Quy hoch h thng in Vit Nam nhn t pha an ninh nng lng Quc gia

Ths.Nguyn Anh Tun v KS. Nguyn Mnh Cng, Vin Nng lng

1. t vn

Mt trong nhng mi quan tm hng u ca cc quc gia l vn an ninh trong

cung cp in, an ninh nng lng (ANNL) trong h thng in. Ngy nay v trong mt vi
thp k ti , ngoi tr Nga, M v mt vi nc Trung ng, nhiu nc ang v s sm
i mt vi thiu ht cung cp nng lng (NL). Vit Nam tuy mi l quc gia c nn kinh
t ang pht trin v mi t c mc thu nhp trung bnh, nhng vi sc rn ca mt
t nc giu truyn thng v con ngi thng minh cn c, d bo t nc ta s tip tc
pht trin nhanh trong nhng thp k ti. Cung cu nng lng ni chung v cung cu in
ni ring nc ta ang c nhng vn bc xc t ra. Xem xt nghin cu mt cch
nghim tc v su sc v cc gii php ANNL trong h thng in (HT) l vn khng
ch ca Nh nc, Chnh ph m l trch nhim ca mi ngi chng ta.
c im a hnh t nc ta di v hp, ti nguyn NL phn b khng ng u
vi cc m than tr lng ln hu ht tp trung vng Qung Ninh, tr lng kh t ch
yu nm thm lc a ng v Ty Nam b, tr lng thy in ch yu phn b min
Bc v min Trung. Trong khi nhu cu tiu th in li tp trung khong 50% min Nam,
khong 40% min Bc v ch trn 10% min Trung. Trong 20 nm qua cc Quy hoch
in Quc gia (QH) t QH 4 n QH 7 do Vin Nng lng nghin cu, vic quy
hoch pht trin cc nh my in cng nh li truyn ti in lun ra cc gii php
nhm m bo khai thc hp l cc ngun ti nguyn NL trn tng min. Tin xy dng
cc nh my in c d kin sao cho ph hp vi tng trng nhu cu ph ti tng khu
vc, cu trc ngun in lun c d kin sao cho chi ph u t v vn hnh thp nht.
ng trc truyn ti 500kV c xy dng nhm tng cng an ninh cung cp in, h tr
ngun in gia cc min ph hp vi yu t ma ca cc nh my thy in (NMT), ph
hp vi c im ph ti cc min
Tuy nhin, trong thc t ny sinh mt s vn nh: nhu cu in tng nhanh; s
dng in cn lng ph; cc ngun nhin liu ha thch ang dn cn kit, trong khi nhp
khu nhin liu gp nhiu kh khn; li truyn ti in di, km tin cy cung cp in...
Trong khun kh bi vit ny, xin c tp trung vo mt s vn lin quan n ANNL
ang c nghin cu trong Bo co iu chnh QH 7 (CQH7), l:
i) Hiu chnh li d bo nhu cu in n nm 2030 vi mc tiu gim dn
cng tiu th in, tng hiu qu s dng in v hiu qu u t cc
cng trnh in;
 ii) Tng cng t trng cc ngun nng lng sch: in t nng lng ti to,
t kh t v kh ho lng (LNG) gim thiu tc ng n mi trng,
pht trin bn vng;
iii) Nghin cu xut cc gii php mi v quy hoch li truyn ti: lin kt
li truyn ti Bc-Trung-Nam, truyn ti cng sut ln t cc cm nhit
in - in ht nhn t duyn hi nam Trung b v Nam b, gim dng
ngn mch
2. Hiu chnh d bo nhu cu in n nm 2030

