11

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123
Duterte and Trump: Will the
Alliance Hold?
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 11, 2017

Q1. Can we get your assessment of the upcoming meeting between Presidents
Rodrigo Duterte and Donald Trump in Manila next week? What is the significance of
that meeting?
ANSWER: President Duterte is the only government leader in Southeast Asia who did
not accept an invitation from President Trump to pay a visit to Washington. Duterte
holds two positions - ASEAN Chair and President of the Philippines, a treaty ally of
the United States. The former role will end shortly but in protocol terms this is a
positive signal that Trump supports ASEAN. The meeting in Manila is significant
because it will be in a relatively controlled environment, a meeting at The White
House would have attracted congressional criticism and demonstrations in the street
over human rights abuses arising from Dutertes anti-drug camapign. The focus in
the Manila will be the issues that the two leaders have agreed to discuss.
Q2. Will it mend strained relations between the two allies and do you see it as an
opportunity for Trump to stop the Philippine's pivot to China?
ANSWER: Duterte has an anti-American streak that he vented against President
Obama. Duterte has been more circumspect since Trump's election. The meeting will
not stop the Philippines from developing closer ties with China. Every country in the
region and the United States are doing so. This meeting will sustain the alliance but
not revive it. Duterte will still be opposed to any hig- profile U.S. military rotation as
agreed under the Aquino administration. Duterte, however, is grateful for U.S.
counter-terrorism support especially during the siege of Marawi. In sum, the
meeting will see a re-set in bilateral relations and progress will be gradual.
Q3. Should Trump raise human rights issue in the Philippines amid Duterte's bloody
war on drugs, which was criticized by former U.S. President Obama?
ANSWER: The answer is "yes" the American president should raise human rights as
Obama did with Hun Sen when he visited Phnom Penh to attend an ASEAN Summit.
But Trump is no ordinary president; his behavjour has dimmed the proverbial
American beacon on the hill. Trump exudes contradictions, he rails against
Venezuela, the Assad regime in Syria and North Korea but is quiet on human rights
abuses in the region including most notably the Philippines.
 2

The United States to be true to its values and respect for the rule of law should be
consistent. In the present context raising human rights would be counter-productive.
Duterte could fly off the handle and scuttle the alliance. Human rights are best
addressed bilaterally through dialogue not through megaphone diplomacy.
Human rights should form part of the U.S. National Security Strategy which was due
to be presented to Congress 150 days after Trump took office. A Trump national
security strategy may emerge in the first half of 2018 at the earliest.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Duterte and Trump: Will the Alliance Hold?,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 11, 2017. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.