Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Vietnam Calls
on China to Respect Sovereignty

Carlyle A. Thayer
September 11, 20L7

We request your assessment about the ongoing diplomatic spat between Vietnam
and China

Q1. What is your take on China's rejection of Vietnam's call to respect their
sovereignty on over the Paracel islands today?
ANSWER: Vietnam and China have been engaged in a highly choreographed
diplomatic exchange over sovereignty disputes for quite some time. China occupies
the Paracels, Vietnam claims sovereignty over them. Every time China takes an actin
that bolsters it claims to effective sovereignty through occupation and
administration, Vietnam responds with a protest lest silence be viewed in
international law as acquiescence.
China is merely trying to put Vietnam in its place by responding as if China's claim to
sovereignty was "indisputable" and there was no dispute between them. Vietnam is
always asked to respond responsibility and in line with agreements reached by the
leaders of their two countries.

Q2. What message did China want to convey when conducting live fire military drills
around Vietnam's lndependence Day? Do you think it was on purpose?
ANSWER: The Maritime Safety Administration of China's Hainan province stated in
August that China would conduct live fire drills around the Paracels until September
2nd, The cut off date was Vietnam's 72nd national day. This date could not have
been picl<ed randomly but was chosen to subtly warn Vietnam that its independence
was under Chinese suffrage.

Q3. Was Vietnam's September 5 reaction to China's latest move on the South Chins
Sea strong enough in your viewpoint? Could Vietnam do something differently?

ANSWER: Vietnam issued two protests against Chinese military exercises. The first
was issued on 3L August by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson who called on China "to
cease and refrain from repeating acts that complicate the situation." This was a
comparatively mild statement and the mention of "complicate the situation" drew
on the ASEAN-China Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
adopted in 2002.
 2

Vietnam's second statement, issued on 6 September, was much stronger. The

foreign ministry spokesperson declared, "Vietnam strongly rejects China's move and
seriously requests China to respect Vietnam's sovereignty over the Hoang Sa (Parcel)
archipelago. A day before this protest was issued, Vietnam conducted the first
exercise of the lsraeli's Spyder air defence system that was reported by the Army
newspaper Qudn DQi Nh6n Ddn.

Q4. How is current tension compared to the one when China placed its oil rig
Haiyang 981 in Vietnam's EEZ early 20L4?

ANSWER: Obviously current tensions are not as high as May-julV 2A1.4when China
dispatched the HYSY 98L and an armade of ships, tugs, vessels and boats that ranged
up to one hundred in number at its peak. China's subsequent dispatch of the HYSY
981 was on China's side of the hypothetical median line. Both sides informally agree
that each side could do what it wanted on their side of the informal median line. But
each side was left to make diplomatic protests at the other's sides actions.

Q5. What action should Vietnam take if China continues escalating the tension?
ANSWER: Vietnam must avoid a direct military confrontation with China if Beijing
decides to escalate tension. Vietnam should give China's actions wide publicity as it
did in 2014 by inviting the world's press to record and film China's actions. Vietnam
should take this issue to ASEAN, and, as well, lobby its major strategic partners to
call for China to exercise restraint.
Between now and November, ASEAN and China will be setting up the modalities for
negotiating a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Vietnam could try to leverage
off this diplomatic momentum to threaten, as China has already done, to refuse to
agree to a Code of Conduct until actions that complicate or escalate maritime
disputes are stopped.
Vietnam should press for a high-level meeting of senior leaders. But given that China
will be holding the nineteenth congress of the Chinese Communist Party from 18
October, it is unlikely China will provoke an incident before Xi Jinping is confirmed
for another five years in office.
Finally, Vietnam could put on displays of military force, such as conducting air and
naval combined live firing exercises and highlighting the role of its six Varshavyanka
or enhanced Kilo-class submarines.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "South China Sea: Vietnam Calls on China to
Respect Sovereignty," Thayer Consultancy Bockground Brief , September 1.1.,2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply
key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam Tests SPYDER Missiles
& Riot Police Training Exercise
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 11, 2017