a. Cc gi thit v xu th tng trng kinh t v quy m dn s

Trong QH7, nhu cu ph ti in mc c s c ph duyt vi mc tng trng

bnh qun 12,7%/nm trong giai on 2011-2020 v tng ng 7,8%/nm giai on 2021-
2030. C s ch yu cho d bo nhu cu in da trn kch bn tng trng GDP bnh qun
7,5%/nm (2011-2015), 8%/nm (2016-2020), 7,8%/nm (2021-2030). Phng n d bo
ny k vng giai on cng nghip ha m rng t 2011-2015, cng in/GDP s t
nh (~1,1-:-1,15kWh/US$ nm) v s gim dn ti khong 0,51kWh/US$ vo nm 2030.
Cng in gim l xu th chung ca cc nc khi chuyn t giai on thu nhp thp
sang thu nhp trung bnh v cao, khi m cc ngnh kinh t cng chuyn t da vo m rng
sn xut sang tng nng sut, hiu qu v tng cc ngnh dch v. Xu th cng
in/GDP c cho trong hnh 1:
Hnh 1 Cng in/GDP ca Vit Nam v mt s nc
(Minh ha theo d bo trong QH7)
 Thc t 3 nm 2011-2013 va qua, tng trng GDP ch t bnh qun 5,64%/nm,
trong khi nhu cu in tng bnh qun 3 nm l 9,9%/nm. K vng phc hi tng trng
GDP nhanh ca Vit Nam sau khng hong kinh t th gii 2007-2008 khng tr thnh
hin thc. D bo tng trng GDP nm 2014 v nm 2015 ch mc 5,8 v 6,2%/nm.
Thay v mc k vng giai on 2011-2015 GDP tng bnh qun 7,5%/nm, GDP bnh qun
giai on ny ch tng khong 5,8%/nm.
Theo cc chuyn gia kinh t ca Vin Chin lc, B K hoch v u t, cc kch
bn tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam trong thi k y mnh cng cuc CNH, HH t nay
n nm 2030 ang c nghin cu. Tuy cha c d bo chnh thc, nhng c th tham
kho chuyn gia mt s phng n nh sau:
Da vo cc yu t to nn tng trng GDP: i) kh nng huy ng v hiu qu s
dng vn u t pht trin; ii) quy m dn s, lc lng lao ng v nng sut lao ng; iii)
ng gp ca cc vng kinh t, hai kch bn tng trng GDP c d kin l:
Kch bn GDP c s: gi thit kh nng huy ng vn u t trung bnh trn GDP
t 32%. Vit Nam vn tip tc c dng vn u t trc tip (FDI) v gin tip (FII) t
nc ngoi nh c sn ngun lao ng di do, gi nhn cng r, s chuyn dch u t vo
cc nn kinh t mi ni. Bn cnh , Vit Nam vn tip tc nhn c vn vay u i
ODA tuy c gim dn. H s hiu qu s dng vn u t ICOR ang cn cao, nhng
gim dn t 6,7 nm 2008 xung 5,6 nm 2013. D bo kch bn ny ICOR s gim cn
4,6 giai on t sau 2015. D bo tng trng dn s Vit Nam da trn D bo dn s
Vit Nam n nm 2030 do B K hoch v u t (MPI) phi hp vi Tng cc Thng k
(GSO) thc hin nm 2011, theo :
Tc tng dn s giai on 2010-2020: 1,03%/nm

2021-2030: 0,71%/nm

Trong kch bn ny d bo giai on 2016-2020 GDP tng bnh qun 6,9%/nm, thi
k 2021-2035 GDP tng bnh qun 7%/nm, quy m nn kinh t v thu nhp bnh qun u
ngi d bo tng ln nhanh chng. Nm 2035, quy m nn kinh t s t gn 1.300 t
USD, gp 11,6 ln nm 2010. Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi t trn 12.000 USD, gp gn
9,5 ln nm 2010. Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi nm 2020 l 3370USD/ngi; nm 2030
l 7800USD/ngi. Trong kch bn ny, Vit Nam s tr thnh nc c mc thu nhp trung
bnh cao vo khong sau nm 2020 v nc c mc thu nhp cao vo nm 2030.
 Kch bn GDP cao: Gi thit ch o ca kch bn ny l hiu qu s dng vn u
t c ci thin hn so vi cc giai on trc cng nh kch bn c s. Gi thit ny hm
qu trnh ti c cu c trin khai thc hin quyt lit, sm ci thin c hiu qu s
dng vn u t, h s ICOR s gim cn 4,2 t sau 2015. Cc gi thit v t l tit kim v
t l u t FDI trn GDP l tng ng vi kch bn c s. Kt qu d bo ca kch bn
ny l GDP tng bnh qun 7,6%/nm trong giai on 2016-2035. Trong kch bn ny, tc
tng trng t cao hn kch bn c s nn quy m kinh t v thu nhp bnh qun u
ngi ca nn kinh t v 3 vng kinh t cng t cao hn. Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi
t 3485USD/ngi nm 2020 v trn 8400USD/ngi nm 2030. Nm 2035, quy m kinh
t s t trn 1.400 t USD, gp hn 13 ln nm 2010 v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi t
trn 13.500 USD, gp hn 10,6 ln nm 2010.
b. Cc gi thit v hiu qu NL

