Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Australia's Refugee
oResettlement' Plan

Carlyle A. Thayer
Septemb er 261 2017

We request your insights on an analysis piece we are preparing today. We viewed

your interview on ABC TV about the refugee deal between Australia and China being
brought under scrutiny again in the wake of the spiraling political climate in Phnom
Penh.

We request that you expand on the following issues:

Q1. Do you think Cambodia should be shut down as an option for refugees on Nauru?
(lt's three years today since the agreement was signed).

ANSWER: The Australian Government should move without delay to end the so-called
resettlement program with Cambodia. Hun Sen is undermining the foundations of
liberal democracy enshrined in the Cambodian Constitution of 1993 [l was a UN-
accredited electoral observer at that time]. So far only seven persons have been
resettled in Cambodia from Nauru and only three remain in country. These refugees
do not have a guaranteed future nor a commitment from the Government that they
will be protected. Cambodia was picked as a country for resettlement to resolve the
Australian government's policy of refusing entry into Australia by asylum seekers who
came by sea. lt was the only country at that time open to a deal. lt is the United States'
that has picked up the slack accepting 54 so far, a mere drop in the bucket.
Q2. Does Australia have an obligation to speak up/intervene in the case of montagnard
asylum seeking in Cambodia due to be sent home? Or would it appear hypocritical to
do so (given Australia's refugee record), not to mention the diplomatic implications?
ANSWER: While Australia is not a direct party to the montagnard case, as a self-
respecting member of the international community it should protest the involuntary
return of asylum seekers to the country from which they fled. Silence is only
acquiescence. However, the montagnard situation has implications. There is nothing
to stop the Cambodian government from repatriating Syrians or Rohingyas asylum
seekers from Nauru back to their country of origin if it suits the Government. Besides
these considerations, Cambodia's descent into dictatorship and autocratic rule
completely undermines any understanding that the Hun Sen regime will provide the
necessary credentials for permanent settlement with a path to citizenship and
opportunities for meaningful employment to former residents of the Nauru.
 23

Australia has denied entry for asylum seekers; it has not forcibly repatriated any as
Cambodia has done. The hypocrisy lies in the squalid conditions in the camps in Nauru
to which Australia has forced asylum seekers to live in.
Q3. ls it at all likely that Australia would say or do anything to help these Montagnard
refugees? Why or why not?
ANSWER: Australia is currently hostingthe2+2talks (vice ministers of foreign ministry-
+ defence) with Vietnam and bilateral relations are likely to be elevated by next year.
I doubt Canberra thinks now is the right time for Australian to inject itself in this
controversy. Vietnam, after all, argues that the montagnards are not genuine refugees
with a well-founded fear of persecution because of their ethnicity. They are viewed as
separatists.
Human rights issues in Vietnam have been dealt with very quietly by Australia. The
most I would expect from the Australian government would be for the Ambassador to
Cambodia to call on the Foreign Ministry to urge Cambodia not to forcibly send the
montaBnards back to Vietnam and to assist in their resettlement in a third country.

Q4. lt appears to us that in both cases - Cambodia and Australia - the refugees have
been used merely as political pawns to appease either Vietnam or appease certain
political/social groups. What do you think?
ANSWER: Refugees resettlement in Cambodia was a godsend for the Australian
government because its policy of pushing asylum seekers into camps in Nauru and
Manus island seemed at a dead end. With the agreement with Cambodia the
Australian government could claim there was a solution in sight. The resettlement
came with a performance rate spread over a number of years, payment for each
person resettled. At the same time, Australia added a sweetener, S40 million in aid.
So yes it was political. Cambodia gives lip service to its obligations under the UN
refugee convention; it has forcibly repatriated Uighur and Montagnard asylum seekers
back to China and Vietnam respectively. Why should the Hun Sen regime provide
assurances to asylum seekers while at the same time it is undermining rule of law
domestically? Cambodia's dependence on China means that Hun Sen feels impervious
to outside criticism. ln this sense Hun Sen is right, Australia has little leverage. The
Australian government has used its tough asylum seeker policy and resettlement
program to wedge the opposition Australian Labor Party whose supposedly soft
policies led to a large influx of asylum seekers by sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Australia's Refugee 'Resettlement'

