Professional Documents
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3, pp 219240, 1998
Pergamon # 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
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NOMENCLATURE
Variables
219
220 N. Satani et al.
INTRODUCTION
Several phenomena were observed in Japan following the depopulation of the central
business districts in the 1960s. Retail facilities tended to be located in the suburbs and the
scale of the retail facilities tends to be larger. Shopping districts in the center of
metropolitan areas tend to be on the decline due to de-commercialization. Causes of the
de-commercialization include: (1) increased traffic congestion in the center of metropolitan
areas caused by the growth in car ownership; (2) soaring land prices in the center of
metropolitan areas; (3) the ease of opening large-sized stores by amending the law; and (4)
retail facilities are easily located in any zone under the Japanese zoning system. Political
issues are required to consider these issues, making it important to understand the location
trends of retail facilities.
Previous Studies
Reilly (1931) study of trading areas suggested the concept of population potential. Eq.
(1) shows that the size of the trading area in a city is assumed to be in proportion to the
city's population and inversely proportionate to the power b to the distance of the city.
Pa
Ga / : 1
Ca
A retail spatial interaction model was developed by Huff (1963) and Lakshumanan &
Hansen (1965). Their model adjusted the sales floor area by a power of l. The parameter l
represents the force of attraction. This modified Huff Model, shown in Eq. (2), takes the
sales floor area as a known quantity. From this it can then estimate the influence on the
trading area of an increase in the sales floor area.
Wj =Cij
Tij : 2
j Wj =Cij
Harris & Wilson (1978) proposed a model that estimated the spatial location of the
commercial floor area by introducing the concept of commercial floor investment into the
Modified Huff Model. Kim et al. (1991) empirically formulated indices for each land-use
by using statistical methods and proposed a land-use forecasting method that utilized these
methods. These studies provide the basis for the attempt in this study to develop a practical
model for estimating the location trends of retail facilities.
Commercial Facility Location Model 221
Research Objective
This study proposes a new commercial facility location model which combines the
Modified Huff Model and multiple regression analysis. The model deals specially with
retail trade and is applied to the Fukuoka metropolitan area of Japan.
This paper is organized as follows. The immediately following section explains the
model. The next section considers the applied example. Concluding comments are
provided in the final section.
Model Assumptions
Four assumptions were made in constructing the model. The model first assumes that
the sales floor area of retail facilities is influenced by the population in surrounding areas
and their accessibility to the facilities. Thus, the model uses the Modified Huff Model
which uses the population of surrounding areas and the distance from these areas as its
explanation variables.
Second, four ranks of retail facilities were assumed as shown in Figure 1. The size of the
purchasing area is assumed to be different for each rank: central commercial districts, sub-
central commercial districts, local commercial districts, and neighborhood commercial
districts. The influence of the purchasing area on the surrounding districts is also different
for each rank. Thus, the district and purchasing area for each rank was determined by
empirical investigations. The central commercial districts is influenced by the population
of the entire metropolitan area. The influence of the sub-central commercial districts is
about 5 km. The influence for local commercial districts is about 2 km. The influence of a
neighborhood commercial district is limited to a particular district and its neighboring
districts. Eq. (1) was used to determine the purchasing area by applying multiple regression
analysis.
Third, the model assumes that retail trade can be classified into either ``convenience
goods'' or ``shopping goods.'' This classification is used to determine the location, scale,
goods composition, and plans for retail stores. Convenience goods are the necessities of life
such as food which implies that these stores are used with high frequency. Shopping goods
refer to nonessential or luxury items which are dependent on one's taste such as clothes.
This implies that the frequency of using these stores is not as high as for convenience
goods. The model takes these behavioral patterns into consideration by identifying two
retail types.
Finally, the model includes a method which controls the overall trend by accumulating
the estimated values, and checking these values against the permissible values for each
statistical district.
Pi tTm
ij t: 3
The number of retail trade employees in j is proportional to the number of people who
go shopping to j. That is, the more customers who come, the more retail employees are
necessary. This expression is given in Eq. (4) as follows.
