Double Degree MSc 7

GEO-INFORMATION FOR SPATIAL PLANNING AND

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
Graduate School Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Phone/Fax. (0274) 564239 UGM
Website http://www.geo.ugm.ac.id, www.geoinfopasca.ugm.ac.id and
http://www.itc.nl/pub/study/programmes/joint-educations

GROUP ASSIGNMENT

MODUL A GEOSCIENCES AND ITS APPLICATION

CALCULATING B-VALUE AND MAXIMUM PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION
(PGA) VALUE IN JAPAN 1973 2017

LECTURER:

Prof. Dr. Kirbani Sri Brotopuspito

By:
Muhammad Arif Yusuf
Rahma Andini Pratiwi
Trida Ridho Fariz
Yoga Darmajati
Zulfa Qonita Reni Wulandari

SEPTEMBER 2017
 A. Introduction

Japan is situated in a complicated plate boundary region where three subduction zones
meet. Two of these subduction zones run parallel to the east coast of Japan. To the south, the
Philippine plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian plate, whilst to the north, the Pacific
Plate is being subducted beneath the North American plate. With all of these tectonic plates
jostling against each other, it is no surprise that Japan has a long history of catastrophic
earthquakes.
Earthquake is defined as the result of a sudden release of stored energy in
the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes may manifest
themselves by a shaking or displacement of the ground which can cause damage to
the building that usually causes casualties. The probability of damaging earthquake ground
motions at the site under evaluation is called Seismic Hazard. Seismic hazard is distinct from
"seismic risk" which is defined as the potential for damages and casualties to the built
environment. A region may have high seismic hazards, but very little seismic risk if the area
is sparsely populated or if buildings are well designed to resist seismic forces. On the other
hand, a highly populated area with moderate seismic hazards may have a high seismic risk if
the built environment is highly vulnerable to earthquake damages. Determine seismic hazard
degree of a certain place is usually used Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Maximum value.
PGA Maximum is a maximum ground movement velocity happened in a given location
measured because of earthquake occurrence in a given time and considering magnitude,
hypocenter and ground dominant period. Unlike the Richter magnitude scale, it is not a measure
of the total size of the earthquake, but rather how hard the earth shakes in a given geographic
area. PGA is usually expressed as a percentage of g (the acceleration of gravity). At 100% g
of horizontal acceleration, unbolted objects (such as a file cabinet) move horizontally as if they
were dropped from the ceiling or as if the room were turned on its side, or furniture and contents
are tossed around and there is great damage. For buildings, 100% g horizontal acceleration
adds a horizontal or lateral force equal to the building's weight. PGA value depends on
the distance between epicenter and location, depth of epicenter and magnitude.
The magnitude of an earthquake is the most commonly used parameter of earthquake
size. The statistical distribution of sizes for a group of earthquakes is complicated. (Gutenberg
and Richter, 1944 in Kayal, 2006) provided the simplest earthquake occurrence of frequency-
magnitude relation, which describes a power law relation:

Log10N = a bM

Where N is the number of earthquakes in a group having a magnitude larger than

M, a is a constant and b is the slope of the log-linear relation. The estimated slope of the log-
linear relation or the coefficient b is known as b-value.
The b-value should be estimated carefully as the self-similarity may break with the
following three stages: smaller events (M<3.0), medium events (3<M<Msaturate), and larger
events (M>Msaturate). The smaller events may give lower b-value because of a shortage of
recorded smaller events, while bigger events may give higher b-value because of the saturation
of the magnitude (Scholz, 1990 in Kayal, 2006). (Pacheco et al. ,1992 in Kayal, 2006) found
that a break in self-similarity, from small to large earthquakes, occur at a point where
the dimension of the event equals the down-dip width of the seismogenic layer.

B. Method
1. Obtaining earthquake occurrence data recorded correspondent to the observed area.
The data can be downloaded from NEIC USGS sites on the internet. The sites
provide data such as :
Time of occurrence ( Year, Month, Date, Time of origin)
Geographic location
Depth
Magnitude
2. Determining b value
In this study, the b-values are estimated using the least-square fit method and
the maximum likelihood method. In the least-square fit method, the log values of the cumulative
number of earthquakes (N) are plotted with magnitudes (M).

B-value can be determined using the relation between magnitude and frequency for a
group of earthquakes. Magnitude of an earthquake is the most commonly used parameter of
earthquake size. The distribution sizes for a group of earthquakes are complicated.
 Gutenberg and Richter (1944) In Kayals research (2006), provided a simple frequency
magnitude relation, which describes a power law relation:

Log N = a bM (1)

N : number of earthquakes in a group (frequency)

a : constant
b : slope of the log linear relation (b value)
M : earthquake magnitude

In this study, magnitude classified into 3 classes, small earthquake (4 5), middle
earthquake (5.01 6), and big earthquake (6.01 7), which is the frequency is achieved by
counting the occurance of earthquakes in a specific range. The b value can be known by set the
equation (1) into graphic to shows the correlation. A linear trend line by using least square
curve fitting should be developed to obtain b-value from its equation