Plan," Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief, September 26, 2077. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
China's Influence in the Lower
Mekong States
Carlyle A. Thayer
Septemb er 28,2017

We request your assessment of the following issues:

L. Over the past few years China's influence in countries such as Cambodia, Thailand
and Laos has increased significantly. What should we expect for2OL8, when it comes
to China's strong presence in the Lower Mekong countries?
ANSWER: ln 2018 we will see China step up its ambit Belt and Road lnitiative (BRl) in
mainland Southeast Asia. China will fund infrastructure development in Thailand,
Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The net effect will be to increase Chinese commercial
and political influence in these countries. Mainland Southeast Asia will be drawn
more into China's orbit.
China's continued development of dams and hydropower in the upper Mekong -
Lancang River - will impact on the Lower Mekong countries. They will have no choice
but to cooperate with China to mitigate the environmental impact downstream.
Cambodia has already and will continue to embrace China, not least because
national elections will be held in 2OL8.lt is possible that Thailand will hold elections
in 2018. Trump's invitation to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha to visit the White.
House signals that the Obama Administration's period of cold shoulder after the
20L4 coup may be over. This will give the Thais greater room for manoeuvre. Laos
will acquiesce but there is evidence of a push back against growing Chinese
influence.
The Trump Administration has not made clear what its intentions are regarding
Southeast Asia including relations with ASEAN and continued support for the Lower
Mekong lnitiative. lf the Trump Administration fails to develop a strategy to support
U.S. interests in mainland Southeast Asia, this will abet China's drive to create client
states.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "China's lnfluence in the Lower Mekong

States," Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , September 28, 2077. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Cambodia: Chinese Influence -v-
the U.S. and EU

Carlyle A. Thayer
October 8,2017

We are working on a report that involves China's influence in Cambodia, and request
your thoughts on the subject.
Q1. lt appears that China support for the CPP [Cambodian People's Party], is not a
carte blanche endorsement for Hun Sen. What signs has China given that it's willing
to back another CPP leader if Hun Sen can't protect China's interests?
ANSWER: The context for my evaluation is the 2013 national elections, the set back
for the CPP and unrest and street demonstrations that followed. Hun Sen went to
the Chinese Embassy immediately after the elections. My understanding from
diplomatic sources was that China committed itself to supporting the CPP as long as
it could guarantee that Chinese economic interests were not harmed. Fast forward
to 2017, Hun Sen has done all that has been asked of him. Chinese investments and
businesses are in safe hands. Hun Sen is Beijing's wunderkind. China presently is not
looking elsewhere in the CPP.
Q2. There seems to be talk in Cambodian press of trade restrictions from the EU or
US, but has that prospect been seriously proposed by the West?

ANSWER: Both the EU and the US are in a bind because their aid is targeted at the'
population and improving human security. Their aid does not prop up the Hun Sen
regime, Trade restrictions are another matter and I doubt the EU would sacrifice
whatever influence they have now. They are looking to try to influence the 2018
elections to make them "free and fair". Triggering trade restrictions would
precipitate Hun Sen sanctions and the EU would not be able to influence next year's
elections. US trade restrictions are up to the Congress as Donald Trump is hardly
moved by events in Cambodia.
Q3. We are also interested in your assessment of the proposal for aq Cambodian
think tank with China to investigate the causes of "colour revolutions." ls this an
attempt to paint the CNRP [Cambodian National Rescue Party] as radical and if so is
it justified?

ANSWER: The think tank on colour revolutions is a ploy to attract Chinese funding
and ingratiate Cambodia further with China. lt is a forgone conclusion that the think
tank will conclude that Cambodian opposition figures have been influenced by
foreign countries seeking to overthrow the Hun Sen regime. This is just another step
to delegitimise the opposition prior to next year's elections. The idea of a colour
 2

revolution is pure confection. Cambodia is not that important to Trump's USA to

even merit support for a colour revolution. Hun Sen has ranted against the US all
year and the issue has not appeared on Trump's radar screen. No tweets. The irony
is Trump castigates Venezuela, opposes nation-building and presumably democracy
in Afghanistan and ignores Cambodia. lrony may not be the right word but
ind ifference comes close.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Chinese lnfluence -v- the U.S. and
EU," Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief, October 8,2017. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing
list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.