Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

Bahirdar University

School of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

(Case study on Beles Hydro Power Stations)

By

Woldemariam Worku

Advisor Dr. TAsew T.

Thesis proposal for Partial Fulfillment of Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in Power System Engineering

December, 2017

Bahirdar, Ethiopia

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

I. Executive summary
Reliability and availability of the individual generating units of Beles Hydro Electric Power Station have been evaluated and
presented in this paper from February 2012 to June 2017. The operational data for the above period was collected and analyzed by using
Markov model. From the collected data and based on the type of faults faced by each generating unit, different states are defined
known as Markov states. The reliability indices such as repair rate (µ), failure rate (y), mean time to repair (MTTR), and mean time to
failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) have been determined. The state probabilities for each of these states have also
been calculated, and finally reliability and availability have been determined leading to establishing the reasons behind the poor reliability
and availability.

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

II. Table of content

I. Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................................................... i

II. Table of content ......................................................................................................................................................................................... ii
III. Lists of Achronym ................................................................................................................................................................................ iii
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
2. Statement of problem .................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
3. Review of Literature ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
4. Objective ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
4.1. Main objective ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6
4.2. Specific objective ................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
5. Significance of the study............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
6. Scope of the study ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
7. Work plane of the research ........................................................................................................................................................................... 8
8. Cost break down of the research ................................................................................................................................................................ 10
9. Reference .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

III. Lists of Achronym

𝝺 Failure rate

µ Repair rate

MTTR Mean time to repaire

MTTF Mean time to failures

MTBF Mean time between failuers

HPP Hydropower plant

MW Mega watt

EEP Ethiopian electric power

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

1. Introduction
Hydro-electricity plays an important role in the safe, stable, and efficient operation of the electric power system. Nowadays, the size of
hydro power plants (HPPs) and the structure complexity of the hydraulic-mechanical-electrical system have been increasing. The
proportion of electricity generated by intermittent renewable energy sources have also been growing.

Hydroelectric power is the cheapest source of power whenever the natural resources are readily available. Ethiopia has plenty of favorable
sites where hydroelectric power can be economically generated. The exploitation and development of these unused hydropower resources
of the country need careful planning (short and long term), proper timing, coordinated efforts among all relevant government bodies,
technical assistance, and most of all financial resources in order to transform the hydropower potentials into reality

The Ethiopian Electric Light and power Authority (EELPA), which was established in 1956, after having undergone
restructuring had been reorganized as Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo) .The Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation
(EEPCo) as public electric utility enterprise is named in 1997 for indefinite duration by regulation No. 18/1997.

Now as per the new restructuring of Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation the corporation is split in to two companies namely
Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU) and Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP). The EEP is formed by Council of Minister‟s Regulation No.
302/2013 dated 27th of December, 2013. EEP is responsible for design and development of electric generation, transmission, and
substations and all operational and maintenance tasks. And EEU is established by Council‟s of Minister‟s Regulation No. 303/2013 dated
27thof December 2013 is responsible for administration of electric power distribution networks, purchase bulk electric power and sell
energy to customer.

The company installed generation capacities is around 4400 MW from hydro, wind, geothermal and diesel power plants. It uses a
transmitting lines operating at 400kV, 232kV, 132kV 66kV, 45kv, 33kv and 15kv spread across the country. Presently, 190 substations;

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

more than 687km of 400 kV and 3,550 km of 230 kV lines constitute the HV transmission system; 4,038km of 132kV; 2,234 km
of 66 kV and 476 km of 45 kV lines constitute the sub-transmission system are used to supply electrical power to customers. The 33 kV
and 15 kV primary voltages are used for electric power distribution.

The electric energy supply systems are the interconnected system (ICS) and the self-contained system (SCS).The main energy source of
the interconnected system (ICS) is hydro power plant and wind farms and for SCS its main source are mini- hydro plants and diesel power
Generators allocated in various areas of the country. The supplied Electric power is generated from hydro, wind, geothermal and
fuel sources in scattered and remote geographical location of the country. And then transmitted to the nearby step up transformers
around the generation site for upgrading and then the upgraded high kilo volt power is transmitted through transmission line to
substations

Electric power supply operation systems are continuous operations systems that need a careful design and the most efficient operation
management systems to assure the smooth function of the systems. But in the case of Addis Ababa frequent power interruptions become
common & usual in every place, including at international and continental meeting occasions. Now the power interruptions become
common problems in all parts of the country and a big challenge for the company. Unless this problem get immediate remedy it may
significantly hamper the country economy growth and worsen the lives of citizens.

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

2. Statement of problem
The operation of a generating unit requires a coordinated operation of hundreds of individual components [5]. Each component has a
different level of importance to the overall operation of the operating single unit. Failure of some pieces of equipment particularly the
auxiliaries might cause little or no impairment in the operation of a generating unit. Still, some might cause immediate or total
shutdown of the unit if they fail. The failure rates of all the various components of a generating unit contribute to the overall
unavailability of the unit. The unavailability of a generating unit due to component failure is known as its „forced outage rate‟. Forced
outages are not planned or maintenance outages. In practice, “forced outages” represent the risk that a unit‟s capacity will be
affected by limitations beyond a generator‟s control. An outage (including full outage, partial outage or a failed start) is considered
“forced” if the outage cannot reasonably be delayed beyond 48 hours.

