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A partir de estas medidas se calcula la Ventaja Comparativa Revelada (RCA, por sus
siglas in ingls) para cada localidad en cada producto:
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
Una precisin relevante es que el clculo del RCA con los datos de exportaciones
utiliza al resto del mundo como referencia (Xp en este caso es el total de las
exportaciones mundiales del producto p, y X es el total de las exportaciones
mundiales de todos los productos). En cambio, los clculos con los datos de empleo
utilizan al total del pas como referencia (Xp en este caso es el total del empleo
formal del sector p, y X es el total del empleo formal de todos los sectores).
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
Donde:
Donde es un eigenvector de .
Cuando se usan los datos de exportaciones, se utilizan los valores para 2013 de los
PCI que han sido calculados en el Atlas Internacional de Complejidad Econmica con
base en el comercio mundial (http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu). Ntese que los clculos
de los indicadores de complejidad de las exportaciones por lugar (ICE segn
exportaciones) se hacen slo para los departamentos y ciudades con exportaciones
superiores a US$50 por habitante. Cuando se utiliza la informacin de empleo, los
clculos de complejidad por sector utilizan la informacin por sector/localidad
incluyendo solo los sectores con al menos 50 empleos formales en un mes
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
Por ende, lugares que estn ms cerca de producir un mayor nmero de productos
ms complejos tienen mayor complejidad potencial.
Nuevamente, cuando se trata de exportaciones se utilizan los PCI tomados del Atlas
de Complejidad Econmica Internacional, mientras que cuando se trata de la
complejidad de todos los sectores productivos con base en el empleo formal, se
utiliza slo la informacin para Colombia.
Dado que la mayora, pero no todos, los productos tienen al menos algn grado de
proximidad con muchos otros productos, el mapa de productos no podra
representar todos los 1.240 productos de la clasificacin a cuatro dgitos HS2 o
todas las conexiones entre ellos. Por lo tanto, se necesitan algunos criterios simples
de diseo para construir el mapa. En primer lugar, el mapa del producto es una red
conectada, lo que implica que no incluye islas aisladas de productos. En segundo
lugar, la visualizacin de la red tiene que ser relativamente parsimoniosa, debido a
que un exceso de enlaces creara una complejidad visual innecesaria que impedira
apreciar las conexiones ms relevantes. Para poner en prctica estos criterios, se
usa un algoritmo que ordena los valores de la matriz de proximidad en orden
descendente y tiene en cuenta el nmero mnimo de enlaces y la cantidad mxima
de posibles proximidades. Como resultado, la visualizacin del mapa de productos
incluye 865 nodos (productos) con un promedio de 4,6 bordes (enlaces) por nodo.
Los 375 productos que no quedan incluidos en el mapa del producto representan
slo el 1,1% del comercio mundial o el 0,96% de las exportaciones colombianas en
2014. Del mismo modo, el mapa de los sectores incluye 390 de los 444 cdigos de
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Limitaciones
Dado que los clculos por el lado de los productos y por el lado de los sectores se
llevan a cabo de forma independiente (los primeros con datos internacionales, stos
con datos colombianos), no existe una correspondencia entre ambos. Esto significa
que los datos de empleo no se muestran por producto, ni tampoco para las
actividades exportadoras por separado. Esto tambin significa que los rankings de
complejidad de los productos y de los sectores pueden diferir sustancialmente en
algunos casos (flores cortadas, por ejemplo). Del mismo modo, los productos con
mayor potencial no se corresponden necesariamente con los sectores con mayor
potencial (por un departamento o ciudad, no el pas en su conjunto ya que no hay
manera de determinar el potencial de los sectores a nivel nacional). No existen
criterios para determinar si son mejores las medidas de complejidad por el lado del
producto o por el lado de los sectores, simplemente porque captan diferentes
aspectos de las capacidades productivas. Nuestros mtodos de clculo no
proporcionan una medida del grado de confianza que se puede asignar a las
medidas de complejidad o a la identificacin de los productos o los sectores con
potencial. En general, la presencia y el potencial de los productos o sectores ms
complejos son ms difciles de predecir ya dichos productos o sectores ocurren con
menos frecuencia. Sin embargo, algunos productos o sectores pueden quedar
clasificados como de baja complejidad en contradiccin con el nivel aparente de
capacidades tcnicas requeridas en su produccin (por ejemplo, la extraccin de
petrleo), lo cual se debe a que son productos o sectores que ocurren en muchos
lugares que tienen pocas capacidades para producir otras cosas. Ciertos productos y
sectores que ocurren de manera muy poco frecuente y muy impredecible se
excluyen de los espacios de producto y de la industria como se explic
anteriormente. Sin embargo, las medidas de la complejidad de dichos productos se
incluyen en las tablas correspondientes y en los grficos de dispersin de productos
potenciales por lugar (no as en el caso de los sectores raros, para los cuales no se
pueden calcular las medidas de complejidad).
Ms informacin
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
In this document we describe the methods for calculating the economic complexity
variables presented in DATLAS. The tool contains two groups of metrics: those
based on exports of goods (HS Rev. 3, at 4 digits, using customs data from DIAN),
and those based on formal employment data of all industries producing either goods
or services (ISIC-AC, Rev. 3, at 4 digits, using social security data from PILA).
