feedback from students and staff in order to continually improve all units offered. For information on previously
collected feedback and innovations made in response to this feedback, please see
http://sydney.edu.au/business/learning/planning_and_quality/feedback/student

1. Unit of Study Information

Predictive analytics are a set of tools to enable managers to exploit the patterns found in transactional and
historical data. For example major retailers will invest in predictive analytics to understand, not just consumers'
decisions and preferences, but also their personal habits, so as to more efficiently market to them. This unit
introduces different techniques of data analysis and modelling that can be applied to traditional and non-traditional
problems in a wide range of areas including stock forecasting, fund analysis, asset allocation, equity and fixed
income option pricing, consumer products, as well as consumer behaviour modelling (credit, fraud, marketing).
The forecasting techniques covered in this unit are useful for preparing individual business forecasts and
long-range plans. The unit has a practical approach with many up-to-date datasets used for demonstration in class
and in the assignments.

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2. Program Learning Outcomes and Unit Learning Outcomes

The Program Learning Outcomes for this Program are located at
http://sydney.edu.au/business/about/accreditations/AoL

Unit Learning Outcomes

Unit Learning Outcomes Program Learning Outcomes
On the successful completion of the Unit you should be able to:
Select and use the appropriate technique to analyse the structure of 1. Business Knowledge
multivariate data especially when individual data points are identified as 2. Critical Thinking
belonging to different classes (e.g. failure in credit repayments). Examined 3. Business Analysis and
in Assignment 1 and mid semester test. Problem-Solving
Apply multivariate data techniques using a training data set to predict 1. Business Knowledge
classifications for real data. 2. Critical Thinking
Examined in Assignment 1 and mid semester test. 3. Business Analysis and
Problem-Solving
Understand the characteristics of time-series data in order to analyse real 1. Business Knowledge
business data of this form. 2. Critical Thinking
Examined in Assignment 2 and final exam. 3. Business Analysis and
Problem-Solving
Select and use an appropriate technique to predict the future behaviour of 1. Business Knowledge
business variables of 2. Critical Thinking
interest, including prediction of discrete outcomes. Examined in 3. Business Analysis and
Assignment 2 and final exam. Problem-Solving

3. Assessment

Program
Assessment Individual/ Assessment Learning Due
Length Weight Due Date Closing Date
Name Group Conditions Outcomes Time
Assessed
100
Mid-term Exam Individual Compulsory 1, 2, 3 20% 9:00am 13-Sep-2017 13-Sep-2017
Minutes
Assignment 1 Group Compulsory 1, 2, 3, 4 No limit 20% 5:00pm 22-Sep-2017 06-Oct-2017
Assignment 2 Group Compulsory 1, 2, 3, 4 No limit 30% 5:00pm 03-Nov-2017 17-Nov-2017
150 Final Exam Final Exam
Final Exam Individual Compulsory 1, 2, 3 30%
minutes Period Period
Academic
Week 4
Honesty

For the meaning and operation of this table, see policy information in the box on the front page or click here

Assessment details

Mid-term Exam

Task Description
The mid-term exam will consist of written answer questions that will assess all aspects of this unit in weeks 1
to 7. The questions will test the students' ability to provide a complete description of the essential
characteristics of the methods covered, to make informed comparisons between these methods, to correctly
interpret and analyse statistical results, and to formulate substative conclusions based on these results. The
questions will also cover theoretical aspects of the material.

Assessment Criteria
1. Presentation, communication & style (written)
2. Methodology used is the most appropriate to the aims and objectives of the task
3. Problem solving

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4. Critical reasoning / critical thinking

Feedback - What, when and how feedback will be provided for this assessment
Both correct and incorrect answers in the student's answer script will be identified clearly. The exam paper
and answer books will NOT be returned to students. A feedback session will be scheduled for students to
review their own exam answer script and obtain more detailed feedback on their performance . Students may
schedule an appointment with the lecturer to discuss their performance in the mid-term exam and receive
further advice on mastering the contents of the unit.

Assignment 1

Task Description
The first assignment will examine your understanding of concepts presented in the first eight weeks of the unit.
The assignment task will measure students knowledge of regression methods for prediction, also testing their
ability to apply and evaluate these methods using Python. The assignment must be done in groups of 2-3
(there are no exceptions to this rule). This assignment will help you to develop valuable communication and
collaboration skills and allow students to contextualise their predictive analytics skills on a real applied
problem.

Assessment Criteria
The assessment criteria will be detailed in the rubric. The assignment will be marked for correctness,
understanding of underlying material, and quality of exposition and presentation.