Ph hp vi xu hng tng trng kinh t, pht trin bn vng, cc vn v hiu

qu NL giai on quy hoch c gi thit:
- Gim t trng cc ngnh cng nghip tiu th nhiu nng lng: nh hng ny
ph hp vi thay i c cu ngnh kinh t, hng ti cc ngnh cng nghip xanh nh
CN in t, CN cng ngh cao, CN ph tr, CN sn xut hng tiu dng, hng xut khu
cn nhiu lao ng
- p dng cng ngh hin i, tng nng sut v gim tiu hao NL trn mt n v
sn phm.
- Thc hin thnh cng Chng trnh mc tiu Quc gia v hiu qu v tit kim
nng lng: d kin t l tit kim trong cc ngnh, lnh vc s t t 5-:-8%/nm thy theo
ngnh, tng t l tit kim s t 12% tng in nng thiu th vo nm 2020 v tng ng
15% vo nm 2030.
Vi cc gi thit nh trn, k vng cng in/GDP s gim lin tc t nay n
2030. Minh ha cng d in/GDP v GDP bnh qun u ngi xem hnh 2.
 Hnh 2. GDP bnh qun u ngi v Cng in/GDP ca Vit Nam (KB c s)

c. D bo nhu cu in hiu chnh

Vi cc gi thit v tng trng GDP v xu th kinh t nu trn, d bo nhu cu in

hiu chnh c thc hin theo phng php a hi quy (multi-Regression) v kt hp vi
cc phng php trc tip (giai on ngn hn), phng php chuyn gia D bo c
tnh ton trn c s 2 kch bn GDP vi 2 phng n (PA) c s v PA cao. Kt qu c
tm tt nh sau:

Bng 1. Kt qu d bo nhu cu in ton quc n nm 2030-PA c s

Hng mc n v 2015 2020 2025 2030

in thng phm GWh 140000 230924 346312 495853
in sn xut GWh 158471 262414 393537 560285
Pmax MW 24840 41605 62395 88833
 Bng 2. Tc tng trng cc PA nhu cu in giai on 2011 2030

Tng trng in thng phm Tng trng in sn xut

Giai on PA c s PA cao Giai on PA c s PA cao
2011-2015 10.0% 10.0% 2011-2015 9.6% 9.6%
2016-2020 10.5% 11.6% 2016-2020 10.6% 11.7%
2021-2025 8.4% 9.0% 2021-2025 8.4% 9.0%
2026-2030 7.4% 8.1% 2026-2030 7.3% 7.9%

Vi cc kt qu d bo hiu chnh, so snh d bo theo 2 PA c s v cao vi d bo

nhu cu in c ph duyt theo QH 7 nh hnh 3 di y.

Hnh 3. So snh cc phng n iu chnh d bo nhu cu in vi QH7 ph duyt

700000

600000

500000

in TP(GWh) 400000

300000

200000

100000

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

PA cao PA c s QHVII PD

Kt qu iu chnh d bo nhu cu in ton quc n nm 2030 c 2 phng n

cao v c s u thp hn d bo c ph duyt trong QH 7, c th nh sau:
+ Phng n ph ti c s: phng n ny nhu cu in cho ton quc giai on
n nm 2015 thp hn QH7 khong gn 30 t kWh (gn 6000MW), nm 2020 thp hn
59 t kWh (10400MW) v nm 2030 thp hn 119 t kWh (21300MW).
 + Phng n ph ti cao: phng n ny nhu cu in cho Ton quc giai on
n nm 2020 thp hn QHV7 khong 47 t kWh (8300MW) v nm 2030 thp hn 65 t
kWh (11600MW).
Quan st so snh cng in/GDP cc hnh 1 v 2 cho thy: trong hiu chnh d
bo nhu cu in, thay v tip tc gi mc kh cao trn 1kWh/USD giai on 2011-2015,
cng in gim ngay v lin tc t nm 2010 ti nm 2030. mc d cng in
nm 2030 tng ng nhau khong 0,5kWh/USD, nhng xu th l khc nhau.
C th tham kho thm bng di y v cng in/GDP mt s nc quan st
trong giai on 1980-2011

Bng 3. Cng in ca mt s nc trong khu vc

n v: kWh/1000USD gi c nh 2005

Quc gia 1980 1990 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011

Australia 286 342 330 307 297 299 296 292

Canada 552 597 523 494 457 437 458 458

Chile 274 302 379 403 395 399 382 395

Trung Quc 1278 1103 885 1030 1023 1008 1026 1057

Indonesia 84 196 364 396 395 395 404 412

n 480 669 676 623 642 638 622 630

Nht Bn 225 208 235 230 219 225 230 217

Cambodia 99 141 194 220 238 258

Hn Quc 214 271 409 445 450 457 472 479

Mexico 127 176 220 236 230 239 236 251

Malaysia 283 364 560 514 530 657 654 650

New Zealand 345 429 386 351 346 339 349 339

Philippines 337 360 473 483 441 447 457 453

LB Nga 1174 1343 1084 968 1000 1007 978

Singapore 282 309 312 294 266 267 253 244

Thi Lan 330 451 663 710 702 721 738 733

Hoa K 378 355 334 309 304 299 305 298

Vit Nam 326 555 829 992 1073 1149 1134

 3. Tng cng cc ngun NL sch, nng lng ti to (NLTT)

Theo Quyt nh s 1208/Q-TTg ca Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt QH7, n

