Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forecasting
DSC4812
Year module
BARCODE
CONTENTS
Page
1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 3
2 PURPOSE AND OUTCOMES ........................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Purpose .......................................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 Outcomes ....................................................................................................................................... 3
3 LECTURER AND CONTACT DETAILS......................................................................................... 5
3.1 Lecturer ........................................................................................................................................... 5
3.2 Department ..................................................................................................................................... 5
3.3 University ........................................................................................................................................ 5
4 RESOURCES ................................................................................................................................. 5
4.1 Prescribed books ............................................................................................................................ 5
4.2 Computer software ......................................................................................................................... 5
4.3 Documents on myUnisa .................................................................................................................. 5
4.3.1 Official study material ..................................................................................................................... 5
4.3.2 Additional resources ....................................................................................................................... 5
4.4 Library services and resources information .................................................................................... 6
5 ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................................... 6
5.1 Assessment plan ............................................................................................................................ 6
5.2 Assignments ................................................................................................................................... 7
6 IN CLOSING ................................................................................................................................. 10
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Dear Student
1 INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the module FORECASTING presented by the Department of Decision Sciences.
Because this is a fully online module, you need to use myUnisa to download study material
(tutorial letters and additional resources) and to submit your assignments. You will therefore
need to visit the DSC4812 website on myUnisa frequently.
To get started visit the website https://my.unisa.ac.za and login with your student number and
password. (If you haven’t used myUnisa before, you will need to create a password.)
Learning outcome 1
Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of how to decompose a time series.
Assessment criteria
Knowledge and understanding of the basic principles of the decomposition of a time series are
demonstrated by
identifying the pattern in time series data
decomposing the pattern into the different components (trend, cycle and seasonality)
calculating single and double moving averages
applying the additive decomposition method on a time series data set
applying the multiplicative decomposition method on a time series data set
making forecasts with the additive or multiplicative decomposition methods
evaluating the fitted models.
Learning outcome 2
Demonstrate knowledge and understanding on how to apply exponential smoothing methods on
a data set.
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Assessment criteria
Learning outcome 3
Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of simple linear regression.
Assessment criteria
Knowledge and understanding of simple linear regression are demonstrated by
fitting an explanatory model relating Y and X
forecasting future values with the model
evaluating the model.
Learning outcome 4
Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of multiple linear regression.
Assessment criteria
Knowledge and understanding of the basics of multiple regression are demonstrated by
selecting a short list of variables from a long list of variables to be included in an initial
multiple regression model
fitting a multiple regression model on a data set with two or more explanatory variables
evaluating the fitted model
identifying the optimal set of explanatory variables
forecasting future values with the model
evaluating the fitted model and comparing different models.
Learning outcome 5
Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of the Box-Jenkins methodology for ARIMA
models.
Assessment criteria
Knowledge and understanding of the basics of the Box-Jenkins methodology are demonstrated
by
examining correlations in time series data
examining stationarity of time series data
identifying an appropriate ARIMA model to be fitted to time series data
estimating the parameters for the model
evaluating the model (diagnostic checking)
making forecasts with ARIMA models.
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When you contact the Lecturer, please do not forget to always include your student number and
the module code. This will help the Lecturer to assist you.
3.2 Department
The Department of Decision Sciences can be contacted as follows:
Telephone: 012 433 4684
e-mail: qm@unisa.ac.za
3.3 University
To contact the University, you should follow the instructions in the Studies@Unisa brochure.
Remember to have your student number available when you contact the University.
4 RESOURCES
4.1 Prescribed books
At http://otexts.com/fpp/ you will find a free online textbook by Rob J Hyndman and George
Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: principles and practice.
Topic 1: Regression
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4.4 Library services and resources information
For brief information, go to www.unisa.ac.za/brochures/studies
For detailed information, go to the Unisa website at http://www.unisa.ac.za/ and click on
Library.
For research support and services of personal librarians, go to
http://www.unisa.ac.za/Default.asp?Cmd=ViewContent&ContentID=7102.