Feedback - What, when and how feedback will be provided for this assessment
Incorrect answers in the assignment will be identified clearly and reasons may be given. The assignments will
be returned to students normally within 2 weks after the due date. Marks for this assessment task will be
posted on the LMS with comments. Students may book an appointment with the lecturer or tutor to discuss
their performance and obtain direct feedback.

Assignment 2

Task Description
The second group assignment will assess material covered in weeks 1 to 13 of this unit. The assignment will
involve two separate tasks that will measure students knowledge of classification and univariate time series
forecasting methods. The assignment must be done in groups of 2-3 (there are no exceptions to this rule).
This assignment will help you to develop valuable communication and collaboration skills and allow students
to contextualise their predictive analytics skills.

Assessment Criteria
The assessment criteria will be detailed in the rubric. The assignment will be marked for correctness,
understanding of underlying material, and quality of exposition and presentation.

Feedback - What, when and how feedback will be provided for this assessment
The assignments will be returned to students normally within 2 weks after the due date. Marks for this
assessment task will be posted on the LMS with comments. Students may book an appointment with the
lecturer or tutor to discuss their performance and obtain direct feedback.

Final Exam

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Task Description
The final exam will consist of written answer questions that will assess all aspects of this unit in weeks 1 to 13.
The assesment will measure students knowledge of regression and classification methods for prediction and
univariate time series forecasting methods. The questions will test the students' ability to provide a complete
description of the essential characteristics of the methods covered, to make informed comparisons between
these methods, to correctly interpret and analyse statistical results, and to formulate substative conclusions
based on these results. The questions will also cover theoretical aspects of the material.

Assessment Criteria
1. Presentation, communication & style (written)
2. Methodology used is the most appropriate to the aims and objectives of the task
3. Problem solving
4. Critical reasoning / critical thinking

Feedback - What, when and how feedback will be provided for this assessment
Both correct and incorrect answers in the student's answer script will be identified clearly. The final exam
paper and answer books will NOT be returned to students. An exam review session will take place in early
December for students to review their own exam answer script. Students may make an appointment with the
lecturer to discuss their performance in the final exam and in the whole unit and receive advice for choosing
advanced quantitative units for the coming semesters.

4. Other Resources for Students

All lectures and seminars are recorded and will be available within Blackboard for student use. Please note the
Business School does not own the system and cannot guarantee that the system will operate or that every
class will be recorded. Students should ensure they attend and participate in all classes.

The Science of Learning:

Studying effectively is essential for success in this unit. The only way to become a better problem solver is to
practice problem solving: think through and solve as many problems as you can independently. This entails
trying as best as possible to overcome difficulties instead of looking for the answers. The two books below
explain and summarise the lecturer's recommended approach for studying and learning.

Brown, Peter C., Henry L. Roediger III, and Mark A. McDaniel. Make it Stick: The Science of Sucessful
Learning. Belknap Press, 2014.

Oakley, Barbara. A Mind for Numbers: How to Excel at Math and Science (Even If You Flunked Algebra),
TarcherPerigee, 2014.

Maths in Business
The Business School provides a free series of workshops with student facilitators open to all students interested

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in mastering both basic and higher intermediate level mathematics. Workshops will be structured to strengthen
your knowledge of algebra before proceeding to calculus, probability and then progressing to refine your skills
in Excel. Students register for workshops online at: http://sydney.edu.au/business/study/services/maths/register
Email all enquiries about the Maths in Business program to: business.maths@sydney.edu.au

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5. Unit Schedule

Week List of Topics Assessments Due

1
Introduction to predictive modelling. Readings: ISL Chapters 1 and 2.
31 Jul 2017
2
Linear regression and statistical thinking. Readings: ISL Chapter 3.
7 Aug 2017
3
Model selection. Reading: ISL Chapter 5.
14 Aug 2017
4
Model inference. Reading: class material.
21 Aug 2017
5
Linear model selection and regularisation I. Reading: ISL Chapter 6.
28 Aug 2017
6
Linear model selection and regularisation II. Reading: ISL Chapters 6 and 7.
4 Sep 2017
7
Mid-term exam. Mid-term exam
11 Sep 2017
8
Classification I. Reading: ISL Chapter 4. Assignment 1
18 Sep 2017

Common week 25 Sep to 1 Oct

9
Classification II. Reading: ISL Chapter 4.
2 Oct 2017
10
Forecasting. FPP Chapters 1, 2 and 6.
9 Oct 2017
11
Exponential smoothing. Reading: FPP Chapter 7.
16 Oct 2017
12
ARIMA models I. Reading: FPP Chapter 8.
23 Oct 2017
13
ARIMA models II. Reading: FPP Chapter 8. Assignment 2
30 Oct 2017

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