Em m
j t / i Pi tTij t: 4
Commercial Facility Location Model 223
Km
i is assumed to be a fixed number. Then Eq. (5) allows the number of employees to be
estimated for an assumed value of Wjm.
Em m m
j t i Ki Pi tTij t: 5
The procedure for computing Kim is shown in the following equation. It assumes that the
number of retail employees per customer changes over time.
m m
Kmi Ei t=Pi t = Ei t 1=Pi t 1 :
The time period, t can now be set to the target period, and Wm replaced by Wm t 1
and DWm . This allows Tmij t in period t to be estimated by using Eq. (2) and an assumed
224 N. Satani et al.
sales floor area increase (DWm . Furthermore, the number of employees in period t, Em j t,
can be estimated by multiplying Tm ij t by P i t.
Estimating the number of employees by Multiple Regression Analysis. As was mentioned
above, the sphere of the purchasing area is classified into four ranks: central commercial
district, sub-central commercial district, local commercial district, and neighborhood
commercial district. The influence of the purchasing area on surrounding districts is
different for each rank as determined by empirical investigation. This was done by
applying the Gravity Model shown in Eq. (1). This assumes that the number of employees
in j is proportional to the population potential of districts around j. The influence of retail
facilities in j on the population in i can be explained by this concept. If there are great
differences between the areas near each district, the influence for the potential by the inner
distance is great. Therefore, the model uses multiple regression analysis to define a given
district as the first member of Eq. (6a) and the surrounding districts as the second member.
The first member of this equation is used to adjust the influence by the area of the given
statistical district. The second member is the population potential inside the purchasing
area for each rank as described above.
Pi t Pj t
Em m
i t a1 m
l am
l j2l
m
m a0 : 6a
Cii Cji
The growth of the employment of type m in district i per person is Kim. Eq. (6b) takes
this adjustment into consideration by using Kim on each district.
( )
m
m
m Ki Pi t m
Km
j Pj t
m
m Ei 0obs
Ei t a1 m
l al j2l m
a0 : 6b
Cii Cji Em
i 0est
Um m
i tUi t1
am t tt1 ;
8
Um m m
i t ai t Ui t 1;
Wmi t Wmi t1
Em t am
i t Em t1 :
i i
The original unit of type m at period t can, therefore, be estimated for each district by
applying Eq. (8).
Fi t 1 Wi t
Ri t : 11
Li t 1
If increased floor area ratio is larger than the control value, the model goes to [STEP 2]
and adjusts the original unit in the district, and then estimates the sales floor area again. If
226 N. Satani et al.
the ratio is still larger than the control value, it considers the possibility of changing the
regulations for planned big projects, revises the planned data, goes back to [STEP 1], and
estimates the number of employees again.
This completes the description of the model.
The model will now be applied to the Fukuoka metropolitan area. This area consists of
seven cities, 14 towns, and a village around Fukuoka City, the central business city on
Kyushu Island, located in the southern part in Japan. The population of this area was
about two million in 1996 and the sales floor area of retail facilities in this area was about
2.1 million square meters in 1994. The districts in the Fukuoka area are shown in Figure 3.
It is assumed that each district is represented as a node and each node is linked with
neighboring nodes to make up the network structure. The network for the Fukuoka
metropolitan area is shown in Figure 4.
Input Data
The required input data are shown in Table 1. The population, area, number of
employees of each type, sales floor area of each type, road distance between neighboring
districts (m), the railway distance (expressed in terms of the road distance), and the OD
(Origin and Destination) information for each type of retail good are required. These data
were classified by the Japan industrial standard classification as is shown in Table 2. The
total floor area, the land-use area, and the controlled floor area ratio are used to check the
permissible values in [STEP4]. The planned data includes: (1) the population in 1995, 2000,
2005, and 2010; (2) the sales floor area of large-sized stores which are planned until the
year 2000; and (3) and the railway distance by subway number three which will open in
2006.
Parameter Estimation
Required parameters were first estimated by using the observed data for 1994 and the
Modified Huff Model and multiple regression analysis.