nm 2030 p ng nhu cu in sn xut khong 695 TWh vi Pmax khong 110GW,
tng cng sut cc ngun in ln ti khong 146,8GW vi c cu: thy in chim 11,8%;
thy in tch nng 3,9%; nhit in than 51,6%; nhit in kh t 11,8% (trong s
dng LNG 4,1%); ngun in s dng NLTT 9,4%; in ht nhn 6,6% v nhp khu in
4,9%. Trong c cu cc ngun NLTT, d kin n nm 2030 s c khong 4800MW thy
in nh, 6200MW in gi, 2000MW in sinh khi v khong 700MW cc ngun NLTT
khc nh in mt tri, in a nhit, in thy triu, in t rc thi
Ph hp vi Chin lc Tng trng xanh c Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt
nm 2012, NLTT ngy cng c vai tr quan trng trong khai thc cc ngun NL sch, gim
nhim mi trng t kh thi t cc dng NL ha thch, pht trin bn vng. Vit Nam c
tim nng NLTT phong ph v a dng: thy in nh, NL sinh khi, NL mt tri, kh sinh
hc, a nhit
Thy in nh (TN): hin nay c 226 nh my TN cng sut >30MW ang vn
hnh vi tng cng sut 1.635MW. Va qua vic pht trin thy in v TN kh t
gy ra mt s vn v ph rng, xi l t, bin i dng chy, lm tng thm nguy c l
ng, st l nh hng ti mi trng sinh thi v dn c ti cc vng d n. Chnh ph
cho r sot tng th tnh hiu qu, tc ng tiu cc ca cc d n TN v Quc Hi ban
hnh ngh quyt 612/2013/QH13 loi bt 418 d n TN vi tng cng sut 1.174MW ra
khi danh mc quy hoch. Mc d vy, c 171 d n TN ang c tip tc xy dng
sau r sot. D kin n nm 2017 s c thm 1000MW hon thnh i vo vn hnh. n
nm 2020 s c tng trn 3500MW TN vo vn hnh v c tnh n nm 2030 s c tng
cng sut TN khong trn 5000MW.
in gi: Nm vng kh hu nhit i gi ma, v tr a l kh thun li nn Vit
Nam c nhiu tim nng v NL gi. in t NL gi c nghin cu hng chc nm
qua.D sao gi thnh sn xut t ngun in gi vn cao hn cc dng NL ha thch khc
do gi thit b, c tnh vn hnh vi s gi thp... Chnh ph c nhng c ch h tr
ngun in gi bng Quyt nh s 37/2011/Q-TTg v c ch gi bn in gi, gn y
B Cng Thng cng cho nghin cu tip c c ch gi iu chnh theo hng khuyn
khch thm ngun NL ny. Tuy vy t nm 2011 n nay mi ch c 52MW ngun in gi
di vo vn hnh. Hin nay d n in gi Bc Liu ang xy dng giai on 2 vi tng
cng sut 88MW.Trong 5 nm ti d kin s c tng khong 300MW in gi v n nm
2030, nu c cc c ch h tr mnh, s c tng khong 5.000MW in gi vo vn hnh.
 in sinh khi (SK): L mt quc gia trng la nc v xut khu hng u th
gii v la go, cc ph phm nng nghip ca Vit Nam rt di do. Va qua Bo co Quy
hoch pht trin NL sinh khi vng ng bng sng Cu Long c Vin Nng lng
thc hin, theo c th pht trin c trn 900MW ngun in t tru, rm r, ph phm
nng nghip t khu vc ny. Nu chng ta c nhng c ch h tr ph hp, k vng trn
ton quc c th pht trin c khong 300MW vo nm 2020 v 1.500MW vo nm
2030.
in mt tri (MT): Vit Nam cng c nhiu tim nng v NL mt tri vi s gi
nng trung bnh min Nam l 2588h/nm, min Trung 1980h/nm v min Bc
1681h/nm. Xu th hin nay ang thun li khi m gi thit b MT gim nhanh trong thi
gian gn y v cn tip tc gim. Tnh trung bnh gi u t 1kW cng sut MT hin nay
ch khong 2.500USD, bng 1/3 so vi cch y 5 nm. Mt v d v p dng MT Thi
Lan l: nm 2009 c khong 30MW MT, nh c c ch fit-in-taif ca Chnh ph Thi
Lan, nm 2013 tng cng sut MT Thi Lan l ~800MW. Trong Quy hoch in lp
nm 2014 ca quc gia ny, d kin n nm 2030 s c 3.000MW MT. Vi mong mun
chng ta s hc hi c kinh nghim t Thi Lan, chng ti k vng n nm 2030 Vit
Nam s c khong 1.500MW MT.
Cc loi ngun NLTT khc: Ngoi cc dng NLTT k trn, Vit Nam cng c th
pht trin ngun in t rc thi th v rc cng nghip, in t cc ngun kh sinh hc,
in a nhit vi tng cng sut n nm 2030 khong 700MW.
Vi nh hng khuyn khch pht trin NLTT v nhng phn tch tng hp nu
trn, tng cng sut ngun NLTT d kin s t 13.700MW, tng ng vi mc m Th
tng Chnh ph ph duyt trong QH7 tuy c thay i gia t trng in mt tri v
ngun in gi thng qua cc cp nht gn y.
Kh t: mt trong cc ngun NL c coi l sch kh t c khai thc cho
pht in t trc nhng nm 2000. n nm 2014 tng cng sut ngun N tuabin kh l
7.446MW, lng kh s dng cho pht in nhng nm gn y t 7,8 -:- 8,2 t m3. Theo
nhng nh gi cp nht t PVN, lng kh t c th cung cp cho pht in khu vc
Cu long-Nam Cn Sn (cp cho cc NM Ph m, B ra) s cho n khong nm
2023-:-2024, sau ngun kh ti y s gim mnh, cn thit c phng n thay th nhin
liu cho cm nh my ny vi tng cng sut gn 4.000MW. Ti khu vc Mn, tha
thun hp ng cp kh t L B khng t c, nh u t m L B-Chevron xin rt
khi d n v ang tm i tc nhng quyn pht trin. D kin khu vc ny phi sau
nm 2023 mi c th cp kh cho cm tuabin kh Mn. Chnh ph duyt Quy hoch
chui Kh LNG (nhp khu) in ti khu vc Sn M - Bnh Thun n sau nm 2020
s xy dng kho LNG ti y vi quy m t 3-:-6 triu tn LNG cp nhin liu cho cm
tuabin kh Sm M v cp b kh t cho cm Ph M-B Ra. Tp on du kh
ExxonMobil thm d kho st ti khu vc L 118 (C Voi Xanh) v ExxonMobil v
PVN trnh B Cng Thng v Chnh ph k hoch khai thc v a kh vo b cung
cp cho NM tubin kh ti khu vc Qung Nam-Qung ngi vi nng lc ban u khong 3
t m3/nm, sau nng ln 7-:-7 t m3/nm. D kin ti y giai on 2021-2022 s c th
xy dng khong 2.500MW tubin kh chu trnh hn hp, khong t 2028 nng ln 4.500-:-
5.000MW.
Nh vy, cn thit nghin cu c th a lng kh th L 118 vo b, lm tng
ngun cung nhin liu ni a, tng t trng nhin liu sch cho pht in v gim lng
than cn nhp khu.
4. Cc gii php v li truyn ti

