Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Chinas Xi Jinping Re-election:
Implications for the Region
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 25, 2017

China will be ending the 19th congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) today
with two big news items dominating the media. First, President Xi Jinping is now
considered the Chinas most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. The Thought of Xi
Jinping has been officially recognized as part of the CCCPs theory. Second, Wang
Qishans has been dropped from the Politburo Standing Committee.
We request your urgent assessment of the following two issues:
Q1: What does Xis increased power mean for Chinas strategy towards its
neighbours, especially the East Sea/South China Sea?
ANSWER: Xi Jinping has ultimate power in China for the next five years. He is driving
China to become a world power by 2050 and will further develop the People's
Liberation Army to be a first class military. Xi will not give up one Inch of Chinese
territory and nor will he let any country challenge China's sovereignty. We can
expect a more assertive China in the South China Sea pushing back against new
freedom of navigation patrols approved by President Trump. Xi will approach the
South China Sea with a velvet diplomatic glove over his iron fist.
Q2: After consolidating himself as the top man, what is Xis likely to do in the short
and long-term?
ANSWER: It is clear domestically that Xi will further consolidate his leading position
as the core of the party's leadership by enhancing the Chinese Communist Partys
control over state, the economy, and society in China.
The goal for the long-term is set: Xi aims to make China the most powerful country in
the world in all aspects of national power - economic, military, political and
diplomatic. During his tenure the Belt and Road Initiative will be his signature policy
to recreate a new China-centred world order. Xi expects the United States to work
with China but overtime Xi envisages that the relationship will alter and China will
emerge primus inter pares (first among equals).

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Chinas Xi Jinping Re-election: Implications for

the Region, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 25, 2017. All background
 2

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.