Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea: Test Fires Another
Ballistic Missile
Carlyle A. Thayer
September L5, 2017

This is getting repetitive, but would you have any further thoughts following the
DPRK's latest missile test over Japan? The fact is that the DPRK [Democratic People's
Republic of Korea] is a nuclear weapons power but we seem constantly to go
through this rigmarole with the US refusing to accept it.
We request your assessment of this issue.
ANSWER The latest North Korean ballistic missile test over Hokkaido, Japan is an
illustration that Kim Jong-un is adept at being provocative but just short of any red
line that Trump might impose. With every missile test North Korean learns more for
the next round. These tests demonstrate that UN sanctions are not a quick fix. The
bottom line is that there is no way President Trump can change the fact that North
Korea is a de facto nuclear state, much like lndia was in L998 when it set off its
nuclear device. Trump needs a strategy to manage this situation in the long run by
increasing sanctions gradually and wait until they take effect. At some point all the
six parties involved (North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the United
States) will have to return to the negotiating table.
Trump's rhetoric that "it (North Korea armed with a ballistic missile and nuclear
warhead capable to reaching the continental United States) won't happen" has been
exposed as a bluff. North Korea has no incentive to attackthe U.S. and be destroyed
in the nuclear holocaust that will follow. North Korea has every incentive to have a
nuclear option available to resist U.S, threats. Kim Kong-un is not a madman, he is a
cunning survivor.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "North Korea: Test Fires Another Ballistic
Missile," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief , September t5,2017. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
United States: Will Trump Go to
Southeast Asia or Won't He?

Carlyle A. Thayer
Septemb er 17 ,2017

Q1.ls it fair to say that Trump is getting disturbingly non-committal on his planned
visits to Vietnam and the Philippines at the end of the year?
ANSWER: Trump was shown on TV replying to a reporter's question that he would be
going to China, Japan and South Korea "and possibly Vietnam for a conference." The
conference is actually the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit
in Da Nang, Vietnam.
President Trump's reply will send shivers down the backs of Vietnam's leadership
who planned to host Trump and Xi Jin-ping on back-to-back official visits to Hanoi.
Trump's comments also undercut his Vice President, Mike Pence, who revealed
Trump would attend the APEC summit in Da Nang and the ASEAN-related summits in
Manila. Trump may be focused on what he perceives as the existential threat from
North Korea, but if he wants to enlist region-wide support for his tough line he
should meet with Asia's leaders face-to-face at informal retreats at the end of the
year, the East Asian Summit in particular.

Q2. What would it mean if he cancels those visits at this stage? How much damage
that would do to the U.S.'s standing in Southeast Asia?
ANSWER: Trump's off hand comments make no sense. Perhaps he doesn't
understand that all the key players from China, Japan and South Korea will be
attending the APEC and ASEAN-related summits. lncluding the East Asian Summit. So
a separate trip to Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing either before or after these summits
would be read as a Trump repudiation of the Asia-Pacific's key multilateral economic
a nd politica l-security institutions.

Trumpcould get more accomplished by visiting Da Nang and Manila and then going
on to the other capitals to press his case for united action on North Korea. A Trump
no show in Manila would undermine all the work and effort put in by the Obama
Administration to demonstrate that Southeast Asia counts, especially ASEAN. A
Trump no show would undermine U.S. credibility as a security provider for the
region, ln brief, if Trump withdraws from his commitment to attend APEC and
ASEAN-related summits, including the East Asia Summit, it would be an act of
political vandalism that gravely weakens the region's security architecture. China
would be the prime beneficiary.
 2

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "United States: Will Trump Go to Southeast

Asia or Won't He?" Thayer Consultancy Bockground Brief , September 17, 2077. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply
key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
APEC: Its Purpose, Agenda and
Trump's Presence
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 18,2017

We are doing a preview before APEC. lt would be great if you can help us to answer
these questions:

