Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

APEC: Trumps Address to
APEC CEO Forum
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 10, 2017

What is your assessment of Trump's speech on the Indo Pacific at the APEC CEO
Forum in Da Nang? From our perspective It looks pretty dark and threatening; and it
does take aim at Beijing.
ANSWER:
President Trump's speech to the APEC CEO Forum laid out starkly his America First
approach - "my way or no way." Trump, like the real estate salesman he is, wrapped
up his deal with reassurance of respect for fairness, reciprocity and sovereignty of
prospective trade partners. Negotiations were to be bilateral; but Trump's offer was
a one-way street.
Trump showed disdain for multilateral approaches and thus undermined APEC's
objective of achieving trade and investment liberalisation on a multilateral basis.
Trump has a zero sum view of trade, all trade must be balanced. Regional states
cannot walk away because they need access to the American market. Regional states
will continue to pursue multilateral arrangements. ASEAN and China will continue
talks on raising the level of their free trade agreement. ASEAN, China and other
dialogue partners (minus the United States) will continue discussing the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership. And eleven key economies, who are APEC
members, will also push negotiations on a TPP 11, also without the United States.
is pushing the development of an ASEAN Economic Community. They cannot count
on U.S. support. Trump's push for bilateral FTAs will isolate the United States in the
region. ASEAN
On a positive note, Trump fired a shot across the bow of China's Belt and Road
Initiative by advocating a greater role for the World Bank and Asian Development
Bank in funding infrastructure development in the region. However, regional
demands for infrastructure funding are so great Trump's new approach will have to
compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, APEC: Trumps Address to APEC CEO Forum,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 10, 2017. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.