Parameters for the Modified Huff Model. The l and k parameters in Eq. (2) must first be
estimated. In addition, because the time distance will be shortened by improvements to the
railway network, a time-distance parameter a is used to estimate the relationship between
the road time distance and the railway time distance. The l, k, and a parameters were
228 N. Satani et al.
1 Population * * * * * * * *
2 Area *
3 Employees Convenience * * * *
4 Employees Shopping * * * *
5 Sales oor area Convenience * * *
6 Sales oor area Shopping * * *
7 Road distance * * * * *
8 Rail-way distance * * * * *
9 OD Convenience *
10 OD Shopping *
11 Total oor area *
12 Land-use area *
13 Controlled oor area ratio * *
estimated using Eq. (12) given by Hagishima et al. (1987) and minimizing the value of ' in
this equation.
The estimation process for the l, k and a parameters for convenience goods is shown in
Figure 5. The corresponding process for estimating the shopping-goods parameters is
shown in Figure 6. The procedure calculates l and k first by fixing a, then a is calculated by
fixing l and k. The parameters were estimated again by repeating this procedure until the
values converged. The parameter l for estimating population potential in the next section
has this value.
Commercial Facility Location Model 229
Estimation of l, k and a
Type Parameter
a
Origin Destination 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Sum
No. Name Higashi-ku Hakata-ku Chuo-ku Minami-ku Nishi-ku Jonan-ku Sawara-ku Chikushi area Kasuya Munakata Itoshima
area area area
100 Higashi-ku EST 0.862 0.081 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.042 0.001 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.893 0.012 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.059 0.000 0.000 1.000
200 Hakata-ku EST 0.044 0.786 0.055 0.050 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.057 0.005 0.000 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.644 0.078 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.127 0.057 0.000 0.000 1.000
300 Chuo-ku EST 0.003 0.063 0.827 0.019 0.001 0.069 0.017 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.012 0.863 0.041 0.000 0.036 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
400 Minami-ku EST 0.002 0.062 0.059 0.818 0.001 0.033 0.002 0.023 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.000 0.049 0.848 0.004 0.057 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
500 Nishi-ku EST 0.005 0.013 0.015 0.007 0.820 0.009 0.087 0.004 0.003 0.000 0.037 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.948 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.009 1.000
N. Satani et al.
600 Jonan-ku EST 0.001 0.006 0.128 0.043 0.002 0.781 0.037 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.000 0.142 0.000 0.000 0.744 0.115 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
700 Sawara-ku EST 0.002 0.008 0.027 0.006 0.029 0.029 0.895 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.000 0.079 0.008 0.045 0.071 0.797 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
Chikushi EST 0.002 0.071 0.012 0.144 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.762 0.002 0.000 0.000 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.021 0.020 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.934 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
Kasuya EST 0.143 0.030 0.010 0.007 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.017 0.767 0.019 0.000 1.000
area OBS 0.058 0.037 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.853 0.018 0.000 1.000
Munakata EST 0.014 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.084 0.887 0.000 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.885 0.000 1.000
Itoshima EST 0.007 0.016 0.016 0.009 0.085 0.007 0.018 0.006 0.005 0.001 0.830 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.255 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.726 1.000
Table 5. Comparison of the Observed and Estimated Values (Shopping Goods)
Origin Destination 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Sum
No. Name Higashi-ku Hakata-ku Chuo-ku Minami-ku Nishi-ku Jonan-ku Sawara-ku Chikushi Kasuya Munakata Itoshima