a. Truyn ti min Bc min Trung

Do nhng c im a l, phn b ngun ti nguyn v phn vng nhu cu in, H

thng in (HT) Vit Nam t Bc ti Nam hin nay c lin kt bng cc ng truyn
ti 500kV gm: 2 mch ng dy (Z) 500kV min Bc lin kt vi min Trung; 3 mch
Z 500kV lin kt min Trung vi min Nam v sp ti n 2016 s l 4 mch Trung Nam
(hon chnh 2 mch 500kV Pleiku Cu Bng).
Trong cc Quy hoch in Quc gia, mt trong cc tiu ch quan trng l: quy hoch
tin cc ngun NMN cn ph hp vi ph ti tng min gim tn tht truyn ti xa,
gim p lc u t li truyn ti lin min khi ch cn thit. Tuy nhin do qu trnh thc
hin quy hoch cc nm gn y, d n tuabin kh Mn b chm nhiu nm do vng mc
khu cung cp kh, nhiu d n nhit in than min Nam gp kh khn v vn u t, a
hnh khng thun li, nn t yu, cng than v vic vn chuyn than trin khai chm hn
k hoch. Mt khc th trng pht in cha phn bit gi mua in ti cc v tr khc nhau
trn ton HT, dn n nhiu nh u t ang chuyn hng sang cc d n nhit in than
min Bc v min Trung.
Ba nm gn y, ph ti tng cao ca Min Nam vt qu kh nng cp ngun ti
ch, lng in thiu ht phi nhn ch yu t cc ngun thy in Min Trung v ngun
in Min Bc thng qua ng dy 500 kV lin kt. Sn lng truyn ti trn giao din
Trung Nam c xu hng tng ln, nm 2013 t mc k lc, khong 9,8 t kWh, chim
17% nhu cu in Min Nam. Truyn ti Bc -> Trung cng c xu hng tng mnh, nm
2013 t 5,3 t kWh [1], ln nht t trc ti nay (xem th).

