You are on page 1of 29

Application of Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law to

Seismicity Analysis of Southern Segment of the


Sagaing Fault and Its Associate Components

Tint Lwin Swe


Yangon Technological University
Engineering Geology Department
tls@mail4u.com.mm
Objectives of work
To envisage possible segmentation or
different seismic activities along the Sagaing
Fault
To determine the mean annual rate of
exceedance of earthquakes (m) with
magnitude greater than M of different
segments and sheared zones along the
Sagaing Fault
To work out Gutenberg-Richter parameters (a
and b) for each predetermined area
Method of study
Acquisition of earthquake data and preparation of
base map in digital format
Analyzing spatial distribution of earthquake
occurrences
Defining the different segments and source areas of
different activities
Calculation of Gutenberg-Richter parameters on the
basis of source area, relative frequency of earthquake
occurrences in each area, and temporal correlation
Analysis tool pack (Spread Sheet, SURFER7,
MATLAB7 )
Earthquake

Random Process in a
given region
Related to the
seismogenic source
Earthquake (Parametric components)
Over a period of time,
Source the threat of seismic
excitation to a given
Occurrence time system at a given site
Epicenter location can be due to events at
different times and of
Magnitude different magnitudes,
distances, focal depths
Depth and rupture surface
Rupture surface geometries and
features.
geometry
Source: The randomness and uncertainty

Adapted from
International
Handbook of
Engineering
Seismology and
Earthquake
Engineering
(2004)
Occurrence Time
The random occurrence in time can be
modeled by random processes
Bernoulli and Poisson processes are
time independent
The probability of number of
occurrences depends only on the time
interval considered and is independent
of the calendar time and past history.
Epicenter Location
The exact location of a future earthquake
epicenter is unknown.
Random spatial distribution models can be
used for this purpose.
In the context of a Poisson occurrence model,
one can express the mean occurrence rate of
future events per unit area as function of the
location v(x, y) for an area source and as
function along the line source.
Magnitude
The occurrence rate of events in a given
region, the random magnitude and
spatial distribution of epicenter given
the occurrence in time can be used to
model the temporal and spatial
randomness of future events
LogM = a b M (Gutenberg and
Richter, 1966; Housner, 1970)
The Sagaing Fault named after Win Swe (1981)
29
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103
29

About 1000 km long


6. 7.
28 28

crossing the Central


27 27
INDIA
3.

5.5
26 26

Lowland of Myanmar
Myitkyina

Western 25
2.
25

Fold Sagaing 24
2.5 5.
CHINA
24

Belt Fault
Active fault 23 Lashio 23
Haka
BAN- Mandalay
22 GLA- 22
DESH

Sagaing Fault
Keng Tung
1.

Annual Yangon
rate of
21 21

Sittway
20 3.2 20

Bagodisplacement is about 20 19 19

Yoma
25 mm per year (GIAC,
18 18
THAILAND

17 INDIA PLATE Yangon 17

2000) 16
5.5

BURMA
2.5

EXPLANATION
16

15 PLATE 15

14 Subduction zone 14

Spreading 13 Collision zone 13

Centre

Andaman Rift
4.

12 12

11 Active Interface 11

3.7
10 10

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103


Distribution of earthquake events (1975-2006 August 31)
Data Source: http://www.usgs.gov.eq/

Some local Sagaing Fault


West
records are Boundary
added of the Bago
Yoma
Magnitude Scale
2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9

5 to 5.9

6 to 6.9
Spreading Centre
7 to 7.5
Sampling and counting net
0 4 4 1 1 0
1 1 4 4 1 1 0
0 1
0
11 2 0 0 0 0
Counting net
0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0
0 1 2 2 4 5 2 1 1 0 0.25 x 0.25 Degree;
0 3 5 7 8 3 3 2 0
0
0
6
6
9 5 3 5 6 4 0
8 2 1 7 13 10 1 1
625 square kilometers
0 0 2 2 1 2 4 15 14 6 3
0 2 3 5 5 11 11 9 6
0 1 4 5 6 7 7 4 3 2
0 1 2 5 7 8 6 1 1 0
0 1 1 2 7 11 11 5 3 1
0 11 1 7 12 11 7 3 1
0 1 9 12 12 10 4 0
0 1 4 10 17 13 5 0
0 6 9 10 13 10 4 0
0 7 15 12 9 7 5 1
0 3 10 13 12 4 4 3
0 2 3 4 12 21 14 9 6
0 3 4 2 7 17 15 7 5
0 2 2 0 5 9 6 3 2
0 1 1 1 6 6 3 2 1
0 2 4 4 1 0 0
Defining sources (Spatial correlation)
Assumption-1:
Locality of
occurrence of an
earthquake is
connected to
distinct regional
geological
structural
lineament like fault
Assumption-2:
Each source or
segment has linear
continuity to a
certain limit.
Area of interest (AOI)