area area area area
100 Higashi-ku EST 0.263 0.092 0.391 0.025 0.019 0.008 0.034 0.064 0.074 0.023 0.007 1.000
OBS 0.222 0.101 0.614 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.005 0.051 0.000 0.000 1.000
200 Hakata-ku EST 0.028 0.215 0.557 0.036 0.011 0.006 0.024 0.099 0.018 0.004 0.003 1.000
OBS 0.012 0.193 0.602 0.032 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.138 0.019 0.000 0.000 1.000
300 Chuo-ku EST 0.012 0.057 0.770 0.028 0.014 0.016 0.057 0.033 0.008 0.003 0.003 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.022 0.890 0.016 0.000 0.008 0.063 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
400 Minami-ku EST 0.019 0.089 0.482 0.173 0.019 0.022 0.037 0.131 0.017 0.006 0.005 1.000
OBS 0.008 0.036 0.751 0.171 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
500 Nishi-ku EST 0.026 0.057 0.362 0.028 0.241 0.017 0.118 0.071 0.023 0.012 0.045 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.026 0.589 0.007 0.184 0.000 0.183 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 1.000
600 Jonan-ku EST 0.019 0.059 0.474 0.058 0.043 0.130 0.118 0.069 0.016 0.006 0.008 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.010 0.756 0.019 0.000 0.072 0.143 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
700 Sawara-ku EST 0.020 0.052 0.382 0.031 0.101 0.031 0.285 0.062 0.017 0.007 0.012 1.000
OBS 0.000 0.005 0.496 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.486 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
Commercial Facility Location Model
Chikushi EST 0.015 0.072 0.230 0.042 0.013 0.008 0.023 0.568 0.019 0.006 0.005 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.038 0.637 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.313 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
Kasuya EST 0.090 0.084 0.351 0.030 0.022 0.009 0.038 0.127 0.204 0.037 0.009 1.000
area OBS 0.020 0.099 0.524 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.022 0.330 0.006 0.000 1.000
Munakata EST 0.059 0.054 0.260 0.025 0.026 0.009 0.037 0.083 0.125 0.307 0.014 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.082 0.397 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.108 0.413 0.000 1.000
Itoshima EST 0.030 0.055 0.310 0.029 0.085 0.014 0.066 0.083 0.029 0.017 0.283 1.000
area OBS 0.000 0.038 0.536 0.000 0.100 0.000 0.077 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.249 1.000
231
232 N. Satani et al.
1=2
1 2
' ij Tij ODij : 12
n
The results are shown in Table 3. For convenience goods, it was estimated that l was
1.05, k was 3.57, and a was 1.53. For shopping goods, it was estimated that l was 1.49, k
was 1.41, and a was 1.01. The comparison of the observed and estimated values is shown in
Table 4 (for convenience goods) and Table 5 (for shopping goods).
The data reveals a large gap between both values for Jonan-ku. The purchasing ratio for
convenience goods in the same district is high, about 80%. For shopping goods, the ratio is
very high in Chuo-ku, and lower in other districts. Two points can be made on the basis of
these results. Firstly, convenience-goods shopping is extremely attenuated as the distance
increases. Secondly, as the sales floor area accumulates, shopping goods purchases are
attracted into a district.
Parameters for the Multiple Regression Analysis. The a1, ak, and a0 parameter in Eq. (6a)
must also be estimated. As mentioned previously, four district ranks were defined.
Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the parameters for each rank. The
analysis was done three times, using data for 1988, 1991, and 1994. The results for 1994
were found to be best. The parameters and the multiple correlation coefficients for each
rank are shown in Table 6. The multiple regression models were found to be very effective.
Estimation of parameters
population for this period according to steps shown in Figure 2. The value was then
estimated by applying the checks on the permissible value. The sales floor areas were then
projected to the year 2010 at five years intervals from 1995.
Modified Huff Model. Table 7 shows the estimated values for the Modified Huff Model.