3. Procedure to determine PGA max value as follows:

a. Sampling data, Sample data are obtained by using grid point 0.5 degrees (55.5 Km
square) interval to cover the region and develop 3.485 grid points. Sampling is done by
considering epicenter, hypocentrum and earthquake depth.
b. Counting R value (distance from focus/hypocenter of earthquake to the observed
location) by using formula :
R = [(x1-x2)^2+(y1-y2)^2+(z1-z2)^2]^0.5
R = Distance from observed point to earthquake focus
c. Counting PGA value by using formula :
PGA = b1[10^b2M][(R+25)^(-b3)]
b1 = 472.3
b2 = 0.278
b3 = 1.301
M = Magnitude
R = Distance from observed point to earthquake focus
d. Plotting the PGA Max to Map, to develop PGA contour map used PGA max value in
each observed grid points and interpolate them using GIS software. We divide PGA
max value range into 20 interval scale to develop contour map.
C. Result and Discussion

The distribution of magnitude and frequency is analyzed by Gutenberg-Richter's theory

that the value of b is directly related to the tectonic characteristics of each region and therefore
may indicate the seismotectonic parameters of the region. Distribution of seismicity can be
known by qualitatively and quantitatively through statistics to determine the possibility of an
earthquake for a certain magnitude and the level of activity of earthquake.

Tabel 1. Frequency and Magnitude Interval

Interval Intensity Log n
4.00-5.00 2992 3.47596159
5.01 - 6.00 440 2.64345268
6.01 - 7 53 1.72427587

Frequency - Magnitude Relation of Earthquake

in Japan 1973 - 2017
4
3.5 y = -0.8758x + 4.3662
R = 0.9992
Frequency (Log n)

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4.00-5.00 5.01 - 6.00 6.01 - 7
Magnitude

Figure 1. Relationship of log linear frequency and magnitude of Japan earthquake in 1973
2017

Based on the graph in figure 1, the value of b is 0.8758. This value indicates high seismic
activity in the observation area (Japan). This is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter
calculation, which is 0.59 - 1.2 for areas with high seismic activity. This high seismic activity
occurs because Japan is located at a meeting of several plates. Japan lies in an area where 4
tectonic plates meet each other. The plates are the Eurasian, North American, Pacific, and
Philippine plates. The mainland of Japan lies in above two tectonic plates, namely the North
American plate and the Eurasian plate. The meeting of these two plates is in the middle of the
Honshu Islands.

Figure 2. Tectonic Plate Meeting in Japan: Philippine (1), Pacific (2), North America (3), and
Eurasia (4). Source: BBC.com

Determination of B value one of them by using statistical analysis, where this value can be
used to determine vulnerability that only consider the level of seismic of the area. Another
parameter used to determine earthquake resistance in an area is PGA.
These values are vary in different earthquake and even in a different location within one
earthquake event. The different value in an event depends on a number of factors, including
the geometry of fault, the magnitude, the depth, the distance from the epicenter, the duration
of shake cycle, and the subsurface condition (geology). PGA value of an area can be used to
approximate seismic hazard zone of the area.
PGA analysis of Japan includes the spatial distribution of the PGA value inside the
continent, the comparison of one area to another with difference PGA value, and the factors
that affect it. PGA data is represented with map as spatial analysis, and also with the database
of seismic data series measured from 1973 until 2017 and in every location inside Japan.
According to the calculation, the maximum and minimum PGA values are 225.7 gal and
14.28 gal respectively.
Figure 3. Distribution map of Japan PGA value in 1973-2017
From the map in Figure 3, we can see that the highest PGA value is located on Honshu Island.
This high value is due to the encounter of two tectonic plates, namely the North American plate
and the Eurasian plate. The meeting of these two plates is in the middle of the Honshu Islands
(Figure 2). From the map above, can be seen which areas have a high PGA value. The higher
of PGA value is directly proportional to the risk of seismicity. Areas with high PGAs is
Kumamoto, Oita, Shimane, Tottori, Nagano, Miyagi, some areas in Hokkaido, etc.

D. Conclusion
1. The calculation of B value on the Japan earthquakes from 1973-2017 is 0.8758, is an
active seismic region and the probability of an earthquake with a larger magnitude is
quite high.
2. The result of PGA calculation is 225.47 gal, which has the intensity of ground vibration
of V-VII MMI.
3. The areas of Kumamoto, Oita, Shimane, Tottori, Nagano, Miyagi, and some areas of
Hokkaido are suspected to have high seismic hazard potential.

Reference

Brotopuspito, Kirbani S. 2008. Percepatan Getaran Tanah Maksimum (Peak Ground

Acceleration) Akibat Gempabumi. Laboratorium Geofisika. FMIPA UGM.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/

Kayal, J.R. 2006. Earthquake Magnitude, Intensity, Energy, Power Law Relations and Source
Mechanism. Sri Lanka Training Program in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings.
https://escweb.wr.usgs.gov/share/mooney/training%20courses.html

Sunardi, Bambang et al. 2013. Analisis Periodesitas dan Perubahan Tingkat

Kegempaan Wilayah Jawa Barat Berbasis Statistik. Seminar Statistika Nasional.