Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Evaluating 1st
Anniversary of Trump
Presidency
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 18, 2018
Q1. Please describe the first year of Mr Trump’s presidency with one word or
sentence, and explain the reason why you choose that word/sentence.
ANSWER: Disruptive. Trump came to office promising to “drain the swamp,”
renegotiate free trade agreements, and make allies contribute more to security as part
of his clarion call America First and as stepping stones to Make America Great Again.
Since neither Trump nor his White House staff have experience at this level of
government, the Administration remains dysfunctional and this has led to disruption
of relations between the White House and Congress and between the Republican and
Democratic parties.
Externally, normal relations with key trading partners as well as allied has been
disrupted. Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership and Paris
Agreement on Climate Change has led key allies such as Japan, Australia, Germany and
France to go their own way and act more independently than before.
Trump revels in disruption because he believes it gives him leverage to achieve his
objectives. Disruption puts Trump centre stage.
Q2. Which action(s) and remark(s) by Mr Trump have surprised you the most during
the past year? (we all know that he is an unpredictable president), and why?
ANSWER: I have been most surprised by Trump’s tweets and public remarks on
immigration and racial issues. Trump’s actions have polarised the United States,
incurred criticism from members of the Republican Party and diminished the
America’s soft power. What is appealing about America when commentators question
the mental fitness of Trump to be president and debate whether or not he is a racist.
Trump has the lowest approval rating of any elected American president in his first
year in office; at the end of 2017 his approval rating averaged 39%. Because Trump’s
tweets and remarks have continued to polarise the United States this could damage
the Republican Party at mid-term elections in November when all members of the
House of Representatives and one-third of Senate will stand for election. Trump’s
actins appear counter-productive.
Also, Trump’s tweets on North Korea have surprised me. For example, he called Kim
Jong-un a “little rocket man” and Trump bragged that his nuclear button was bigger
than Kim’s. Trump’s tweets have diminished the prestige of the Office of the
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President. Nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula is a deadly serious matter

and I hold concerns that Trump has made this a personal issue.
I am also surprised by Trump’s repeated statements that he respects President Putin,
and wants a good relationship with Moscow. These remarks run counter to the
unanimous finding of the U.S. intelligence community that Russia interfered in U.S.
elections.
Q3. How has the US changed since Mr Trump came to the White House, both
domestically and internationally?
ANSWER: Since Trump came into office the U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery
from the earlier global financial crisis. The U.S. economy is growing at just under three
per cent. The U.S. stock market has hit a record high. As a result of his changes to the
tax law, there are signs major companies will be repatriating their funds back to the
U.S. and this will lead to a spurt in job creation. Unemployment has fallen. Trump can
claim some of the credit for this but not all since economic growth had already begun
to revive under President Obama.
On the political side, the Democrat Party has become the party of resistance to Donald
Trump but the Democrats have yet to reach consensus on an alternate platform of
domestic policies. The Republican Party is badly divided. One part has become
Trump’s party. Many incumbent Republicans have decided not to stand for re-election
in November 2018. Trump has picked a fight with the so-called “mainstream media”
with his repeated claims of “fake news,” attacked the competence of federal judges
and the FBI, ridiculed members of Congress thus bringing the America system of
government into disrepute.
However, Trump retains his support base among nationalistically inclined blue collar
workers with his opportunist populist slogans.
Internationally, Trump’s policies have created heightened strategic uncertainty across
the globe. With the exception of the wars against Islamic State, Assad’s regime in Syria
and the Taliban in Afghanistan, the U.S. is not showing leadership. Arguably Trump is
no longer the “leader of the free world.”
Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership and Paris Agreement on
Climate Change, and his threat to walk away from both the North American Free Trade
Agreement and from the Iran nuclear deal, have caused U.S. allies to act more
independently from Washington. The lack of U.S. leadership has created space for
China to fill the vacuum and advance its interests. Russia has become emboldened to
push back against sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union after it seized
the Crimea.
The impasse in the Congress on approval of a long-term budget has under cut the
ability of the president to pursue long-term goals and it has undermined the credibility
of President Trump.
The bottom line is that the U.S. political system appears dysfunctional to the extent
that no agreement can be reached on long-term funding for the government, a
prerogative of the Congress. All that can be achieved is stop-gap legislation extending
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funding for a few months at a time. Meanwhile the president and politicians on both
sides continue to play the blame game.
Q4. And how has the White House changed the president who was an outsider in
politics?
ANSWER: This remains an open question because the White House is in disarray and
Trump resists changing his ways. There has been a huge turnover in staff. Trump sets
his own schedule; he spends hours on social media, watching cable news and
pounding out tweets (his so-called “executive time”). Trump makes frequent visits to
golf clubs that he owns, most notably Mar-a-Lago.
Trump often goes off message when speaking in public in front a teleprompter. Trump
is combative and refuses to acknowledge an error or misjudgement. He often
contradicts Cabinet members with his tweets.
The White House experience has not tamed Donald Trump and the relationship
remains a work in progress.
Q5. How has the world changed with Mr Trump in Washington?
ANSWER: Trump’s election has given a fillip to protectionism and anti-globalisation
and weakened, to a certain extent, multilateral institutions because of a lack of
leadership by the U.S. president. For example, Japan and Australia have attempted to
pick up the strategic slack by forging closer defence and security tied. They have also
moved into the void after Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP to negotiate a
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for a Trans Pacific Partnership.
France and Germany have become more independent and active in Europe and
further afield. Relations between the U.S. and the United Kingdom are experiencing
strains.
Trump’s America First drive has created the opportunity for China has become more
powerful, influential and assertive, particularly on economic issues and climate
change.
In Asia, China continues to militarise its features in the East China and South China
Seas. Japan is moving to lift restrictions on its military in order to become a “normal”
country. Tokyo has assumed a leadership role in knitting together the Quad – a forum
including Australia, India, Japan and the United States - with a focus on the Indo-Pacific
Region.
North Korea’s accelerated push to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles armed
with miniaturised nuclear warheads is picking up and has become the top security
issue facing the globe. Trump has responded in a robust and confronting manner
raising the risks of a nuclear conflict.
Q6. Please provide some comments about the future of Trump's presidency.
ANSWER: President Trump’s first term in office will end in January 2021 following
national elections in November 2020. In order for Trump to be re-elected in three
year’s time he must expand his support base to the wider American public. Trump will
face at least three major challenges.
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First, Trump must come through Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of
Russian interference in American politics unscathed. Such a result would embolden
Trump and strengthen his political position. But Trump’s position would be undercut
if he were implicated in obstruction of justice. While Trump could face impeachment
he will not be impeached.
Second, Trump must succeed in sustaining economic growth, creating jobs, and
modernising America’s infrastructure. To achieve these goals Trump must obtain
bipartisan consensus in the Congress to fund his programs and successfully
renegotiate “fair and reciprocal free trade agreements” with China, Canada and
Mexico, South Korea and other countries. This second challenge could prove difficult
to overcome if serious trade friction arises in U.S.-China relations or if Trump follows
through on his threat to quit the World Trade Organisation.
Third, Trump must respond successfully to and manage one or more unexpected
crises, such as a major terrorist attack in the United States or a major foreign policy
crisis, such as a military provocation by North Korea or a sudden deterioration on
relations with China.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Evaluating 1st Anniversary of

Trump Presidency,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 18, 2018. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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