In the explanation that follows we describe the methods for the case of the export
data. However, precisions are made whenever the procedures for employment data
differ from those for export data. In the equations below, the sub-index c indicates
cities or departments, and the sub-index p indicates products (or industries). While
we do not use a sub-index for years in order to simplify notation, all calculations are
applied for each year separately (2008-2013).
We start with data for exports by product, year and locality (either cities or
departments, treated separately), organized in matrix form:
From this matrix, we build locality, product and total aggregates of Colombian
exports per year:
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
The RCA calculation with export data is made using the rest of the world as
benchmark (accordingly, Xp is the worldwide value of exports of product p, and X is
the total value of international trade in a given year). However, calculations on
employment data by industry use the Colombian totals as benchmark (Xp in this
case is the total formal employment in Colombia in industry p, and X is the total
formal employment in all industries).
This matrix indicates the products (or industries) that are relatively large in each
department or city. From this matrix we compute the Diversity indicator at the
locality level, and the Ubiquity indicator at the product (or industry) level that is,
the count of the number of products with relatively large exports for each locality,
and the count of the places that export a given product with a relatively high
intensity:
One metric of the complexity of a location is its diversity weighed by the relative
ubiquity of the products (or industries) in which it displays relative comparative
advantage levels larger than one. Similarly, the complexity of a product or industry
can be measured by its ubiquity weighed by the diversity of the localities that are
competitive in such product or industry. Extending this exercise ad infinitum,
correcting diversity with ubiquity and vice-versa with consecutive iterations, is
called the method of reflections. It can be expressed as follows:
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
Where:
Using vector notation, the calculation method can be written in a compact manner
as:
Where is an eigenvector of .
When working with export data, we use the PCI values by product for 2013 already
available at the International Atlas of Economic Complexity, which were calculated
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DATLAS COLOMBIA - MTODOS DE CLCULO/CALCULATION METHODS
using the method described above on international trade data at the country level
(http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu). However, export complexity calculations by locality
(ECI of exports) are made only for departments and cities that export more than $50
per capita. When using employment data, ICI values are calculated on employment
levels per industry/locality combination, including only industries with at least 50
formal employees in an average month, and only localities with at least 10
industries with 50 or more formal employees. Industry complexity calculations by
locality (ECI of industries) are presented only for departments and cities. Below
these thresholds the composition of exports or employment is unstable and/or lacks
representativeness.
Technological proximity between products (or industries) and distance from a location
to a product or industry
Building on the proximity metric between pairs of products, we estimate the density
of a location around a product as the sum of the proximities between the products
that a locality exports with RCA >1 and each given product:
The distance from a locality to a product is measured as the unit minus the density
value.
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Calculations of the Complexity Outlook Index and the Complexity Outlook Gain
The Complexity Outlook Index (COI) of a locality is the sum of the densities for the
products in which a location has RCA lower than 1, multiplied by their PCIs.
Finally, the Complexity Outlook Gain (COG) of a product in a location is the COI gain
that a locality would observe by adding a given product to its export mix. This
metric takes into account both the immediate gain of adding the product and the
indirect
gain
of
becoming
closer
to
other
products
with
RCA
lower
than
1.
The product and industry spaces are visualizations of the proximities between
products or industries calculated as explained above.
Since most, but not all, products have at least some degree of proximity with many
other products, the product space cannot represent all the 1,240 products in the
HS2 four-digit classification or all the connections between them. Therefore, some
simple design criteria are needed to construct the space. First, the product space has
to be a connected network, which implies avoiding islands of isolated products.
Second, the network visualization has to be relatively sparse, because too many
links create unnecessary visual complexity obscuring the most relevant connections.
To implement these criteria, an algorithm is used, which sorts the values of the
proximity matrix in descending order and takes into account the minimum number
of links and the maximum possible sum of proximities. As a result, the visualization
of the product space includes 865 nodes (products) with an average of 4.6 edges
(links) by node. The 375 products that are not included in the product space account
for only 1.1% of world trade or 0.96% of Colombian exports in 2014. Similarly, the
industry space includes 390 of the 444 ISIC four-digit industry codes, with the
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Caveats
Since the product and industry calculations are done independently (the former
with international data, the latter with Colombian data), there is no correspondence
between both. This means that employment data are not shown by product or
separately for exporting activities. This also means that product and industry
complexity rankings may differ substantially in some cases (cut flowers, for
instance). Similarly, the products with the most potential do not necessarily
correspond with the industries with the most potential (for a department or city,
not the country as a whole since there is no way to determine industry potential at
the national level). No criteria exist to determine whether the product or the
industry measures are better, simply because they capture different aspects of
productive capabilities. Our methods of calculation do not provide a measure of the
degree of confidence that can be attached to the complexity rankings or the
potential rankings of products or industries. In general, the presence and potential
of more complex products or industries is harder to predict because they occur less
frequently. However, some products or industries may be ranked as low complexity
when they may not be complex in view of the technical capabilities required in their
production (such as petroleum), because they happen to occur in many countries
with few other productive capabilities. Products and industries that occur too rarely
and unpredictably are excluded from the product and industry spaces as explained
above. However, the complexity measures for those products are included in the
corresponding tables and in the scatters of potential products by place (not so for
the rare industries, for which complexity measures cannot be computed).
For a more detailed discussion on the conceptual basis of the Economic Complexity
Metrics, and to find further relevant technical literature, we invite you to visit the
Atlas of Economic Complexity (http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu) and to download the
book (http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/book).
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