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VOL 36 september 2016 EMPRES-AnimalHealth@fao.org | www.fao.org/ag/empres.html
FAO contributors: Caryl Lockhart, Silvia Kreindel, Claudia Pittiglio, Martina Escher, Sophie von Dobschuetz, Ludovic Plee, Elisa Palamara, Mirko Bruni, Juan
Lubroth, Julio Pinto, Eran Raizman, Markos Tibbo and Bruno Minjauw
Low: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia cause HPAI are highly virulent and mortality
Contents Negligible: Cyprus rates in infected domestic flocks often
The situation in the region is of concern approach 90100 percent. Several HPAI
Summary 1 given the existing poultry populations at virus strains are zoonotic, including some
risk and the potential for spread between H5N1 strains, with fatal outcomes. For most
Introduction 1 countries. Given the presence of civil unrest of the human cases an epidemiological link
and active civil war in some countries of the such as direct contact with live, infected
Risk questions 3 region, investment in agriculture and livestock poultry has been reported.
is reduced, including limitations to public The H5N1 HPAI virus is endemic in
Hazard identification 3 veterinary services. Underreporting of animal areas of South and Southeast Asia (mixture
disease events is a significant challenge given of clades 2.1.1, 2.3.1 and 2.3.2.1a and c)
Risk assessment 3
the lack of reporting systems in those areas and Egypt (clades 2.2.1 and 2.2.1.2), and
Factors contributing to with ongoing conflict. It is therefore possible is currently circulating in West Africa (clade
that, in addition to Iraq and Lebanon, the 2.3.2.1c) after reintroduction in December
introduction and spread
disease is already present in the Syrian Arab 2014. Recent (early 2015) incursions of clade
of the virus in the region 5 Republic. The cause of the recent incursions 2.3.2.1c have occurred in Europe (Bulgaria,
into the region is currently unknown but a Romania and Turkey) in both wild birds and
Conclusions 6
combination of wild birds seeding infection1 poultry (Food and Agriculture Organization of
Bibliography 7 and trade with neighbouring countries is the United Nations (FAO), 2015) (see Figure
likely. Poultry and poultry-related trade and 1d for H5N1 HPAI outbreak distribution by
movements play an important role in national country during the 2015/16 season). The
and cross-border spread. The overall risk virus has occurred sporadically in countries
Summary for the region in terms of potential spread to in the Middle East since 2006 and within
uninfected countries ranges from negligible the last year was reported either officially
T
his risk assessment provides an to high depending on the country with Iran or unofficially in both poultry and wild birds.
estimate of the likelihood of introduction (Islamic Republic of), Israel, Jordan, the Syrian Since 2006, incursions of H5N1 HPAI were
of H5N1 HPAI from recently infected Arab Republic and Turkey being at highest risk observed at different times in Gaza Strip, Iran
countries (Lebanon and Iraq) to other countries of incursion. The current H5N1 HPAI epizootic (Islamic Republic of), Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,
in the Middle East region and neighbouring is expected to have a potential impact on food Saudi Arabia, Turkey, The West Bank and
territories as a result of the movement of live security, human health and poultry-dependent Yemen (see Figures 1a and b). Thus far,
poultry (both legal and illegal), poultry-related livelihoods in a region which is already suffering the Syrian Arab Republic has not officially
products and the migration of wild birds. from political unrest and deteriorated public reported the occurrence of H5N1 HPAI. In
The preliminary assessment based on and animal health services. 2015, H5N1 HPAI viruses clustering with
the available information and uncertainties those circulating in Egypt (clade 2.2.1) were
associated indicate that the risk of introduction
Introduction isolated from outbreaks reported in Gaza
of H5N1 HPAI for each of the nine regional Strip, Israel and The West Bank. Incursions
and neighbouring countries or territories varies H5N1 HPAI is a highly infectious viral of H5N1 were also detected in Turkey and
and is as follows: disease of domestic poultry that can affect Iran (Islamic Republic of) in 2015. France
High: Iran (Islamic Republic of), Israel, a wide range of bird species, including wild, reported H5N1 HPAI outbreaks between
Jordan, the Syrian Arab Republic and migratory birds. Avian influenza viruses that October 2015 and April 2016 in the
Turkey 1
hat is, reservoir species for H5N1 virus that migrate
T southwest of the country; however, genetic
Medium: Gaza Strip, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia from the Siberian breeding sites to the Iraqi wetlands characterization of the virus revealed that it
and The West Bank during the autumn and then to the opposite direction was a reassortant of European avian influenza
in spring.
VOL 36 September 2016 | empres watch
Hazard identification
The hazard is identified as the H5N1 HPAI virus
recently reported in the Middle East in Lebanon
and Iraq during late 2015 and early 2016.
Risk assessment
The confirmation of outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI
in the Middle East means that neighbouring
countries in the region and beyond are
potentially at risk of introduction through
The black dot in Iraq indicates an H5N1 HPAI suspected event in poultry in May 2016
Source: EMPRES-i, 2016 multiple risk pathways. A qualitative risk
assessment and a risk factor analyses were
undertaken. A rapid qualitative risk assessment
was conducted following the OIE framework
Figure 1d. Bar chart of HPAI outbreaks in the Middle East (20062016) (OIE, 2004). To assess the risk of introduction
the following risk pathways were considered:
imports of live poultry (both legal and illegal,
associated with movement of refugees);
Azerbaijan Israel Turkey
imports of poultry-related products,
150 Gaza Strip Jordan West Bank including transport (contaminated
Georgia Kuwait Yemen fomites/vehicles across borders);
wild bird migration;
Iran Lebanon
hunting of wild birds and illegal trade.