Vietnam reportedly tested the lsraeli SPYDER missiles on its training exercise early this
month: http://news.zing.vn/viet-nam-lan-dau-ban-thu-ten-lua-phone-khong-spvder-
post777526.html and Vietnamese media yesterday reported that thousands of riot
police were involved in rescue training at sea in anticipation of a natural disaster in
the north; https://video.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/xa-hoi/2-000-canh-sat-co-dons-dien-
tap-tren-bien-3639086. html,
Q1. How significant are these developments?
ANSWER: These developments represent a trend that has been underway in recent
years of giving greater transparency to defence and security developments in
Vietnam. Several years ago some young former Vietnamese military personnel
working for a publication in Hanoi that specializes on defence matters, informed me
that a new policy had been adopted. If a defence matter was raised in overseas
publications they could comment on it. They argued that transparency was better as
it helped to disarm suspicion. Since that time there has been an increased number of
news reports and videos showing the capacity of the Vietnam People's Armed Forces.
The report on the lsraeli Spyder is particularly striking for the detail of its photographs.

At this time of year Vietnam is beset with tropical storms, flooding and other natural
disasters. Vietnam has a good emergency response strategy to cope. ln this case
rescuing civilians from a damaged ship involves skills that are transferrable to combat.

Q2. ls it China that Vietnam wants to send signalto through these events?
ANSWER: These developments are significant for two reasons. First, they are a form
of information warfare designed to signal Vietnam's increasing capacity for self-
defence" The timing of the first exercises using the lsraeli Spyder is significant coming
as it does on the heels of media reports that China has threatened some kind of action
against Vietnam if it continues oil drilling in Vanguard Bank.
The second report is significant because it is designed to give Vietnam's civilian
population reassurance that Vietnam can cope with major incidents and disasters. At
the same time, it signals to China that Vietnam is not unprepared to deal with mass
casualties and has an effective and well-trained civil defence force.

Q3.What isthe current state of the bilateral relations between China and Vietnam?
 2

ANSWER: Vietnam-China relations have reached their lowest level since the MayJuly
2014 standoff over China's deployment of the HD 981 into Vietnam's Exclusive
Economic Zone. Not only did China cancel this year's friendly border defence exchange
activities in late May, but China also reportedly threaten0d the use of force if Vietnam
continued to drill for oil in the Vanguard Bank area. Vietnam suspended activities by
Repsol of Spain. A meeting between their respective foreign ministers on the sidelines
of ASEAN's annual ministerial meeting in Manila on 7 August was cancelled. ln late
August reports surfaced that Chinese cyber specialists were busy hacking into
government and corporate networks in Vietnam.
Despite this downturn Vietnam continues to pursue a policy of "cooperation and
struggle" (vito hqp tdc, vtta ddu tronh) with China. ln August, Defence Minister
General Ngo Xuan Linh travelled to Washington to meet his counterpart Secretary of
Defense James Mattis and shore up defence cooperation, most notably by announcing
that Vietnam would host a visit by a U.S. Navy aircraft carried at the Cam Ranh
lnternational Port next year.
Later in month, Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong visited lndonesia and Myanmar.
While in Jakarta Trong pointedly called for regional unity on South China Sea maritime
disputes. On 31 August, a Vietnamese foreign ministry spokesperson called on China
"to cease and refrain from repeating acts that complicate the situation" in response
to Chinese military exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin. A note verbole was handed over to
the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi.
On 6 September, Vietnam once again protested Chinese military exercises in waters
off the Paracel islands. A foreign ministry spokesperson sharpened Vietnam's
language, "Vietnam strongly rejects China's move and seriously requests China to
respect Vietnam's sovereignty over the Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelago." Yet in the
same period, the numbers of Chinese tourists going to Vietnam shot up, investment
was reported to be increasing, and two-way bilateral trade reached 525.5 billion in
the first quarter.
It is likely the status quo will prevail until China holds the nineteenth congress of the
Chinese Communist Party commencing L8 October.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam Tests SPYDER Missiles & Riot Police
Training Exercise," Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief , September 1.1, 20L7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.