Talibi 1

September 12 2017

Chances of Flood: How Public Gets Mislead by Wordplay

The major floods in recent days in four countries, United States, Bangladesh, India and

Nepal have brought the reality of global warming and climate change to the fore. Referring to the

inundation in Houston by Hurricane Harvey, authors Nadja Popovich and Claire O’Neill clarify

what a “500-year flood” means. In their New York Times article, “A ‘500-Year Flood’ Could

Happen Again Sooner Than You Think. Here’s Why”, they explain that the term has nothing to

do with timing but with chance of a flood occurring. They refer to President Trump’s misleading

tweet which calls the flood as once in a 500-year occurrence whereas the reality is that one

occurred last year and another in 2001. They further clarify that misleading phrases “500- year

flood” or “100-year flood” are widely used by government officials and are misunderstood by

the public. What they actually mean is: “a 500-year event has a 1 in 500 chance of occurring in a

single year” (Popovich and O'Neill). Which means that in a flood zone, there is a 1 in 500

possibility that the same area will witness a flood of the same magnitude in the same year. The

probability is monitored by the scientists who study historical trends in the area. And a number

of irregularities in climatic catastrophes are being attributed to the changing dynamics of urban

living space. Quoting Dr. Knight, the authors write: “we’re looking at historical data when really

we have something that is called non-stationarity” (Popovich and O'Neill). By this they mean

that there is constant change in the world’s landscape, it is no longer stationary or unmoving.

Which according to them explains the severe flood conditions in Houston as the urban landscape

has changed over the years, making it more susceptible to flood waters. Kevin Trenberth, a

scientist from National Center for Atmospheric Research predicts that this could become a 50 to

100-year event rather than a 500-year event due to climate change.

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It is surprising that despite the research and studies presented by scientists, people still

deny climate change and are delusional about acknowledging the human factors involved in

playing god and causing natural disasters. Before reading this article I too like the rest of the

public misunderstood the 500-year or 100-year event to mean that it would come by once in a

few hundred years. But now it makes a lot of sense that scientists are actually talking about

probabilities in a given year. We can see that as urban living is increasing so is the strain on

natural resources. Green spaces are disappearing to give way to concrete habitats for men, this is

affecting the eco-system as well as putting increased demands on old infrastructure. By the year

2100 scientists are predicting a 2-5 degrees centigrade change in temperature which although

seems minor but could be devastating for certain areas, especially if the carbon dioxide

emissions are not controlled (Archer).

The latest hurricane Irma to hit Florida and move up to Georgia only a week after

Hurricane Harvey is another indication that changes in climate are happening with destructive

results. With drought conditions in the western part of the country, leading to forest fires in

California and excessive precipitation in the south-eastern part of the country leading to floods,

power outages, property damage, loss of life, ocean floors affected have all lead to emergency

situations which the government is finding hard to compensate and secure. But with the

country’s inopportune withdrawal from Paris climate agreement in June, the government has

expressed its denial of scientific research on climate change and the future of the earth seems

dire. The probability of natural disasters occurring at a faster rate with less gaps between the

events seems to be on the rise. Unless steps are taken today to control gas emissions, lessen the

carbon print and decrease in killings of vegetation and animal life, the future that we leave for

our children will be sorely bleak and devastating.

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References

Archer, David. Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons

Inc,, 2012.

Popovich, Nadja and Claire O'Neill. "A ‘500-Year Flood’ Could Happen Again Sooner Than

You Think. Here’s Why." 28 August 2017. The New York Times.

<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/28/climate/500-year-flood-hurricane-

harvey-

houston.html?action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=rank&module=package

&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront>.