Yangon

AOI is about 200


km radius
centered at
Yangon
Source partitioning

Partition of
seismic sources is
based on area of
evenly distributed
earthquake
occurrences in
connection with
surface traces of
geological
structural
framework.
Generating mesh

9 1
2
8 7 3
6 4

5
Each tectonic segment or
component shows different
seismic activity.
Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)
The frequencies of earthquakes, N

M
N = AN 0 exp Equation-1
B
dN 1 M Equation-1a
n= = AN 0 exp
dM B B
Where N = the number per year of shallow earthquakes
having magnitude equal to or greater than M in area A
N0 = the annual number of shocks per unit area
B = Seismic severity (Distribution parameter)
M = Magnitude
Gutenberg and Richter recurrence Law (1966)
For purpose of plotting, it is customary to put Eq. 1 in the form

log10 m = a bM Equation-2

1
a = log10 AN 0
B
b = 2.3B
a and b are Gutenberg-Richter parameters
Areas
Sr No. Area (km2) N0 B
1 9570 0.00156 1
2 3564 0.00254 1
3 5580 0.00221 1
4 4620 0.00203 0.917
5 33177.6 0.00035 0.875
6 3663 0.00317 0.75
7 7216 0.0013 0.917
8 8178 0.00136 1
9 7050 0.00165 1.421
Output (Gutenberg-Richter parameters)
Sr. No a b
1 0.75967 0.35759
2 0.54407 0.43422
3 0.6721 0.43422
4 0.59827 0.47369
5 0.71078 0.44345
6 0.77608 0.3799
7 0.59671 0.47369
8 0.63144 0.43422
9 0.49976 0.43422
Application of Gutenberg-
Richter Law to seismicity of
the southern segment of the
9 1
Sagaing Fault 2
8 7 3
6 4

log m = 0.75967 0.35759 M .................(area 1)


log m = 0.0.54407 0.43422 M ..............(area 2)
log m = 0.6721 0.43422 M ...................(area 3)
log m = 0.59827 0.47369 M .................(area 4)
log m = 0.71078 0.44345M .................(area 5)
log m = 0.77608 0.3799M ...................(area 6)
log m = 0.59671 0.47369 M .................(area 7)
log m = 0.63144 0.43422 M .................(area 8)
log m = 0.49976 0.43422 M .................(area 9)
Return Period, T (Year)

9 1
2
8 7 3
6 4

5
Bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law

For engineering purposes, the effects of very


small earthquakes are of little interest
If earthquakes smaller than a lower threshold
magnitude m0 are eliminated, the mean annual
rate of exceedance becomes
exp[ (m m0 )] exp[ (mmax m0 )]
m =
1 exp[ (mmax m0 )] McGuire
m0 m mmax and
= 2.303a Arabaz
(1990)
= 2.303b
= exp( m0 )
Comparing two process:

Bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law for M0 = Standard Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law


4.0 and Mmax= 7.5
The standard law covers an infinite range of magnitudes
In bounded G-R law, increasing the maximum magnitude requires a substantial
decrease in the mean annual rate of exceedance of lower magnitude events
Implications
Standard law covers infinite range of
magnitudes
The results from the standard law give
reasonable prediction in the regions
Bounded G-R law starts from the
threshold magnitude m0; here, M= 4.0,
and the upper limit is Mmax =7.5
Implications
Bounded G-R law gives smaller mean
annual rate of exceedance and longer
time span for lager event
These events are rare in the region in
compare with the results from the
standard law and on the record list
Conclusion
Analysis of mean annual rate of exceedance
of earthquake magnitude (m) is carried out
by applying both standard Gu-R Recurrence
law and Bounded Gu-R law
Prediction of earthquake return period and
(m) is reasonably obtained by the standard
law
The a and b (Gutenberg-Richter parameters)
are resulted from the standard law
Recommendations
Present study applies current earthquake
data file (1975 2006) with some local
earthquake records particularly larger events.
Therefore, it should be further added the
historic earthquakes to complete the regional
seismicity
For larger events, the prediction of return
period would be verified by geological or
palaeo-seismological evidence