Keynote Speaker of the 19th congress of IAHR-APD

Keynote Speaker

Prof. Tran Thuc, Vietnam Institute of Metrology, Hydrology and

Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam
Title of the Speech

Climate Extremes and Climate Change in Viet Nam

Personal Profile

Tran Thuc is the Chairman of the Vietnam National Committee for the International
Hydrological Program (IHP), and Co-Chairman of the Vietnam - US Working Group on
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation.

He holds qualifications in Hydrology and a Doctoral degree in Hydraulics and Coastal

Engineering.

He was the Lead Author of the Vietnam National Target Program to Respond to
Climate Change, the Vietnam Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for
Vietnam, Vietnam National Scientific Program on Climate Change and "Vietnam
National Action Plan to Respond to Climate Change. He also involve in the
development of the "Vietnam National Strategy on Climate Change".

He has publications on climate change projection, climate change impacts

assessment on different sectors, adaptation, and mainstream climate change into
development program, greenhouse gas inventory and baseline setting.

Abstract:

Climate Extremes and Climate Change in Viet Nam

The paper presents the current status and projected changes in climate extremes, climate
change, and related natural disasters in Viet Nam.
Climate extremes are climate phenomena that are: rare, having only a relatively low
frequency over a long period of time, intense in nature, and can cause severe adverse impact
either directly or indirectly.

Changes in the following climate extremes were analyzed: mean, maximum and minimum
daily temperature; Hot day and cold night, cold front, heat wave; annual rainfall, rainfall in
dry and wet season, extreme rainfall; typhoon; flood, flash flood and drought among others. A
clear relationship between climate change and climate extremes in Viet Nam was established.

Changes of the climate extremes were also projected, and climate change scenarios
developed. The results showed: A decrease in rainfall intensity and length of the monsoon
season; A decrease in frequency and an unclear trend in intensity for tropical cyclones; A
decrease in extreme rainfall along the east coast while an increase is seen in Central
Highlands; More frequent droughts and long-term droughts with higher severity; More
frequent and longer heat waves over Viet Nam with higher severity in the south.

Sea level could rise up to 1 m by the end of the century. If sea level rise 1 m then 39% of the
Mekong Delta, over 10% of the Red River Delta, over 2,5% of the Central Coastal zone, over
20% of Ho Chi Minh city will be inundated; 35% population living in the Mekong Delta, over
9% in the Red River delta, about 9% in the Central zone, and 7% in HCM City would be
directly affected.

Recommendations for the application of climate extreme projection and climate change
scenarios are then drawn.