Hnh 4 Sn lng truyn ti Bc Trung v Trung - Nam g/ 2005-2013

chun b cho kch bn truyn ti cao trn Z 500 kV lin kt min, ngy
5/5/2014, EVN ng in thnh cng thm mch kp Z lin kt Trung Nam: Pleiku
M Phc - Cu Bng, ng thi nm 2014 s hon thnh nng cp ton b dn t b dc
trn Z 500 kV Bc Nam t dng nh mc 1000 A ln 2000 A.
Vn t ra hin nay l: c nn tip tc pht trin thm cc Z 500 kV lin kt Bc
Nam?
tr li cu hi trn, cn phi gii bi ton vn hnh ti u ngun in khi tng dn
dung lng truyn ti lin min. Nm 2009, Vin Nng lng tin hnh nghin cu n
cn i cung cu in cc min nhm tm ra cng sut truyn ti lin kt ti u Bc Nam
v xem xt tng cng Z siu cao xoay chiu (Z HVAC) hoc siu cao p 1 chiu
(HVDC) 500kV [2]. Vi gi thit vic phn b v tin vo cc ngun nhit in l ph
hp vi nhu cu ph ti mi min, m bo cc min t cn i ti a cung - cu, phn
nng lng trao i ph thuc ch yu vo tnh bt ng gia cc biu ph ti v tnh
cht ma ca cc NM thy in, tin hnh tnh ton tng chi ph nhin liu sn xut in
ca ton h thng khi quy m cng sut trao i tng dn t 1000 MW n 3500 MW. Kt
qu c tng hp theo th sau:
Hnh 5. Chi ph SX in khi tng truyn ti Bc Nam bng Z 500 kV xoay chiu
273700
Tng chi ph lu k SX in (triu USD)

273600
Tng chi ph lu k SX in (gm c Z lin kt-Tr.USD)
273500

273400

273300

273200

273100

273000

272900

272800

272700
11
272600
1000MW 1500MW 2000MW 2500MW 3000MW 3500MW
 i vi phng n tng cng truyn ti Bc Nam bng Z xoay chiu HVAC,
nu ch tnh chi ph nhin liu th vic nng dn dung lng truyn ti Bc Nam s gip
vn hnh ti u ngun, gim chi ph ton h thng. Tuy nhin, s gim ny t bo ha khi
dung lng cng sut truyn ti t 2500-3000 MW. Nu xt thm chi ph u t cho
khong 900 km Z AC 500 kV Bc Nam v cc trm b 500 kV trung gian th tng chi ph
h thng c im cc tiu ti P trao i = 2000 MW. Khi dung lng truyn ti tng trn 2500
MW, chi ph u t Z truyn ti tng cao, trong khi chi ph nhin liu khng gim nhiu,
dn ti tng tng chi ph h thng.
i vi phng n tng cng thm 2000 MW dung lng truyn ti qua Z mt
chiu HVDC 500 kV Bc Nam, tng chi ph h thng c xu hng tng mnh. Nguyn
nhn tng do chi ph u t, chi ph tn tht v chi ph vn hnh bo dng cc hng mc
trm chuyn i AC-DC, DC-AC ln hn rt nhiu so vi vic gim chi ph nhin liu do
vn hnh ti u ngun.
Hn na, khong trc nm 2020 tr i, ngun than khai thc trong nc s ch
cho duy tr cc NMN than hin c v ang c xy dng. Hu ht cc NMN than ang
chun b u t s phi s dng than nhp khu. Vi hai th trng than m Vit Nam c
thun li khi nhp khu l c v Indonesia, th vic xy dng thm cc NMN than nhp
min Bc, gy d tha in nng v xy dng thm Z 500kV ti vo min Trung, min
Nam l rt bt hp l, v than nhp s phi vn chuyn t pha Nam ln.
b. Truyn ti Trung - Nam

Nh nu trn, khu vc min Trung c nhu cu ph ti ch chim trn 10% ton

quc (nm 2013 Pmax min Trung 2382MW, bng 11,9% Pmax ton quc 20.010MW),
nhng hin c trn 4.400MW thy in ang vn hnh. Theo QH7, khong 2020 s c
thm 1200MW N than Qung Tr v n 2024 s c khong 1350MW tuabin kh khu
vc Qung Ngi. Gn y Chnh ph cho php nh u t Singapor nghin cu pht
trin NMN than 1200MW ti khu vc Dung Qut, Qung Ngi a vo giai on sau
2020. Trong CQH 7, cng vi vic a kh C Voi xanh vo cp cho khong 2.500MW
(2022) 5.000MW (2029) tuabin kh (thay cho 1350MW tubin kh c ph duyt trong
QH7), min Trung s lun d tha in v chuyn ti min Nam. c bit, nu c thm
mt t my ca NM ht nhn th 3 c xy dng min Trung (khu vc Qung ngi
hoc Bnh nh) th xu th dng in nng t Trung Nam s cng ngy cng cao. Vi 4
mch Z 500kV hin nay s khng th truyn ti ht sn lng in ny. Do vy giai on
2021-2025 cn nng cp li truyn ti: xem xt u t thm cc Z 500 kV mi t Min
Trung vo trung tm ph ti Min Nam, chiu di khong 520 km.
 Khong cch truyn ti 520km c th xem xt phng n truyn ti bng ng dy
HVDC +/- 500 kV [3]. So snh 2 phng n: phng n 1 xy dng mi 01 Z mch kp
xoay chiu 500kV; phng n 2 xy dng mi 01 Z mt chiu mch kp HVDC +/-
500kV. Kt qu tnh ton chi ph u t v chi ph hin ti ha nh bng di y.
Bng 4. So snh phng n truyn ti HVAC v HVDC Trung - Nam

