Trump Administrations South China

Sea Policy: Rhetoric and Reality

Emeritus Professor Carlyle a. Thayer

Presentation to 3rd International Conference on the South China Sea
Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, September 2017
 Introduction
1. Legacy of Obama Administration
2. U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016
3. Trump Administration: Rhetoric
4. Trump Administration: Reality
5. Conclusion
 1. Legacy of Obama Administration
The United States is back!
Hillary Clinton (January 2009)
Engagement with ASEAN
U.S. has national interest in the South China Sea
Hillary Clinton (2010)
President Obama addresses Australian Parliament (2011)
rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific
Sustaining Global Leadership (U.S. Defense Department 2012)
 Legacy of Obama Administration
31 of 53 fast attack nuclear submarines deployed to Pacific
Two ASEAN-U.S. summits (2015 and 2016)
Sunnylands
Promotion of Trans Pacific Partnership
South China Sea Policy
U.S. Takes no sides in territorial disputes
Peaceful resolution of disputes international law & UNCLOS
Unimpeded lawful commerce
Freedom of navigation and overflight; presence patrols
Implementation of DOC and early conclusion of Code of Conduct
Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols
Four FONOPS under Obama Admnistration
 2. U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016
U.S. rebalance to Asia-Pacific not a major issue
Both candidates did not support TPP
Candidate Donald Trump
no coherent South China Sea policy
China: cheater, currency manipulator and theft of IP
Peace through strength strong military presence
China has built military fortress in South China Sea
I would use trade to negotiate
Republican Party Platform
 U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016
Japan and South Korea should pay more for U.S. forces
develop their own nuclear weapons
President-elect Trump:
Speaks to Taiwan President Tasi Ing-wen
China protests
Trump tweets: Did China ask us if it was OK to build a massive
military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I dont
think so.
Flip flops on One China Policy
 3. Trump Administration: Rhetoric
America First, Make America Great Again and Peace Through Strength
Confirmation Headings
Rex Tillerson Secretary of State block access
Written response to Senator Ben Cardin
James Mattis Secretary of Defense
Sean Spicer White House Spokesperson:
I think the U.S. is going to make sure that we protect out interests there [in
the South China Sea]. Its a question of if those islands are in fact in
international waters and not part of China proper, then yeah, were going to
make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by
one country.
 Trump Administration: Rhetoric
Trump signs Executive Order withdrawing from TPP (23/1/17)
Northeast Asia First
Defense Secretary visits South Korea and Japan (2/17)
Trump hosts Japans Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (2/17)
Mar-a-Lago dinner and North Korean ballistic missile launch
Secretary of State visits South Korea, Japan and China (3/17)\
Rebalance pass
[Rebalance] was a word that was used to describe Asia policy in the last administration
the new Trump Administration will have its own formulation
Susan Thornton, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs
Trump and Xi Jin-ping talk then meet after One China Policy affirmed
 Rhetoric:
Declaratory Policy on the South China Sea
Vice President Mike Pence
visits South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Australia (4/17)
U.S.-ASEAN Foreign Ministers meet in Washington (5/17)
Trumps hosts Vietnams Prime Minister Nguyn Xun Phc (5/17)
Secretary Mattis addresses Shangri-La Dialogue (6/17)
Australia-United States Ministerial Consultation (5/6/17)
Secretary Tillerson attends ASEAN meetings in Manila
Stops in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur
Secretary Mattis hosts Vietnams Defence Minister Ng Xun Lch
 7th Trilateral Strategic Dialogue
Ministerial Joint Statement, August 7, 2016
importance of upholding the rules-based order [and] called on all
states to respect freedom of navigation and overflight and other
internationally lawful uses of the seas, and reiterated that the three
countries will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international
law allows.
serious concerns over maritime disputes in the South China Sea
voiced their strong opposition to coercive unilateral actions that could
alter the status quo and increase tensions urged claimants to
refrain from land reclamation, construction of outposts, militarization
of disputed features, and undertaking unilateral actions that cause
permanent physical change to the marine environment in areas
pending delimitation.
 7th Trilateral Strategic Dialogue
Ministerial Joint Statement, Aug 7, 2016
all claimants to make and clarify their maritime claims in accordance
with UNCLOS and to resolve disputes peacefully
called on China and the Philippines to abide by the Arbitral Tribunal's
2016 Award as it is final and legally binding on both parties. The
ministers noted the significance of the UNCLOS dispute settlement
regime
urged ASEAN member states and China to fully and effectively
implement the DOC.
urged ASEAN member states and China to ensure that the COC be
finalized in a timely manner, and that it be legally binding,
meaningful, effective, and consistent with international law.
 4. Trump Administration: Reality
President Trump approves new Pentagon Plan and Schedule for
FONOPS
Originate with 7th Fleet Pacific Fleet Pacific Command Defense
Department concurrently National Security Council/State Department
USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group conducts presence patrol
Three FONOPS conducted
USS Dewey (DDG 105), Mischief Reef (24/5)
USS Stethem (2/7) Triton island (2/7)
USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) Mischief Reef (10/8)
Continuous Bomber Program
USAF B-1B Lancer bombers (8/6 and 6/7)
 5. Conclusion
Sharp divergence from campaign rhetoric
Three priorities:
Defeat Islamic State in Syria
Halt North Korean ballistic missile and nuclear tests
Renegotiate trade agreements
Northeast Asia First
Shore up U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan
Enlist Chinas support, threaten trade sanction
South China Sea does not command priority
 Conclusion
No National Security Policy (NSP) as mandated by Congress
Funding an issue once NSP is approved
Failure to make top appointments to Defense and State Departments
Transactional foreign policy set of bilateral relations
Multilateralism missing
Rebalance gone but no downgrade in U.S. Pacific force posture
Committed to long-war in Afghanistan
Fundamental national interests have not changed
Trade, investment, alliance ties, SLOCs
 Conclusion
There appears little difference in the tactical operations conducted by the
U.S. Navy in the South China Sea by the Trump Administration when
compared with the Obama Administration.
Frequency of FONOPS will be increased however
Both administrations state that the United States will continue to fly, sail
and operate wherever international law allow and conduct freedom of
navigation and operational presence patrols and overflights in and over the
South China Sea.
unlikely to have any impact on preventing China from further consolidating
its military presence in the South China Sea
Trump Administration policy on the South China Sea remains a work in
progress until National Security Policy approved
 Trump Administrations South
China Sea Policy: Rhetoric and
Reality
Emeritus Professor Carlyle a. Thayer
Presentation to 3rd International Conference on the South China Sea
Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, September 2017