5 ASSESSMENT
5.1 Assessment plan
This module includes three compulsory assignments and a final assignment called a portfolio.
The portfolio is regarded as the examination for this module. The assignments will be marked
with relevant feedback.
The questions must be answered in full sentences with references to the relevant graphs or
printouts included. Embed all the graphs and printouts in the text in ONE pdf document to be
submitted on myUnisa.
All the assignments must be submitted on or before the due dates. Late assignments
will not be accepted on myUnisa.
Each assignment counts 33,3% towards your year mark, which in turn contributes 45% of
the final mark. The final assignment, the portfolio, will count 55% towards the final mark.
This final assignment (portfolio) is regarded as the examination for this module, and there is no
formal examination session.
You must obtain a subminimum of 40% for Assignment 04 to pass the module. This means that
even if you have received good marks for the first three assignments, but do not obtain 40% or
more for Assignment 04, you will not pass.
The completion of assignments is an important part of this module — it is only by doing the
assignments that you can be sure that you really understand the material. It is therefore in your
own best interests to complete all the assignments. If you encounter problems with a question,
please contact the lecturer for help or advice. The unique number, the relevant study material,
and the due dates for submission for each assignment are as follows:
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5.2 Assignments
Use the free online textbook by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting:
principles and practice.
Preparation
2. Chapter 13 Resources
Time series course, Slides on 1. Introduction to forecasting
Economic Forecasting course, Slides on
1. Using R
2. Getting started
3. The forecaster’s toolbox
Questions
2. Skin cancer rates have been steadily increasing over recent years. It is thought that this
may be due to ozone depletion. The following data are ozone depletion rates in various
locations and the rates of melanoma (a form of skin cancer) in these locations.
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Ozone dep (%) 5 7 13 14 17 20 26 30 34 39 44
Melanoma (%) 1 1 3 4 6 5 6 8 7 10 9
a. Plot melanoma against ozone depletion and fit a straight line regression model to the
data.
b. Plot the residuals from your regression against ozone depletion. What does this say
about the fitted model?
c. What percentage of the variation in rates of melanoma is explained by the regression
relationship?
d. Scientists discovered that 40% of ozone was depleted in a certain region. What
would you expect to be the rate of melanoma in this area? Give a prediction interval.
e. Explain the assumptions and limitations in your prediction. What other factors may
play a role?
Preparation
Questions
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Preparation
Questions
Write a 15 – 20 pages report on the application of all the forecasting methods covered in this
module on a data set. Provide references to all sources that you use.
The methods are covered in
Topic 1: Regression
Topic 2: Time series decomposition and Exponential Smoothing
Topic 3: ARIMA models
The data set must be a single variable time series with at least 100 observations. It can be
primary or secondary data. Refer to the source from which it is obtained. In the report, include
the values of the variable and describe the variable used.
Use a computer package, such as R, with which you should be familiar by now, to apply the
forecasting methods on the data. Include the output as well as graphs and tables in the report.
Interpret the output of each forecasting method on the data and describe your conclusions
clearly.
Compare the suitability of the forecasting methods for the chosen data set and justify your
choice.
The report should consist of an introduction, a description of the chosen data, the application of
each of the forecasting methods on the data set, and the comparison of the results and your
conclusions. References should be shown in a proper reference list/bibliography.
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The following is an example of a rubric that may be used for marking your project. Use it to
check the requirements for the portfolio.
The technical finish will count 20% and the content will count 80% of the final mark.
Technical finish
Topic Excellent Very good Average Below Bad
average
4 3 2 0
1
Academic
language
4
Mathematical
correctness
4
Tables/Figures
4
Referencing
4
Structure/Layout
4
Total 20
Content
Topic Marks
Data set presentation 10
Regression 20
Decomposition/ 20
Exponential Smoothing
ARIMA 20
Comparison 10
Total 80
6 IN CLOSING
Do not hesitate to contact your lecturer by email if you are experiencing problems with the
content of this tutorial letter or any aspect of the module.
Enjoy the forecasting journey!
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