STTPhng n n v HVAC HVDC

1 Vn u t Mil. USD 635 971
2 % Vn u t 100% 153%
3 Chi ph hin ti ha Mil. USD 800.8 1066.4
4 % Chi ph hin ti ha 100% 133%

Phng n HVDC Trung Nam c chi ph u t ln gp 1,5 ln, chi ph hin ti

ha cng cao hn phng n HVAC. Nguyn nhn ch yu l do gi thnh cc trm chuyn
i AC/DC hin ti cn kh cao, trong khi phng n xoay chiu c th tn dng c cc
ng dy 500kV hin c. V mt k thut, Z mt chiu vn hnh tn tht t hn ng k
so vi ng dy xoay chiu do khng phi truyn ti cng sut phn khng. Nhng tn
tht trong cc trm chuyn i AC/DC l kh ln (khong 1,2%). Ngoi ra, vic s dng
in mt chiu s pht sinh nhng vn mi v mt k thut nh hin tng sng hi,
cng hng v cc h thng iu khin, ch bo dng, vn hnh rt phc tp.
Nh vy n nm 2030 s c tng cng 6 mch Z 500kV lin kt Trung-Nam. Hnh
di y minh ha phng n xut tng cng Z 500kV min Trung min Nam
 Hnh 6. S li 500kV lin kt Trung Nam g/ n 2030
Cm ngun N-TBK
HN Trung trung b

Thm TBA
500kV Krng Buk

Cm ngun
N-HN-
PSPP Nam
Trung B
c. Vn gim dng in ngn mch trong li truyn ti

Vn dng in ngn mch tng cao vt ngng cho php bt u xut hin t
nhng nm 2009 tr li y trn li in khu vc Ph M v ph cn (sau khi N Nhn
Trch vn hnh). Min Bc cng bt u xut hin vn n dng in ngn mch sau khi
T Sn La v cc N than khu vc ng Bc vn hnh (t 2010). Qu nhiu ngun v
mt im chnh l nguyn nhn ca dng in ngn mch tng cao.
Theo nguyn l thit k li truyn ti ca CQH7, h thng truyn ti s c
thit k v vn hnh theo cu trc xu th phn tn ha, khng tp trung qu nhiu ngun
vo mt im, cc trm bin p (TBA) truyn ti 500, 220 kV cng phi c thit k linh
hot c kh nng tch thnh 2 phn vn hnh c lp, c lin lc khi cn thit. H thng
in s vn hnh theo cu trc 1 hoc cu trc 2 nh hnh v.
Cu trc 1: li in truyn ti thit k mch vng kp, vn hnh hnh tia (m hnh
Nht Bn).
Hnh 7. Thit k mch vng kp, vn hnh hnh tia
Z
1

Z1
500 kV 500 kV

ZB ZB ZB ZB
mch D phng 220 kV
220 kV

Z5

8
Z 2 Z 3

2 220 kV 2 220 kV 220 kV

2
My ct thng m

Cu trc 1 c s dng rng ri ti Nht Bn [7], cng l m hnh xut trong

QH 5, 6, 7. Kt qu tnh ton ngn mch theo cu trc 1 ca QH 5, 6, 7 cho thy dng
in ngn mch trn li truyn ti m bo trong ngng cho php. Mch d phng ch
c ng li khi xy ra s c qu ti hay thiu ngun cp cho cc trm ln cn. Cu trc 1
chnh l m hnh vn hnh li in phn phi 110 kV hin nay ti khu vc H Ni v TP.
H Ch Minh.
Cu trc 2: li in truyn ti thit k mch vng kp, vn hnh 2 mch vng n.

