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Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123


U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - 5
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 24, 2018

U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis will arrive in Hanoi on Wednesday. We


request your assessment of his visit. Could you please respond to the following
questions?
Q1. What is Secretary Mattis looking for from his Vietnamese counterpart?
ANSWER: Defense Secretary James Mattis’s main purpose is to sound out his
counterpart Minister of National Defense General Ngo Xuan Lich on what level of
engagement Vietnam wants to pursue and what specific needs Vietnam would like
to address.
Secretary Mattis will brief Lich on the general content of the newly released U.S.
National Defense Strategy (NDS) with its stress on developing relations with “allies
and partners.” The earlier U.S. National Security Strategy identified Vietnam and
three other Southeast Asian countries as important regional security partners. The
NDS promotes a “networked security architecture” that maintains regional stability
and ensures free access to the maritime commons or South China Sea.
Q2. What is your expectation of the outcome of Mattis’ first trip to Hanoi?
ANSEWER: Mattis’ visit marks a major step forward in defence relations between the
two countries. The very fact that Mattis is making visits to Indonesia and Vietnam at
this time is evidence of their importance to the U.S. objective of a “free and open
Indo-Pacific region.” Mattis likely will return to the region this year to visit China and
to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
Lich will be responsive to any offers of increased defence cooperation such as the
expansion of professional military education. Lich will likely push for some start to
defense technology sales that were mentioned in the 2015 Joint Vision Statement on
Defense Cooperation.
Q3. How will his visit affect the military relationship between Vietnam and the U.S.?
ANSWER: Secretary Mattis wants to build trust and create greater transparency in
the bilateral relationship with Vietnam. This is a sensitive issue within Vietnam’s
military. I think Mattis is the right person to advance bilateral relations and he will
get a positive response from Vietnam.
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Under the Trump Administration it is unlikely that human rights considerations will
affect any defense cooperation or arm sales. Vietnam likely will purchase a second
Hamilton-class cutter and perhaps defence technology equipment related to
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).
The U.S. Navy is expected to send a U.S. aircraft carrier to Tien Sa port, Da Nang in
March. This trip will be accompanied by a number of land-based activities such as
medical services.
Q4. Will Secretary Mattis’ visit shift U.S.-Vietnam relations?
ANSWER: It is striking that Vietnam just received a visit by Russia’s Defense Minster
General Sergei Shoigu. While Mattis’ visit will lead to a step up in bilateral defence
engagement between the U.S. and Vietnam, Vietnam will balance this with its
relations with other great powers. Vietnam’s approach is always gradual and
deliberate.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 5,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 24, 2018. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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