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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 8 月 26 日
市场技术解读
一旦失守 1,390 点关卡和 10 日移动平均线,调整期将获得确认…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于有更多迹象显示全球经济将放缓,这触发亚洲股市的凌厉跌势,同时也拖累富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)向空方投
降,并宣告失守 1,400 点心理关口。
♦ 投资者决定锁定短期利润,基于美国现成房屋销量所取得较预期严重的跌势导致隔夜道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)创下 3 位数跌
幅。
♦ 此外,大部分的区域股市也陷入进一步的调整,鉴于投资者日益担忧全球经济可能会再度衰退。即使日本政府警告它可能会
对日元的近日凌厉涨势进行干预,但日经 225 指数还是无动于衷,反而继续急挫 1.67% 至全年新低。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 技术而言,阴烛的形成确认了之前的两根“上吊线”(hangman)和“8 至 10 根蜡烛”反转型态。
♦ 加上短期动力指标也转下,富时综指料将会在即日内进一步回档。
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
Page 1 of 6
2010 年 8 月 26 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 加上疲弱的短期动力指标,这标志着短期套利跌势或已开始。
♦ 一旦丢失这些短期扶持水平,这将会确认主要指数的近日上升趋势已陷入短期调整格局。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 19 日 20 日 23 日 24 日 25 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,396.97 -8.80 -0.6
407 316 291 206 186
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,137.26 -65.72 -0.7
321 394 465 585 585
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,738.70 -48.14 -1.3
293 327 270 241 268
无交易 各大海外指数
352 334 345 335 328
道琼斯工商指数 10,060.06 19.61 0.2
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,141.54 17.78 0.8
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,055.33 3.46 0.3
(百万股) 983 834 805 894 873
伦敦金融时报指数 5,109.40 -46.55 -0.9
总成交值 恒生指数 20,634.98 -23.73 -0.1
(百万令吉) 1,700 1,341 1,338 1,651 1,732 雅加达综合指数 3,138.91 23.97 0.8
东京日经 225 指数 8,845.39 -149.75 -1.7
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,734.79 -25.74 -1.5
令吉兑美元 3.1330 3.1360 3.1310 3.1435 3.1393 上海综合指数 2,596.58 -53.73 -2.0
曼谷综合指数 884.51 -5.94 -0.7
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 2,926.55 3.70 0.1
台湾加权指数 7,736.98 -203.66 -2.6
印度 Sensex 指数 18,179.64 -131.95 -0.7
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 72.52 0.47 0.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,486.00 -24.00 -1.0
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 8 月 26 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 随着更多套利活动涌现,本地期货市场于周三一连第 2 日扩大跌势,这主要因为海外交投情绪在隔夜美国股市暴跌后转恶。
♦ 随着它取得一根“看跌抱线型态”(bearish engulfing),这显示市场将在即日内进一步回调。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 从昨日的“看跌抱线型态”看来,它已准备面对更多短期回档走势。
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1399.00 1400.00 1390.00 1393.50 -5.50 1393.50 6879 15916
10 年 9 月 1399.00 1400.00 1388.50 1390.50 -8.00 1390.50 4400 2909
10 年 12 月 1396.50 1399.50 1387.50 1390.00 -8.00 1391.50 253 456
11 年 3 月 1399.50 1399.50 1390.00 1393.50 -4.50 1392.50 35 178
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 8 月 26 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 经过早盘的显著抛风后,美国主要指数周三在新趁低吸购活动下展开一轮凌厉技术反弹。
♦ 惟之后,新趁低吸购活动重新显现,主要因为投资者认为,市场最近已跌过头,而疲弱的新房屋销量数据也可能意味着房屋
领域的最坏时刻已结束。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 在图表上,它划出一根“正面孕线型态”(positive harami),显示近日的卖压动力已缓和下来。加上它有能力守住
10,000 点关口,它今日可能会进一步反弹。
♦ 它形成一根巨大“看涨吞没型态”(bullish engulfing),显示来日将会有更多反弹。因此,它可能会在近日尝试填补位于
2,159.44 点的技术缺口和试叩 2,190 点关卡。
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 8 月 26 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶吉申(
吉申( Jetson)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶吉申(
吉申(单日线图)
单日线图)
中期展望维持看淡…
中期展望维持看淡
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM1.274
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM1.395
♦ 支撑水平
支撑水平: IS = RM1.10 S1 = RM0.80 S2 = RM0.50
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
Page 6 of 6