The observed values for Fukuoka City in 1994, were 374,693 m2 for convenience goods,
954,205 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 1,328,898 m2. The projected values for 2010
were 527,366 m2 for convenience goods, 1,337,324 m2 for shopping goods, and 1,864,690
Sub Total in Fukuoka City 374,693 954,205 1,328,898 527,366 1,337,324 1,864,690
Chikushi Area 87,753 223,384 311,137 128,446 356,593 485,039
Kasuya Area 60,358 154,196 214,554 92,381 239,311 331,692
Munakata Area 34,312 89,140 119,452 53,284 136,376 189,660
Itoshima Area 23,957 47,344 71,301 52,160 70,191 122,351
Sub Total around Fukuoka City 206,380 510,064 716,444 326,271 802,471 1,128,742
Total in Fukuoka Urban Area 581,073 1,464,269 2,045,342 853,637 2,139,795 2,993,432
Sub Total in Fukuoka City 374,693 954,209 1,328,898 517,183 1,265,202 1,782,385
Chikushi Area 87,793 223,384 311,137 140,019 392,499 532,518
Kasuya Area 60,358 154,196 214,554 88,521 245,460 333,982
Munakata Area 34,312 85,140 119,452 40,204 127,127 167,331
Itoshima Area 23,957 47,344 71,301 25,776 55,502 81,277
Sub Total around Fukuoka City 206,380 510,064 716,444 294,521 820,587 1,115,108
Total in Fukuoka Urban Area 581,073 1,464,269 2,045,342 811,704 2,085,789 2,897,493
Commercial Facility Location Model 235
m2 for the total. Increases of about 15 ha for convenience goods, about 38 ha for shopping
goods, or a total of about 53 ha are expected.
The observed values in the neighborhood of Fukuoka City for 1994 are 206,380 m2 for
convenience goods, 510,064 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 716,444 m2. The
projected values for 2010 are 326,271 m2 for convenience goods, 802,471 m2 for shopping
goods, and 1,128,742 m2 for the total. Increases of about 12 ha for convenience goods,
about 29 ha for shopping goods, or a total of about 41 ha are expected.
An increase of about 94 ha is expected for the entire Fukuoka metropolitan area. This is
a larger value than was obtained by using Multiple Regression Analysis, which suggests
that it is an upper limit. It is expected that an increase of the sales floor area in Fukuoka
City is larger than it is around the city. As was mentioned above, the value obtained by the
Modified Huff Model was relatively low near the border of the study area.
Multiple Regression Analysis. Table 8 shows the estimated values for the multiple
regression analysis. The estimated values for Fukuoka City 2010, were 517,183 m2 for
convenience goods, 1,265,202 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 1,782,385 m2. Increases
of about 14 ha for convenience goods, about 31 ha for shopping goods, and about 45 ha
for the total are expected. The projected values for 2010 in the neighborhood of Fukuoka
City were 294,521 m2 for convenience goods, 820,587 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of
1,115,108 m2. Increases of about 9 ha for convenience goods, about 31 ha for shopping
goods, and about 40 ha for the total are expected.
A total increase of about 85 ha is expected for the entire Fukuoka metropolitan area. It
is expected that the increase of the shopping floor area outside Fukuoka City is almost the
same as within the city. This shows a drastic increase in the shopping floor area in the
suburbs.
City, and Onojo City. They are districts whose population increases in recent years make
them attractive for convenience shopping.
The observed shopping area values for shopping goods are shown in Figure 12. This
figure indicates that there are high density shopping districts near the border between
Chuo-ku and Hakata-ku; however, most of them are in Fukuoka City. These districts are
dispersed than those for the convenient goods.
The projected values for 2010 are shown in Figure 13. This figure indicates that Kasuga
City has a high shopping density as was the case for convenience goods. The high density
area extends to the north-east area of Koga town and Shingu town.
The growth rate from 1994 to 2010 is shown in Figure 14. This figure indicates the
districts in which the growth rate would increase the most and are located far from the
CBD. Compared to the convenience goods, there are high growth districts in more distant
areas such as Dazifu city and Chikushino City.
CONCLUSIONS
This study developed a simulation model for studying radical changes in the location of
retail facilities and applied the model to the Fukuoka metropolitan area. The study results
suggest the following five conclusions. First, the Modified Huff Model can be used to
estimate the number of employees by assuming that the number of employees is in
proportion to the number of inhabitants who go shopping in a district. Second, multiple
regression analysis can be used to estimate the number of employees by assuming that the
number of employees is proportional to the population in a district and neighboring
districts, and inversely proportional to the time distance between the districts. Third, the
estimated parameters for each retail type can be used to estimate location trends for each
type of retail good. Fourth, the results of the application to the Fukuoka metropolitan
area indicate that the model has high validity. Finally, the model results for 2010 suggested
that the demand for retail facilities will increase substantially in the suburbs.
240 N. Satani et al.
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