Interruption of power is common in Ethiopia everywhere, even though the extent varies. The problems of power interruption arise at the
Generation power plant, transmission power system and distribution power system at large. In order to satisfy customers‟ demand these
power systems must be reliable and efficient.

The high rate of electricity demand requires stable and continuous supply of electrical power to consumers. Hence improvement of the
operational performance of a nation‟s electric supply is vital for its economic and social developments. Because electricity is used for the
twenty four (24) hours of the day, it has come to play an important role in all aspects of our life. It has been observed that the energy
generated by the major hydro-electric power stations in Ethiopia does not meet up with the demand. Consumers of electricity both
domestic and industrial have been looking forward to improved performance from what is presently obtainable. For this reason, several
efforts have been made over the years to improve the performance of the Power Holding Company of Ethiopia (EEP)

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

Over the year‟s operation of the Beles hydro-electric power station in Ethiopia, different types of faults have occurred on the units in
the station and also on its associated auxiliary equipment resulting in forced outages of the units which have contributed to the
apparent unreliability of the station.

3. Review of Literature
Reliability can be expressed in different ways and in power system, it is mainly defined as the ability of the components in generation,
transmission and distribution systems to perform a required function, under given environmental and operational conditions and for a
stated period of time. Several techniques have been used in the reliability evaluation of power generation, transmission and distribution
systems, which considers different approaches different plants and using different models.

A modern power system is complex, highly integrated and very large. Fortunately, the system can be divided into appropriate sub-systems
or functional zones that can be analyzed separately. These functional zones are generation, transmission and distribution. Generation
system reliability is an important aspect in the planning of future capacity expansion. It provides a measurement of reliability or adequacy
to make sure that the total generation system capacity is sufficient to provide adequate electricity when needed. Power generation
companies, research centers and consultants, have investigated the best economical means of affecting the upgrade of hydropower plants.
The traditional objective of electric system planning is to supply electricity demand at minimum cost and with acceptable long-term
reliability that Supply continuously with wave quality. Whenever a discussion of power system reliability occurs, it always involves a
consideration of system states and whether they are adequate, secure, and can be attributed an alert, emergency, or some other designated
status. The concept of adequacy is considered as the existence of enough facilities within the system to satisfy the consumer demand.
These facilities include those necessary to generate sufficient energy and the associated transmission and distribution networks required to
transport the energy to the actual consumer load points. The reliability of a generating station is a function of the reliability of the
constituent generating units. Accurate estimates of the reliability of generating unit are needed for generating, capacity planning and to aid

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

improved criteria for future designs and operations. Reliability assessment of a generating system is fundamentally worried with
predicting if the system can meet its load demand adequately for the period of time intended. Based on reliability analysis, the standard
requires the development of root cause analysis aiming at defining the basic cause; mostly it can be the failure of a component of an
undesirable behavior of equipment of a processing plant.

Gupta et al. [1] stated that it is necessary to maintain the thermal power plant to provide reliable and uninterrupted electrical supply
for a long time. Buzacott et.al.,[2] explained that reliability block diagrams of a system of independent units could be reduced to
find the reliability of a non -maintained system, reduced to find the availability of the repairable system, MTBF and availability of the
individual units. John et.al., [3] found the usage of the Markov approach for calculating the failure time measures such as availability,
mean cycle time, and mean time to first failure to analyze repairable and also discussed various special techniques such as lumping states
or decomposing the system into independent subsystems can simplify the analysis considerably for a large system. Papazoglou
et.al., [4] used a Markov-chain model and the numerical difficulties associated with large transition-probability matrices were reduced
by a systematic ordering of the system states and also described a technique for the systematic merging of processes corresponding to
systems exhibiting symmetries. Papadopoulos et.al. [5] Described the concept of frequency of failures during the useful life period was
programmed by mathematical reliability model. It starts from the basic configuration component failure-rate data and uses the tie-set
approach to carry out the reliability analysis of the system. Allan et.al., [6] presented an approach for determining the effect of terminal
station failures on station-originated outages and the results used to assess the reliability of the terminal stations themselves and as
input data to a composite system reliability evaluation technique.

Soeth et.al., [7] discussed about Reliability of generator system by using Markov models. Variations outage post probability
distributions and their impact on unit indices were also investigated. Majeedet.al. [8] introduced a Markov reliability model for
Dokan hydro power station by studying the operational data of this station for period of five years. The availability and reliability of
individual units and for the power plant were evaluated by taking into availability from the operational data of Pathri Power
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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

Stations [9] (India). The most important reliability indices are found namely failure rate (λ), repair rate (μ), MTTR, MTBF, MTTF
through data collection and analysis. Failure rate, repair rate of all the states were found from the classified data. Dash et.al., [10]
computed Reliability and availability of the individual generating units of Balimela Hydro Electric Power Station were evaluated and
analyzed by using a Markov model and also this paper determined the reliability indices such as repair rate (µ), failure rate (λ),
Mean Time To Repair (MTTR), Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) .From the above literature
survey, it is identified that the Thermal Power Plant consists of complex network of units.

