Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

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Russia: Making Military and
Political Waves in Cambodia
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 13, 2017

I'm currently working on a report on Russian-Cambodian relations and would

appreciate your assessment of these recent developments:
Russia's Dmitry Medvedev met with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen during the
ASEAN summit.
During the meeting, Medvedev and Hun Sen agreed to established a working group
to resolve Cambodia's debt to Russia.
Russia also pledged to provide assistance to Cambodia for next year's national
election. The support would consist of sending a team of observers to monitor the
election.
Russia last week also held a military drill with Cambodia after two of its warships
paid a visit to the Kingdom.
All these moves from Russia come on the heels of a tense political situation in
Cambodia, which has consisted of a political crackdown that could soon see the
opposition party dissolved.
Q1. How likely do you think it would be for Russia to write-off Cambodia's debt?
ANSWER: If we take the prolonged Russia-Vietnam discussions on debt repayment
after the Soviet Union collapsed as an example, I would say the chances of a write-
off are not good. The two sides must decide on the exchange rate. Russia is
amenable to payment by goods and services. If Moscow is seeking a toehold in
Cambodia, such as a port or special facilities for Russian tourists, it will offset
Cambodia's debt for these facilities and services.
Q2 Is Russias support for Cambodias 2018 elections an effort or strategic move by
the Cambodian government to have at least one country backing up its election
results?
ANSWER: Misery loves company. Russia is somewhat isolated because of
its involvement the Crimea and Ukraine. Cambodia will become increasingly isolated
as national elections in 2018 approach. Both sides benefit politically by having
Russian observers in Cambodia for national elections.
 2

Q3. What are your overall thoughts on why Russia might be re-establishing its ties
with Cambodia at a time when other countries, like the U.S., have even threatened
to impose sanctions on Cambodia, given its political atmosphere?
ANSWER: Russia acts as a spoiler in response to European and United States
sanctions. It works with China in a marriage of convenience to spite Washington.
At the same time Russia is anxious and concerned about China's rise and its Belt and
Road Initiative through Central Asia. Russia seeks any means to break out of isolation
to portray itself as an influential major power. Putin will be completely unconcerned
about domestic politics in Cambodia. He will be after access to Cambodia to
complicate the emergence of a coalition of democracies in the Into-Pacific
(Japan, India, US and Australia). The bottom line for Russia is to oppose foreign
interference in its internal affairs (as Moscow sees it); and developing ties with
Cambodia is Moscow's way of signalling two can play the game.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Russia: Making Military and Political Waves in
Cambodia, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 13, 2017. All
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