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Sagaing Fault and Its Associate Components

Yangon Technological University

Engineering Geology Department

tls@mail4u.com.mm

Objectives of work

To envisage possible segmentation or

different seismic activities along the Sagaing

Fault

To determine the mean annual rate of

exceedance of earthquakes (m) with

magnitude greater than M of different

segments and sheared zones along the

Sagaing Fault

To work out Gutenberg-Richter parameters (a

and b) for each predetermined area

Method of study

Acquisition of earthquake data and preparation of

base map in digital format

Analyzing spatial distribution of earthquake

occurrences

Defining the different segments and source areas of

different activities

Calculation of Gutenberg-Richter parameters on the

basis of source area, relative frequency of earthquake

occurrences in each area, and temporal correlation

Analysis tool pack (Spread Sheet, SURFER7,

MATLAB7 )

Earthquake

Random Process in a

given region

Related to the

seismogenic source

Earthquake (Parametric components)

Over a period of time,

Source the threat of seismic

excitation to a given

Occurrence time system at a given site

Epicenter location can be due to events at

different times and of

Magnitude different magnitudes,

distances, focal depths

Depth and rupture surface

Rupture surface geometries and

features.

geometry

Source: The randomness and uncertainty

Adapted from

International

Handbook of

Engineering

Seismology and

Earthquake

Engineering

(2004)

Occurrence Time

The random occurrence in time can be

modeled by random processes

Bernoulli and Poisson processes are

time independent

The probability of number of

occurrences depends only on the time

interval considered and is independent

of the calendar time and past history.

Epicenter Location

The exact location of a future earthquake

epicenter is unknown.

Random spatial distribution models can be

used for this purpose.

In the context of a Poisson occurrence model,

one can express the mean occurrence rate of

future events per unit area as function of the

location v(x, y) for an area source and as

function along the line source.

Magnitude

The occurrence rate of events in a given

region, the random magnitude and

spatial distribution of epicenter given

the occurrence in time can be used to

model the temporal and spatial

randomness of future events

LogM = a b M (Gutenberg and

Richter, 1966; Housner, 1970)

The Sagaing Fault named after Win Swe (1981)

29

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103

29

6. 7.

28 28

27 27

INDIA

3.

5.5

26 26

Lowland of Myanmar

Myitkyina

Western 25

2.

25

Fold Sagaing 24

2.5 5.

CHINA

24

Belt Fault

Active fault 23 Lashio 23

Haka

BAN- Mandalay

22 GLA- 22

DESH

Sagaing Fault

Keng Tung

1.

Annual Yangon

rate of

21 21

Sittway

20 3.2 20

Bagodisplacement is about 20 19 19

Yoma

25 mm per year (GIAC,

18 18

THAILAND

2000) 16

5.5

BURMA

2.5

EXPLANATION

16

15 PLATE 15

14 Subduction zone 14

Centre

Andaman Rift

4.

12 12

11 Active Interface 11

3.7

10 10

Distribution of earthquake events (1975-2006 August 31)

Data Source: http://www.usgs.gov.eq/

West

records are Boundary

added of the Bago

Yoma

Magnitude Scale

2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9

5 to 5.9

6 to 6.9

Spreading Centre

7 to 7.5

Sampling and counting net

0 4 4 1 1 0

1 1 4 4 1 1 0

0 1

0

11 2 0 0 0 0

Counting net

0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0

0 1 2 2 4 5 2 1 1 0 0.25 x 0.25 Degree;

0 3 5 7 8 3 3 2 0

0

0

6

6

9 5 3 5 6 4 0

8 2 1 7 13 10 1 1

625 square kilometers

0 0 2 2 1 2 4 15 14 6 3

0 2 3 5 5 11 11 9 6

0 1 4 5 6 7 7 4 3 2

0 1 2 5 7 8 6 1 1 0

0 1 1 2 7 11 11 5 3 1

0 11 1 7 12 11 7 3 1

0 1 9 12 12 10 4 0

0 1 4 10 17 13 5 0

0 6 9 10 13 10 4 0

0 7 15 12 9 7 5 1

0 3 10 13 12 4 4 3

0 2 3 4 12 21 14 9 6

0 3 4 2 7 17 15 7 5

0 2 2 0 5 9 6 3 2

0 1 1 1 6 6 3 2 1

0 2 4 4 1 0 0

Defining sources (Spatial correlation)

Assumption-1:

Locality of

occurrence of an

earthquake is

connected to

distinct regional

geological

structural

lineament like fault

Assumption-2:

Each source or

segment has linear

continuity to a

certain limit.