Q1) What is the overall point of APEC - security, economics, development, all of the
above?
ANSWER: APEC [Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation] is primarily an economicforum of
economies rather than states because Taiwan is a member. lts main purpose is to
promote free trade and investment through liberalization measures among its
members in the Asia-Pacific. APEC's agenda has expanded over time from trade and
investment to contributing to regional economic growth and economic integration
through trade liberalization measures and technical cooperation.
APEC touches broadly on security in two forms: counter-terrorism and human
security. ln the aftermath of LL September 200L, APEC adopted a strategy for secure
trade in Asia-Pacific initially focused on mitigating the threat of man portable anti-
aircraft missiles and to make air cargo trade as safe and secure as seaborne trade.
APEC's counter-terrorism mission has expanded to include securing and protecting
critical infrastructure such as air and sea transportation, telecommunications,
electronic financial systems, and electronic systems supporting border control,
customs and immigration. APEC's broad economic agenda now includes strategies for
promoting h uman secu rity.

Q2) What significance do these leadership summits hold?

ANSWER: APEC was formed in L989 and was the only leaders' led summit in the Asia-
Pacific. Most of what comes out of an APEC leaders' meeting has been prepared by
working-level and senior officials beforehand. APEC's value lies in the opportunity for
leaders to meet either bilaterally or at a leaders' meeting to discuss a broad range of
issues well beyond the scope of APEC. ln the case where bilateral relations are
strained, APEC provides neutral ground for leaders to meet informally.
Q3) What will dominate this year?
ANSWER: ASEAN Trade Ministers in May identified four priorities: (1) promoting
sustainable, innovative and inclusive growth, (2) deepening regional economic
integration, (3) strengthening the competitiveness and innovation of micro, small and
medium-sized enterprises in the digital age, and (4) enhanced food security and
 2

sustainable agriculture in response to climate change. New stress will be given to e-

commerce, digitaltrade and the internet economy.
Q4) How will President Trump's attendance be significant?
ANSWER: President Donald Trump is widely known for his protectionist and anti-
globalization views. His attendance at the APEC meeting will provide reassurance that
the United States is still committed to APEC as part of the regional economic and
security architecture. APEC has long pushed for a Free Trade Agreement in Asia and
the Pacific (FTAPP); when it stalled President Obama gave U.S. support to the Trans
Pacific Partnership. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP. ln the meantime, Trump
has met or will have met with most of the key leaders of APEC: China, Japan, South
Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. These leaders will be pleased that
Trump just showed up.

Q5) Does Trump's temperament and personality lend itself well to this sort of venue?
ANSWER: APEC's leaders have been wise in inviting Trump to address the APEC CEO
Forum. Trump will be in his element. He will speak about an open and free trading
system in the Asia-Pacific based on high international standards, includingthe digital
economy and the protection of intellectual property. Trump can hold forth on what
he perceives as inequities in the present global economic system and his policy
prescriptions.

Q6) Does hosting it in Da Nang carry significance?

ANSWER: Da Nang is a relatively modern and open city with first class hotels; it does
not have the traffic congestion of Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City. Da nang also faces the
South China Sea and can serve as a subtle reminder of Vietnam's national interest in
maintaining the East Sea as a sea of "peace, cooperation and development.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "APEC: lts Purpose, Agenda and Trump's
Presence," Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief, October 18,20L7. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 6s 648 097 123
Vietnam: What is the Purpose of
Trump's Official Visit to Hanoi?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 19, 2017

We request your assessment of President Trump's visit to Asia in November.

Q1 - What are President Trump's specific goals when he goes to Hanoi (after the APEC
Summit in Da Nang)?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was the first leader from Southeast Asia
to be received by President Trump at the White House. Trump's decision to make an
official visit to Vietnam after the APEC summit in Da Nang is an important commitment
by him to further the comprehensive partnership between the United States and
Vietnam and to recognize Vietnam as an important actor in regional affairs and a
partner with the United States on many issues in common.