There occur failures at different components of the units this ultimately leads to the turn off of the units, this cause‟s considerable loss of
availability of the units. If we consider the outages of the units which affect the availability of the plant and the reasons behind it, the
availability of the units can be improved. To mitigate these limitations, in this paper Markov approach is used to evaluate the
reliability and availability of thermal plant as follows. In this work Beles hydropower Plant has been taken as a case study.

4. Objective
4.1. Main objective
The main objective of this research is to evaluate the MTTR, MTTF, failure rate, repair rate and the probabilities of the various defined
failure stats of Hydro power plant ( Beles hydropower plant) using two states of Markov model, there by reliability and availability of
the individual units over a period of six years

4.2. Specific objective

 To study the Frequency of Scheduled maintenance of each individual generating unit of the station.
 To Evaluate MTTR, MTBF, MTTF, rate, repair rate, probability of occurrence of failure for the components/ subsystems of
individual generating unit.

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

 To carry out Markov model and State space diagram of hydro power station.
 To apply the common concepts of probability to find the overall reliability of Hydro power station
 To maximize plant reliability and availability performance

5. Significance of the study

This study is presents a theoretical and practical implication for electric power reliability and availability. Second, this study will show
the causes and impacts of electric power interruptions and importance of managing power interruptions and lose and its urgency. The
finding identifies the focal problem and priority areas for decision makers. Additionally, it will also provide a reliable data in relation to
the cause of power interruption and lose for researchers, academics and students.

6. Scope of the study

The study is limited to Beles hydropower plant, but data gathering covers parts of the country power plant .. Data are collected from
generation, transmission and distribution systems. In regarding to power infrastructure observation is applied. The study uses the recent
six years outage report data of beles power plant.

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

7. Work plane of the research

The project plan given below is the breakdown of the project stages and the time schedule.

November December January February March April May June

Duration
No. Activity Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
(Weeks)
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

1 Literature review

2 Interview

Collection of
3
data

4. Analyzing data

5. Progress report

Progress report
6. presentation

Draft report
7. preparation

Draft report
8. Compilation

May
Draft report
9.
submission
30,2010

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

Final report
10. preparation

Final report June

11.
submission
30, 2010

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

8. Cost break down of the research

The costs break down and total cost required for conducting this thesis is show below

Proposed Financial Requirement

S.N Item Unit Quantity Unit Cost Total Cost Remark
(ETH Birr)
1 Personal expenditure
 Field substance

 Transport 100 100

2 Service:
 Photocopy 50 50

 Binding 30 30

3 Equipments
 For experiments:

 Data collection
 Workshop practice

4 Consumable:
 Stationary materials 300 300

5 Communication:
 Fax: 100 100
 Tel: 200 200

Total amount

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 Reliability, Availability and Performance Evaluation of Ethiopian Hydropower plant

9. Reference
[1]Ethiopian Electric utility strategic plan, July 2014

[2]Skof, L. V., Ontario Hydro Surveys on Power System Reliability Summary of Customer
Viewpoints, Ontario

[3]Hydro Rep. R&MR 80-12, EPRI Seminar, 1983.

[4]Billinton, R., 'Evaluation of reliability worth in an electric power system', Reliability

Engineering and System Safety, 46 (1994), pp. 15-23

[5]Adamu M., Adegboye B., et al, Reliability Evaluation of Kainji Hydro-Electric Power Station
in Nigeria, Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy, vol 2(2), 2012

[6] R.Billington, R.J. Ringlee, A.J. wood, power system reliability calculations, 1973

[7] Tampa Dorji, “Reliability Assessment of distribution systems including a case study of
Wang due Distribution system in Bhutan‟‟ Bhutan, 2009

[8] R.Billinton, E.Khan, A security based approach to composite power system reliability
evaluation, Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 7 (1992) 65-72.

[9] Marvin Rausand, Arnljot Hoyland, System Reliability Theory Models, Statistical Methods
and Applications,Second Edition, Wiley Inter science, 2004, pp. 4-7, 15, 368.

[10] J. H. Gummer, D. M. Barr, and G. P. Sims, “Evaluation criteria for upgrading hydro power
plant,” International Water Power & Dam Construction, vol. 45, Dec. 1993, pp. 24-31

[10]B. S. Dhillon. Design Reliability: Fundamentals and Applications. Canada: Ottawa, Ontario,
CRC Press, 1999

[11]Skof, L. V., Ontario Hydro Surveys on Power System Reliability Summary of Customer
Viewpoints, Ontario Hydro Rep. R&MR 80-12, EPRI Seminar, 1983.

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