100
Iraq Saudi Arabia Pathways through which HPAI could be
released from Lebanon and Iraq to non-
Numbers
Sep 2007
Dec 2007
May 2015
May 2008
Aug 2015
Nov 2005
Nov 2006
Aug 2007
Nov 2007
Oct 2005
Mar 2006
Mar 2011
Mar 2012
Mar 2015
Feb 2016
Feb 2006
Mar 2007
Oct 2007
Mar 2008
Feb 2007
Feb 2008
Feb 2011
Feb 2015
Apr 2016
Apr 2006
Apr 2010
Apr 2011
Apr 2015
Apr 2007
Jun 2015
Jun 2006
Jan 2016
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2010
Jan 2015
Jul 2015
Figure 2. Pathway for introduction of HPAI from currently infected countries to uninfected countries in the Middle East
P7
P3 Infected P8 P9
Live bird infection
Infected live poultry
not detected at HPAI
poultry transported to
border introduced
border
Outbreak
detected
P4 Traders and P10
Contaminated P13 Contaminated P16
Outbreak
occurence in
Iraq /Lebanon
P5 P11 P14 P17
Contaminated eggs Contaminated
Contaminated eggs eggs not
transported to HPAI
border intercepted at introduced
border
P6 P12 P15
Conditions for P18
Infected wild birds HPAI
Infected wild birds migration are
migrate far enough introduced
right
Source: FAO
Figure 3. Waterfowl flyways, H5N1 HPAI outbreaks and possible spread routes in 20042006
4
empres watch | VOL 36 September 2016
of H5N1 HPAI would have important biosecurity along the Syrian Arab Republic subsequently seeding viruses to these
consequences for the commercial sector border with Iraq and no information on the countries is considered low. The role of live
and small poultry holders as well as for food HPAI situation in the Syrian Arab Republic poultry trade is considered low to negligible.
security in each country assessed (results due to non-functional veterinary infrastructure, The overall risk of introduction of H5N1 into
not shown). Since H5N1 HPAI is a zoonotic it is likely that H5N1 HPAI virus has already the poultry population is low.
virus and therefore constitutes a public health been introduced in poultry populations there, Cyprus is considered at negligible risk
threat, communication among ministries and though they have not been reported to date. of incursion from the two infected countries
enhanced surveillance are as important as Iran (Islamic Republic of) is at similar risk given its geographic location (separated by
prompt reporting. judging from anecdotal evidence of informal sea), lack of poultry trade and the fact that it is
The regional risk map (Figure 5) based on trade at the Kurdish border with Iran (Islamic not on the wild bird migratory route.
risk factors such as extensive and intensive Republic of), but unlike the Syrian Arab The overall risk of HPAI spreading to non-
poultry density, lakes, rivers, estuaries and Republic, the veterinary systems for detection infected countries in the region is considered
wetlands highlighted differences in HPAI risk and response are operational. Jordan shares medium to high. This is based on the number
within and between countries in the region. borders with the Syrian Arab Republic and of countries at risk of incursion, the previous
Areas within Israel, Lebanon, The West Bank Iraq, and the movement of livestock, including incursion patterns of the disease in the
and Gaza Strip, and western and northern live poultry across borders from the Syrian region as well as consideration of poultry
parts of the Syrian Arab Republic are at high Arab Republic, is ongoing and is associated production, poultry and poultry commodities
risk for H5N1 HPAI presence if the disease with refugee movements. trade, wild bird migration routes, and sharing
is introduced (i.e. greater than 80 percent). Countries at medium risk of incursion of borders between affected and unaffected
Areas with lower to medium risk probabilities of H5N1 HPAI include Gaza Strip, Israel, countries, which may facilitate smuggling
were distributed across Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and The West Bank. For or informal trade of poultry and wild birds.
Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait Gaza Strip, Israel and The West Bank, there Disease control measures implemented in
and Saudi Arabia. Risk probabilities were is no evidence of substantive trade, either Iraq and Lebanon and their effectiveness
driven primarily by extensive poultry density legal or illegal from the affected countries. to contain H5N1 HPAI outbreaks would
(greater than 80 percent) rather than the Additionally, incursions may be mitigated also have an impact on the potential spread
presence of lakes or wetlands (0 percent). by high security concerns implemented at of this virus within those countries and
In conclusion, based on both the risk borders. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia share in at-risk neighbouring countries. There
assessment and the risk factor analyses, borders with Iraq and given that the extent is a high uncertainty on the reliability of
countries at high risk include Turkey and of spread in Iraq is not fully discerned, available data related to trade, poultry value/
the Syrian Arab Republic (particularly areas movement of infected live poultry is possible. marketing chains, poultry production systems,
near the Kurdistan region and the western Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are interactions between wild birds and poultry
area near the border with Lebanon) and Iran located along spring migration pathways production systems, and local wild water bird
(Islamic Republic of). Given the presence for wild birds travelling northwards but the species distribution patterns.
of high poultry production areas and low risk of wild birds becoming infected and
Bibliography
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(available at http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/country/iraq) 2013. Changes in autumn arrival of long-distance migratory birds in Southeast
Birdlife International. 2016b. Report on the hunting of migrant birds in the Asia. Climate Research 57(2): 13341. Accessed on 13 May 2016.
Lebanon and their conservation status in the EU (available at http://www. Hurlbert, A.H. & Liang, Z. 2012. Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration
komitee.de/sites/www.komitee.de/files/wiki/2011/02/CABS%20&%20 phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change. PLoS ONE.
LEM%20Lebanon%20bird%20hunting%20report%202013%20(en)%20.pdf). 7(2): e31662.
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7
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enhancing world food security, fighting transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and reducing FAO. Highly pathogenic avian influenza
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Vol. 36, September 2016. Rome.
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