Q2 - What is the meaning of his visit for Vietnam and the region?
ANSWER: President Trump's visit to the region has two significant meanings. First, his
visit will demonstrate that the United States will remain engaged in the Asia-Pacific
and second, that the United States will continue to support the region's institutional
architecture such as APEC, ASEAN and the East Asian Summit.
For President Trump U.S. engagement means reassurance to allies such as Japan and'
South Korea, who face a ballistic missile and nuclear threat from North Korea. At the
same time, Trump will provide reassurance to regional states that partner with the
United States. When President Trump visits Hanoi he will have met in the White House
the government leaders from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.
Q3 - What are the expected issues to be discussed by President Trump and with
Vietna m'sleaders?

ANSWER: Trump will promote the major areas of convergence in strategic outlook
between Washington and Hanoi: non-nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula,
regional economic liberalization based on high international standards, a rules-based
order in the South China Sea including freedom of navigation and overflight, and
cooperation in meeting the challenges of transnational crime, cyber security and
cou nter-terrorism.

Q4 - Will Trump make any significant announcement on the US-Vietnam bilateral

relationship?
 2

ANSWER: The U.S. Administration has already announced that President Trump will
address the APEC CEO summit. He will speak about open and free trade in the Asia-
Pacific Region based on high international standards especially with respect to
eliminating barriers to trade and investment and promoting e-commerce and digital
trade. Trump will also support a special fund to build capacity to enable women to
participate more in economic activities.
While in Hanoi, Trump and President Tran Dai Quang likely will issue a joint statement
reaffirming their intention to enrich the comprehensive partnership. lt is likely this
joint statement will summarize progress made across a number of areas mentioned in
the joint statement issued after Prime Minister Phuc's visit to Washington including
contentious trade issues, defence and security cooperation, and U.S. support for
Vietnam's involvement in UN peacekeeping missions. The meeting of the two
presidents will offer an opportunity to make an announcement related to future
activities such as cooperation in maritime security, outer space, and war legacy issues.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: What is the Purpose of Trump's

Official Visit to Hanoi?," Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief, October L9,20L7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
United States: What Trump's
Visit to East Asia Portends
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 19,2017

We are preparing a report on US President Donald Trump's upcoming Asia visit. As you
may know, President Trump will travel to Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, the
Philippines, and Hawaii, from November 3-14.
According to the White House, the President's travel will underscore his commitment
to longstanding United States alliances and partnerships, and reaffirm United States
leadership in promoting a free and open lndo-Pacific region.
The President will travel to Danang, Vietnam, on November 10. There, he will
participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders'
Meeting and deliver a speech at the APEC CEO Summit. ln the speech, the President
will present the United States' vision for a free and open lndo-Pacific region and
underscore the important role the region plays in advancing America's economic
prosperity.
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. Apart from concerns over North Korea's nuclear weapons, what do you think are
the other major concerns of the Trump Administration in the region?
ANSWER: President Trump's visit to East Asia in November has two broad objectives.
The first is to provide reassurance to U.S. allies and partners that the United States
will remain engaged in the region. As your question notes, President Trump will press
for a broad coalition of states to support UN sanctions on North Korea to deal with
ballistic missile and nuclear testing. Second, President Trump will seek to reassure
regional states that his Administration respects and will work with existing multilateral
institutions including APEC, ASEAN and the East Asia Summit.
Q2. Why do you think President Trump wants to promote a free and open Pacific
region? ls it China's aggressive behavior in the South China Sea that prompted his
concerns?
ANSWER: President Trump is committed to free and open trade in the Asia-Pacific on
condition that it meets high international standards including removing barriers to
trade and investment and the promotion of services such as e-commerce and digital
trade. President Trump will emphasize that meeting these standards is a prerequisite
for any country re-negotiating its trade agreements with the United States such as
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