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Demand Deseasonali

No Year Quarter Regression Level Trend


($ 000) zed

0 110.29 2.38
1 I 98 112.67 111.26 2.24
2 II 106 115.05 113.43 2.24
1
3 III 109 115.50 117.44 114.81 2.15
4 IV 133 120.75 119.82 118.47 2.30
5 I 130 125.00 122.21 121.92 2.42
6 II 116 125.88 124.59 124.25 2.41
2
7 III 133 124.75 126.97 127.15 2.46
8 IV 116 127.50 129.36 128.03 2.30
9 I 138 131.00 131.74 131.22 2.39
10 II 130 135.88 134.13 134.09 2.44
3
11 III 147 136.51 137.37 2.52
12 IV 141 138.89 139.90 2.52
13 141.28
14 143.66
4
15 146.04
16 148.43
17 150.81
18 153.20
5
19 155.58
20 157.96

MAD MSE MAPE bias TS


7.82 90.45 6.43 13.17 1.68
Pooled
Seasonable Abs-
Seasonal Forecast Error Absolute Sq Error
Factor demand
Factor

0.87 0.99 111.96 -13.96 13.96 194.87 0.14 MAD


0.92 0.94 106.76 -0.76 0.76 0.58 0.01 MSE
0.93 1.02 117.69 -8.69 8.69 75.45 0.08 MAPE
1.11 1.01 117.81 15.19 15.19 230.64 0.11 bias
1.06 0.98 118.64 11.36 11.36 128.98 0.09 TS
0.93 0.94 116.87 -0.87 0.87 0.76 0.01
1.05 1.01 128.01 4.99 4.99 24.93 0.04
0.90 1.02 132.05 -16.05 16.05 257.49 0.14
1.05 0.99 129.13 8.87 8.87 78.70 0.06
0.97 0.94 125.50 4.50 4.50 20.22 0.03
1.08 1.01 138.47 8.53 8.53 72.78 0.06
1.02 1.01 140.95 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
143.49
146.03
148.57
151.11
153.64
156.18
158.72
161.26
98
140.00
f(x) = 2.3839285714x + 110.2857142857
135.00

130.00
7.82
125.00
90.45
6.43 120.00
13.17
1.68 115.00

110.00

105.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11 12
year quarter Demand Deseason level trend regresi seasonal
al
2592.75 226.86
1998 1 1 2250 2787.84 223.68 2819.60 0.80
2 2 1737 3000.41 222.57 3046.46 0.57
3 3 2412 3575.00 3246.46 224.92 3273.32 0.74
4 4 7269 3783.75 3528.00 230.58 3500.17 2.08
1999 1 5 3514 3965.38 3777.53 232.47 3727.03 0.94
2 6 2143 4069.63 3968.04 228.28 3953.88 0.54
3 7 3459 4118.75 4269.34 235.58 4180.74 0.83
4 8 7056 4272.38 4440.79 229.17 4407.59 1.60
2000 1 9 4120 4237.38 4663.77 228.55 4634.45 0.89
2 10 2766 4274.13 4870.95 226.41 4861.31 0.57
3 11 2556 4595.13 4946.15 211.29 5088.16 0.50
4 12 8253 4968.50 5099.54 205.50 5315.02 1.55
2001 1 13 5491 5390.38 5389.43 213.94 5541.87 0.99
2 14 4382 6083.00 5787.17 232.32 5768.73 0.76
3 15 4315 6575.38 6039.93 234.36 5995.59 0.72
4 16 12035 6509.25 6321.42 239.08 6222.44 1.93
2002 1 17 5648 6489.50 6528.12 235.84 6449.30 0.88
2 18 3696 6688.25 6697.77 229.22 6676.15 0.55
3 19 4843 6930.71 229.59 6903.01 0.70
4 20 13097 7173.46 230.91 7129.87 1.84
intercep
slope
pooled
seasonal forecast

0.90 2535.61
0.60 1803.53
0.70 2248.26
1.80 6249.48
0.89 3345.36
0.60 2393.49
0.70 2946.27
1.83 8227.33
0.89 4175.30
0.59 2892.33
0.71 3634.00
1.80 9296.59
0.89 4737.46
0.59 3299.62
0.69 4173.33
1.78 11194.22
0.91 5941.14
0.61 4096.91
0.70 4817.12
1.80 12860.70
HOLT`S METHOD

Quarter Demand ($
No. Year Level Trend Forecast Error
000)
0 102.27 3.46
1 I 98.00 104.96 3.38 105.73 -7.73
2 II 106.00 108.10 3.36 108.34 -2.34
1
3 III 109.00 111.22 3.33 111.46 -2.46
4 IV 133.00 116.39 3.52 114.55 18.45
5 I 130.00 120.92 3.62 119.91 10.09
6 II 116.00 123.68 3.53 124.54 -8.54
2
7 III 133.00 127.80 3.59 127.22 5.78
8 IV 116.00 129.85 3.44 131.39 -15.39
9 I 138.00 133.76 3.48 133.28 4.72
10 II 130.00 136.52 3.41 137.24 -7.24
3
11 III 147.00 140.63 3.48 139.93 7.07
12 IV 141.00 143.80 3.45 144.12 -3.12
13 I 147.26
14 II 150.71
4
15 III 154.16
16 IV 157.61
17 I 161.06
18 II 164.51
5
19 III 167.96
20 IV 171.41
Abs-
Absolute Sq Error Demand 200.00

7.73 59.76 0.08 MAD 7.74


2.34 5.47 0.02 MSE 82.58 150.00

2.46 6.06 0.02 MAPE 6.25


18.45 340.46 0.14 bias -0.70 100.00
10.09 101.79 0.08 TS -0.09
8.54 72.90 0.07
5.78 33.44 0.04 50.00
15.39 236.72 0.13
4.72 22.24 0.03
0.00
7.24 52.41 0.06 1 2 3 4
7.07 50.03 0.05
3.12 9.71 0.02
Demand
200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Col umn E