Hnh 8. Thit k mch vng kp vn hnh hai mch vng n

Z1

Z1
500 kV 500 kV

ZB ZB ZB ZB
Z4
220 kV 220 kV
Z
3
Z5
Z2
220 kV 220 kV
Z Z
B B
220 kV

ZB
110 kV 110 kV
110 kV
My ct thng m

Cu trc 2 c u im hn cu trc 1 ch, cc l Z 500 220 kV u mang in,

khng mt thi gian chuyn mch h tr khi s c nh cu trc 1.
Theo kt qu tnh ton ngn mch li truyn ti Vit Nam nm 2030 p dng cu
trc 1 v cu trc 2 ti ti NCKH cp b cc gii php gim dng ngn mch trn li
truyn ti, ng dng ti khu vc Min ng Nam b ca Vin nng lng nm 2011 [8],
dng ngn mch ti cc thanh ci 500, 220 kV nm trong ngng cho php (xem bng
di). Cu trc 2 ang c ng dng s vn hnh h thng in 400 275 kV ca
Anh [9].
Bng 5. kt qu tnh ton ngn mch khi vn hnh lin thng li truyn ti v

vn hnh theo cu trc 1, cu trc 2

In(3) In(1)
Tn Bus in p (kV) n v
VH lin thng Cu trc 1 Cu trc 2 VH lin thng Cu trc 1 Cu trc 2
CAUBONG 500 AMPS 70,030 49,436 49,769 52,145 22,192 35,844
B.DUONG1 500 AMPS 62,455 47,192 49,089 49,231 30,360 37,371
PHULAM 500 AMPS 60,826 32,011 32,806 47,638 20,563 23,206
SONGMAY 500 AMPS 60,178 40,814 44,059 47,123 28,791 33,436
TANDINH 500 AMPS 59,302 40,184 42,688 45,154 27,016 32,302
MYPHUOC 500 AMPS 58,216 36,115 37,065 42,150 21,629 26,260
NHABE 500 AMPS 56,560 29,616 29,708 46,564 23,119 22,642
PHUMY 500 AMPS 53,712 50,070 51,398 51,778 48,341 49,922
PHUMY1 220 AMPS 85,155 37,146 37,451 80,598 41,141 38,248
CAUBONG 220 AMPS 77,888 38,606 34,239 59,714 30,009 25,409
NDNTRACH 220 AMPS 77,717 38,255 37,753 66,201 37,806 37,413
CATLAI 220 AMPS 76,029 29,143 24,689 52,701 21,218 17,583
CUCHI 220 AMPS 73,708 28,351 39,901 53,419 22,768 30,603
TAODAN 220 AMPS 71,776 29,726 28,944 49,352 23,528 21,934
THUTHIEM 220 AMPS 70,835 25,734 26,240 48,144 17,964 19,039
TANCANG 220 AMPS 70,558 27,073 22,051 47,966 20,542 15,356
TAMPHUOC 220 AMPS 66,262 25,482 27,785 43,616 18,998 19,359
HB.PHUOC 220 AMPS 65,457 15,325 26,848 42,710 11,366 17,983
LONGBINH 220 AMPS 63,908 15,870 25,407 41,964 11,836 17,463
MYXUAN 220 AMPS 63,804 33,730 20,276 48,415 31,466 16,244

li in c th vn hnh linh hot (nh cu trc 1, cu trc 2 trn), vic la

chn s thanh ci cc TBA truyn ti c ngha quyt nh. Cc nc pht trin u c
nhng s thanh ci quy chun, ng thi ban hnh nhng hng dn k thut hoc s
tay thit k trm, nhm m bo s nht qun v pht trin bn vng ca h thng in [10],
[11]. Vit Nam cng cn thit sm a ra cc hng dn k thut i vi s thanh ci
TBA truyn ti.
Hin nay Vin Nng lng ang khn trng nghin cu cc vn v ngun, cc
vn v li truyn ti vn ang c tip tc nghin cu cui nm trnh B Cng
Thng v Th tng chnh ph. C th cn mt s vn s tip tc c iu chnh,
xut. Vi khun kh mt bi tham lun trong hi tho, cc tc gi hy vng nu c mt
vi vn lin quan n rt nhiu vn trong ANNL i vi HT Vit Nam. V nhu cu
in, vic iu chnh d bo nhu cu cn theo xu hng s dng in hiu qu, tit kim,
gim bt gnh nng u t v tiu tn ti nguyn NL trong nc, gim bt nhp khu, gim
bt s ph thuc bn ngoi. V c cu pht trin ngun in, cn thit phi khuyn khch v
c c ch hp l tng cng t trng ngun NLTT, gim bt pht thi gy hiu ng nh
knh, ph hp vi nh hng tng trng xanh v pht trin bn vng. V li truyn ti,
cn thit quy hoch cu trc li hp l, ph hp vi iu kin phn b ti nguyn, ph hp
vi b tr cc ngun in v trung tm ph ti, gim tn tht, hn ch truyn ti xa, gim bt
dng ngn mch Hy vng cc vn nu ra s c cc chuyn gia khoa hc, cc nh
qun l trong ngnh nng lng chia s ng gp CQH7 c hon thnh tt nht,
ng gp cho HT ngy cng cung cp in an ton, tin cy v hiu qu./.