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Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123


Trumps Visit to Asia: What are
the Gives and Takes?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 31, 2017

This week Donald Trump departs for his first trip to Asia as president of the United
States. He is scheduled to visit Japan, South Korea, China, then Vietnam (APEC) and
the Philippines (ASEAN). We request your assessment of the following issues :
Q1/ What are the main challenges that Trump will have to face?
ANSWER: The main challenge that President Donald Trump will face during his visit
to Asia is convincing regional states that the United States will remain constructively
engaged in the region and demonstrate leadership across a spectrum of issues
economic, political, diplomatic and military - that regional states will follow. Related
to this is the challenge to President Trump that he can deal multilaterally with these
issues and respect rather than undermine existing multilateral institutions such as
APEC, ASEAN and most importantly the East Asia Summit.
Q2/ And for the region, what would be the issues be related to Trump and his
administration?
ANSWER: In Northeast Asia it is clear that South Korea and Japan would welcome a
reaffirmation of Trumps opposition to nuclear proliferation in North Korea but not
to the extent that the U.S. unilaterally resorts to military force. In China, Xi Jinping
would like to elicit from Trump that he will treat China as an equal power and work
together first to resolve the North Korean issue peacefully and second to resolve
economic issues mutually and not unilaterally.
In Southeast Asia, regional states would like to see President Trump contribute in a
substantial way to supporting ASEANs regional autonomy and centrality in regional
security issues. They would also like to see a commitment by Trump for the United
States to support materially ASEAN-communist building and regional economic
integration.
Q3/ Do you think that the Trumps no-show at the EAS Summit is a bad signal for
US allies and partners in Asia?
ANSWER: Trumps late minute decision to leave Manila early and miss the East Asian
Summit is a major mistake by the Trump Administration. The East Asian Summit
bring together not only ASEANs ten members states but the U.S. allies Japan, South
Korea and Australia, partners such as India and New Zealand as well as China and
Russia. It has long been hoped by US allies and partners that the EAS would become
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an effective leaders led forum that dealt with current security challenges by linking
expanded ASEAN multilateral institution, such as the ASEAN Defence Ministers
Meeting Plus the EAS summit. The U.S. has continually claimed it is a resident
Pacific power, China asserts that the U.S. is an outside power. President Xi can now
address the EAS with one chair vacant. Trumps actions will speak louder than his
words.
Q4/ Trump will visit Vietnam. What can he bring to Hanoi ?
ANSWER: Trump is making two stops in Vietnam. The first is in Da Nang for the APEC
summit. Trump will address the APEC CEO Forum and advocate high-standard free
trade agreements as the basis for economic relations with the United States. The
second stop is Hanoi for an official visit. This comes close on the heels of Prime
Minister Nguyen Xuan Phucs visit to Washington, the first by a Southeast Asian head
of government.
President Trump will bring additional reassurance that the United States is
committed to expanding the comprehensive partnership agreed to during the
Obama Administration. Trump will stress the convergence in strategic outlook
between the two countries and the opportunities that lie ahead for both including
enhanced government-to-government interaction at all levels, defence and security
cooperation, science, technology and educational exchanges, and addressing the
legacy of war (Agent Orange and unexploded ordnance).
President Trump will also express United States to support for a rule-based order
and peaceful resolution of the South China Sea. And finally, President Trump will
express support for greater involvement by American companies in Vietnam to
invest and trade for mutual benefit.
Q5/ In what fields can Vietnam use the opportunity of Trumpvisit?
ANSWER: Vietnam will offer its general support for UN sanction son North Korea to
halt nuclear proliferation, counter-terrorism and cyber, and U.S. freedom of
navigation and over flight in the South China Sea. In particular, Vietnam will reaffirm
its commitment to domestic economic reform to better enable American companies
to do business in Vietnam.
In particular, Vietnams leaders likely will indicate their willingness to address priority
economic issues raised by U.S. trade negotiators such as protection of intellectual
property, import of U.S. veterinary drugs and services (financial, advertising and
mobile phone roaming). Vietnams leaders will also stress cooperation in defense
technology
Q6/ Many analysts said that the South China Sea issues had taken the backseat on
US agenda. Do you share this point of view?
ANSWER: Both President Trump and his secretaries of state and defense have been
critical of Chinas militarization of the South China Sea. But so far they have not
developed a coherent strategy to deter future Chinese assertiveness. The United
States has reacted to North Koreas ballistic missile and nuclear tests by adopting a
Northeast Asia First policy thus relegating territorial disputed in the South China Sea
down the list of priorities. The conundrum for President Trump is can he successfully
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apply pressure on China simultaneously on North Korea and the South China Sea
without provoking Chinese resistance or a demand for a quid pro quo.
President Trump committed himself to standard U.S. policy on the South China Sea
when he met the heads of government from Vietnam and Singapore. U.S. policy is to
support the peaceful resolution of territorial disputes on the basis on international
law, including UNCLOS, respect for legal and diplomatic processes, the early
conclusion of a Code of Conduct, and freedom of navigation and over flight. In May
President Trump approved a new annual plan for freedom of navigation operational
patrols to challenge excess claims made by China and other claimant states in the
South China Sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Trumps Visit to Asia: What are the Gives and
Takes?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 31, 2017. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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