Area of interest (AOI)

Yangon

km radius

centered at

Yangon

Source partitioning

Partition of

seismic sources is

based on area of

evenly distributed

earthquake

occurrences in

connection with

surface traces of

geological

structural

framework.

Generating mesh

9 1

2

8 7 3

6 4

5

Each tectonic segment or

component shows different

seismic activity.

Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)

The frequencies of earthquakes, N

M

N = AN 0 exp Equation-1

B

dN 1 M Equation-1a

n= = AN 0 exp

dM B B

Where N = the number per year of shallow earthquakes

having magnitude equal to or greater than M in area A

N0 = the annual number of shocks per unit area

B = Seismic severity (Distribution parameter)

M = Magnitude

Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)

For purpose of plotting, it is customary to put Eq. 1 in the form

log10 m = a bM Equation-2

1

a = log10 AN 0

B

b = 2.3B

a and b are Gutenberg-Richter parameters

Areas

Sr No. Area (km2) N0 B

1 9570 0.00156 1

2 3564 0.00254 1

3 5580 0.00221 1

4 4620 0.00203 0.917

5 33177.6 0.00035 0.875

6 3663 0.00317 0.75

7 7216 0.0013 0.917

8 8178 0.00136 1

9 7050 0.00165 1.421

Output (Gutenberg-Richter parameters)

Sr. No a b

1 0.75967 0.35759

2 0.54407 0.43422

3 0.6721 0.43422

4 0.59827 0.47369

5 0.71078 0.44345

6 0.77608 0.3799

7 0.59671 0.47369

8 0.63144 0.43422

9 0.49976 0.43422

Application of Gutenberg-

Richter Law to seismicity of

the southern segment of the

9 1

Sagaing Fault 2

8 7 3

6 4

log m = 0.0.54407 0.43422 M ..............(area 2)

log m = 0.6721 0.43422 M ...................(area 3)

log m = 0.59827 0.47369 M .................(area 4)

log m = 0.71078 0.44345M .................(area 5)

log m = 0.77608 0.3799M ...................(area 6)

log m = 0.59671 0.47369 M .................(area 7)

log m = 0.63144 0.43422 M .................(area 8)

log m = 0.49976 0.43422 M .................(area 9)

Return Period, T (Year)

9 1

2

8 7 3

6 4

5

Bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law

small earthquakes are of little interest

If earthquakes smaller than a lower threshold

magnitude m0 are eliminated, the mean annual

rate of exceedance becomes

exp[ (m m0 )] exp[ (mmax m0 )]

m =

1 exp[ (mmax m0 )] McGuire

m0 m mmax and

= 2.303a Arabaz

(1990)

= 2.303b

= exp( m0 )

Comparing two process:

4.0 and Mmax= 7.5

The standard law covers an infinite range of magnitudes

In bounded G-R law, increasing the maximum magnitude requires a substantial

decrease in the mean annual rate of exceedance of lower magnitude events

Implications

Standard law covers infinite range of

magnitudes

The results from the standard law give

reasonable prediction in the regions

Bounded G-R law starts from the

threshold magnitude m0; here, M= 4.0,

and the upper limit is Mmax =7.5

Implications

Bounded G-R law gives smaller mean

annual rate of exceedance and longer

time span for lager event

These events are rare in the region in

compare with the results from the

standard law and on the record list

Conclusion

Analysis of mean annual rate of exceedance

of earthquake magnitude (m) is carried out

by applying both standard Gu-R Recurrence

law and Bounded Gu-R law

Prediction of earthquake return period and

(m) is reasonably obtained by the standard

law

The a and b (Gutenberg-Richter parameters)

are resulted from the standard law

Recommendations

Present study applies current earthquake

data file (1975 2006) with some local

earthquake records particularly larger events.

Therefore, it should be further added the

historic earthquakes to complete the regional

seismicity

For larger events, the prediction of return

period would be verified by geological or

palaeo-seismological evidence

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